According to YouGov, here's the latest breakdown of how partisans plan to vote:
Since the CNN debate, Trump has gained four points among Republicans while Biden has lost two points among Democrats.
This is a fairly remarkable performance from Democrats. There are two possibilities here. The first is that most of them are like me: Biden could be stuffed and mounted on a wall and I'd still vote for him if the only other choice was Trump. The second is that lots of Democrats are convinced that the debate, as Biden puts it, was just a "bad night." I hope that's not the case, since it would show a remarkable divorce from reality. That debate wasn't just a bad night. It was a complete catastrophe that showed a man who was lost and often incoherent. I wonder how many people refuse to see that?
We didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because we thought he was going to be a good president. And then he surprised us. He was a surprisingly effective president, and historians are going to rate his first term highly. I'm willing to believe that in his 2nd term, the team he has brought together to run the country will continue to over-impress.
He did exceed my expectations. He got more programs passed through a difficult Congress than I would have thought possible. He may not be quite the force he was in his first term, but given a better Congress, a second Biden administration could do more good yet. But i am concerned about a path to a Democratic victory. I am not convinced that the problem is the candidate; the problem is a lot of Americans who think TFG is their best choice for the White House, despite being unfit in every possible way.
Winning a couple of Senate seats and having 54-36 would change the world. President Bidne would have done even more without Sinema and Manchin gumming up the works.
We didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because we thought he was going to be a good president. And then he surprised us.
Speak for yourself. I thought Joe's tremendous amount of experience likely translated into a very solid presidency. I haven't been surprised he's been so good.
Now it's time for him to step down so that goodness doesn't end in January, as it's on track to do.
The cleavage between Democratic elites and rank and file Dems on this question flows from the fact that the former read polls like normal people read box scores. And they're scared shitless. As they should be.
A Trump presidency is unthinkable. People will vote against Trump and for any competent Democrat. I think Biden is done. He gave the worst Presidential debate in history. No one else is close.
It’s the undecided and unaffiliated who need to be attracted and I hope the Democratic Party will opt for a good candidate who can handler herself/himself in a debate and on the dash for the Presidency. We will need lawyers lined up in every state because a second coup attempt is coming.
I think Biden is done. He gave the worst Presidential debate in history.
There's a lot of speculation that what ails Biden may be PSP.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/progressive-supranuclear-palsy/symptoms-causes/syc-20355659
Symptoms seem to fit. There's a Congresswoman from Virginia who was diagnosed with this last year. Tragically only 50 years old IIRC. She's decided not to run for reelection.
Come on, man! This is simple Parkinson's disease that 1 in 20 aged 80 have, not a rare brain disease that 1 in 100,000 are diagnosed with each year.
C'mon man yourself. The symptoms fit PSP. Also, there's a lot of speculation to the effect that the malady is frequency misdiagnosed as Parkinson's. IOW "diagnosis" rate and "actual prevalence in the population" may not match. And AFAIK multiple doctors would have to be lying on Joe's behalf if he actually had Parkison's. While nothing is impossible, I find that unlikely.
JFC - he does NOT have PSP!!!!!! He doesn't have Parkinson's. The White House released info after his physical in February and the dates the specialist visited the White House additional times actually align to dates when Biden was away from the White House despite what the NYT reported. UGH.
It's like some sort of pod has taken over all the leftish white guys and they've one into panic mode. It's all white guys panicking, curious isn't it?
drip drip drip
Democratic Sen. Peter Welch: Biden should withdraw for the good of the country
Two days ago I had near given up hope we might get a competitive ticket. I still think more likely than not Jill and Hunter will beat down rebellion (Democrats being the feckless sacks of shit they so ofter are). But I give it odds more like 60-40 than 90-10 at this point, because of yes, the drip, drip. And as Nate Silver points out, Joe absolutely does not have an ironclad legal right to the votes of his pledged delegates. This is a key piece of leverage.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
Nate Silver misstates the rule, which is
Source: page 15 of https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2024-Delegate-Selection-Rules.pdf
My understanding is that this rule was primarily intended to allow delegates pledged to a candidate to vote for someone else if the candidate backs out. However, the language gives delegates the freedom to follow the current wishes of primary voters, even if the candidate doesn’t drop out.
