Over at National Review they're still arguing about whether Democrats will "switch out Biden." Their consensus: probably not.
It's insane that people are still talking about this. "Democrats" don't have any way to force Biden to drop out any more than "Republicans" can force Trump to drop out. Biden can't possibly make it any clearer that he's running, and at this point it's up to voters. End of story.
And when was the last time an incumbent president was pressured to drop out anyway? There's LBJ, and that was more than 50 years ago.
It's Biden vs. Trump. That's it. There's really no point in navel gazing about anything else.
"...the last time an incumbent president was pressured to drop out..." the party had a very strong candidate to step in. Who would that be now? (Don't answer; that's a rhetorical question.)
There is even less point in reading National Review.
+1
Not only can anyone not force Biden to drop out, but when Democrats recently had a chance to vote in South Carolina, he got something like 95% of the vote. Keep in mind, Trump barely broke through the 50% mark in Iowa and New Hampshire.
So he'll be the GOP nominee, for sure, but with a large chunk of the party not really wanting to see him on the ballot again. And then there's the fact that Trump has effectively hamstrung the GOP fundraising machine at the state and national level with his SuperPAC hoovering up all the donor money, which is going directly to his lawyers rather than any kind of coherent ground operation. I've read that his campaign team is supposedly much smarter and more professional than the ones he had in 2016 or 2020, but it's not clear what their Big Brains can do without a lot of money.
I didn't actually know that LBJ was pressured to drop out, despite being a 50+ year old relatively informed person, though my 50's-60's history is pretty weak.
The "pressure" was coming from four directions:
(1) Robert Kennedy's candidacy, focusing on the war;
(2) The behind-the-scenes pressure from party big-wigs, who felt there was too much dislike/distrust of Johnson among Americans who were tired of being misled about the war; and
(3) Some pretty strong self-directed pressure, feeling that he was simply out of energy to continue to pursue the Presidency and the war simultaneously; this, in turn, was likely due in part to...
(4) His failing health; his various health problems were seriously wearing him down.
A good summary is found in this lengthy article from NPR:
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/25/596805375/president-johnson-made-a-bombshell-announcement-50-years-ago
Regarding his health, it should be noted that LBJ "retired from the field of battle" at age 60 and he died just four years later, at 64. For a person whose life had been one of vigorous strength, this was a drastic downturn.
Yes, Lyndon Johnson was pressured to drop out. And Richard Nixon was elected. Twice.
We don't want to go there.
if it makes you feel better, i'm about the same age and didn't know either. looked it up when i read kevin's post.
well, there's always scotus
hahaha... i keed, i keed
"It's Biden vs. Trump" he says in the same week when SCOTUS is hearing an application to disqualify Trump, an application which in my opinion has a very good chance to succeed.
Your prophecy is noted.
"Very good chance" is not a prophecy, just an assessment.
I don't know. Salmon P Chase's bank might have a lien on the houses of several Justices. Jes' sayin'.
Without a conviction for insurrection or an Act of Congress, there's no way that SCOTUS is going to rule that Trump is ineligible.
If only. I don't see it happening, but if it does I predict Roberts and Kavanaugh tipping the scales to keep Trump off the ballot. The beauty of this will be the thousands of exploding Republican's heads. They will know how it feels to have a Supreme Court make decisions they can do nothing about.
Kavanaugh believes that the president is a King. I doubt he'd consider any action Trump took during his presidency as being disqualifying, and would likely use the failure of the Senate to convict in Trump's second impeachment as an indication of "congressional intent" as to Trump's eligibility for the ballot.
We already know how it feels to have a Supreme Court make decisions we can do nothing about.
In my opinion, it stands a snowball's chance in hell.
Ninth circle?
I think that if Trump dropped out or dropped dead tomorrow Biden might also drop out. I believe Biden thinks he is the only candidate who can beat Trump, and I think that’s correct.
I think you're right if Trump had died a year ago, but it might be unreasonable for Biden to drop out now.
I don' think their real point is to change Biden being the candidate. Their point is to keep the "Biden isn't fit" narrative going.
This. And to lend fuel to the "oh noes, a Biden-Trump rematch! Ugh, American's don't want to see these candidates anymore" narrative, when the reality is that Americans don't want _Trump_ running for president again, as the man is deeply unpopular, even within his own party.
But Biden is slightly older than Trump so I guess Democrats are in disarray and Biden is unable to deliver anything major (since the last major thing he delivered).
Good point. It's not like Biden was some bull in the Dem china shop, while every other Dem stands by wringing their hands with worry. You know, like Trump and the GOP. This is squarely their kind of problem, not the Dems.
So this post cheered me up. Kevin predicting something politically is a sure sign the opposite will happen.
Case in point: Four years ago Kevin wrote a political epitaph for Biden in one of his posts. We know how that (fortunately) turned out, don't we?
But 2024 is not the same as 2020, and certainly not the same as 1968 when Johnson bowed out. An elementary lesson from the Greek philosopher Heraclitus is:
"No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man."
As I've argued before, it does not matter who the GOP nominee is.
- If it's Trump, he'll motivate people who would otherwise not want to vote for Biden to vote against Trump and it'll be another landslide.
- If it's Haley, Trump will claim Haley and the GOP establishment were part of the conspiracy to keep him off the ballot and he'll end up depressing the vote for the GOP.
Haley is the leading legitimate Republican candidate.