At this point, there is polling indicating that a lot of Democrats think that Biden should withdraw from the race. I haven’t found any polling on whether Democrats think that the Convention should deny Biden the nomination if Biden doesn’t withdraw. I suspect that there many Democrats who would support the former but not the latter.
The answer is that the people already signed up to vote Democratic would vote for a bullet to their own temples than vote for Trump. Anyone left undecided are lying or are secretly Republicans anyway.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens with Biden. The longer it's dragged out and the longer the Democrats fight over it the lower his chances get. The news media have shown they're incompetent, complicit, or perhaps even both. We're facing the extinction of what's left of our democracy on January 20th, and far too many people welcome it or don't care regardless of who runs. We just have to hope that a sizable enough majority in this country aren't too stupid to govern themselves.
the biden campaign should re-watch 'still alice' and 'the sixth sense'
Lots of people really hate democrats. They hate democrats so much that they will vote for trump and republicans. They will enjoy whatever chaos results. There isn’t anything you can do about this. Get used to it.
I voted for Biden in 2020 and I feel that I really got my due. He has done the maximum with very narrow margins in congress. I really don't know what will happen in the next couple of months. He is still a good man, but he definitely has lost something. Whatever happens, I will vote Democrats. There isn't any choice. Look at the French. They did block the extreme right. Sometimes you've got to do what you've got to do.
He is still a good man, but he definitely has lost something.
Has he? He seems to be weathering this concentrated, absurd and incredibly offensive assault really well. What more could you need?
He seems to be weathering this concentrated, absurd and incredibly offensive assault really well.
There is nothing "absurd" about calling for a man who exhibits clear symptoms of an illness like progressive supranuclear palsy—and who appears to be in danger of losing 7-8 battleground states to his opponent—to bow out of an election he's on track to lose.
The effort may not work. Probably won't work. But it's not absurd.
Keep grasping at those straws, get enough and you might sink that ship.
Drip drip drip.
You can't find anyone who polls better, so you want to rationalize somebody who will go down faster so you don't have to think about it?
The marketing campaign is so effective that the rubes even feel comfortable repeating the disinformation strategy they have fallen victim to.
Imagine the poor victim talking about the ponzi scheme structure of his investments while also cheering and promoting it to others.
Thank you CLD - it IS offensive and very offensive to VP Harris too. It's like they are in panic mode because the notion of President Harris has become closer to reality than before.
Er, that was sort of the point of this whole scurrilous exercise, wasn't it?
A lot of Democrats are suddenly really keen to be doing the Republicans work for them imagining they could somehow contrive a better outcome by destroying their best asset.
Once destroyed, what have you got? You'll be starting from less than zero, in the middle of July with only a pretense of good intentions and an insane vendetta satisfied to show for it.
That will be a great look.
A lot of Democrats are suddenly really keen to be doing the Republicans work for them imagining they could somehow contrive a better outcome by destroying their best asset.
Oh FFS wake up. You really think Trump and the Republicans want Joe to bow out in favor of a different nominee? They're terrified he may do so. They're elated to be running against Joe Biden. As well they should be. They are winning.
The folks doing "the Republicans work for them" are Biden loyalists like you who apparently don't know how to read polls.
No one else is going to be polling any better than this, and your only serious alternative is Kamala Harris --who's already there.
She's baked into the ticket. If anything happens, there she is. There is no one who doesn't know that. That's what a running mate is for.
The only people who can sink this are the panic stricken, and that's exactly the state the Trump people want you to be in, because terror is all they've got.
Losing Biden would be a win for them, it would give their pretense a legitimacy it hardly merits.
The real campaign ads haven't even started yet.
Losing Biden would be a win for them, it would give their pretense a legitimacy it hardly merits.
They. Are. Winning. They're terrified the laughably easy matchup they now enjoy will go away.
That's an attitude wingnuts will always project in any circumstance at all. Why buy it now?
They're 'winning' by a difference of how much outside of any margin of error?
Jasper, nice to hear from another person who is not blind to the obvious truth of the matter. Once Biden's hubris and ego are gone (and I am optimistic it will happen), Democratic chances up and down the ballot will skyrocket.
They will plummet. You will piss off Black Americans everywhere and piss off a significant portion of female voters and progressive voters.
Oh, I see.
But wait. Then why is Trump so angry at George Clooney for calling on Biden to drop out?
Trump rips Clooney over op-ed urging Biden to drop reelection bid
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4765706-donald-trump-george-clooney-joe-biden-withdraw-reelection-bid-2024/
So what if TFG thinks he’ll beat Biden? He lost in 2020 as the incumbent. No political genius, that one.
Concur. Democrats disenfranchising voters.....best way to undermine the argument that Republicans are undermining democracy... Great work folks!
lol, this is so dumb.
Jasper repeats Trumps chosen marketing campaign and still convinces himself it's everyone else doing Trumps work for him.
"ACSHUALLY Trump is terrified that we will do exactly what hes been asking us to do!"
Oh FFS you wake up Jasper. Come on man look at history. United we stand divided we fall. 1952, 1968, 1972 did not end well for the Democrats because they ditched their incumbents twice and then looked like bumbling fools in 1972.
Mark my words if you dump Biden and Harris you doom the US to a fascist state!
"I wonder how many people refuse to see that?" K.Drum
I guess Kevin really doesn't read the comments on his articles.
If you want to see even more political stupidity, check out the Daily Kos site.
Anyway, even Josh Marshall is dispirited, thinking Biden had survived the onslaught, and now rattled by Pelosi's non-endorsement of Biden. He can't be very happy about the Washington Post lead story:
Biden should provide evidence he can beat Trump, Democratic leaders say
"The calls came as top union leaders expressed grave concerns about his candidacy, more members of Congress and other Democrats called on him to step aside, and even members of Biden’s senior campaign staff began to exchange doubt about his prospects."
The “breaking news” on TV this evening is that Biden is losing badly in polls. Whatever. People hate democrats and are going to love President Trump waging war on his enemies. Start preparing for the worst but hope for the best.
The funny part is that democratic reps and senators seem convinced they will lose too. It’s hilarious. It’ll be fine. The republicans will be too busy looting to run the government.
Is Trump incapable of picking a running mate because he can't abide the idea of sharing the spotlight with anyone at all, however trivial they may be?
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-vp-complicated-hang-ups/
The first is that Biden has been, and will continue to be, the best president of any of our lifetimes. Putting it any other way is incorrect. That Drum here continues to insult the millions of us that feel that way is hard to understand. Mr. Biden, at age 81, remains alive and well. Not as perky as the press and Drum would like, but still the best guy for the job. Young Obama got lots of praise and admiration for being a perky, new kind of president. But over the course of the 8 years we gave him, the economy was in a downturn that he didn't understand well enough to turn around. Biden came in under somewhat similar downturn circumstances and, because of his intelligence, boldness (and attention to fundamentals and a better team) turned it around in the first two years.
The ridiculous argument of Drum here, that Biden should resign, is proffered repeatedly without actual evidence of Biden's fitness, or a proposal of how Harris could, in the face of all historic precedent about the failure of substitute incumbents, win. He insults the Democratic president he's defended himself here for years. (No, the facts haven't changed. He was old then. He's still old.) He insults the voters that elected him. Nothing he says on this topic is useful. Much less helpful. Just stop, Kevin Drum. Get a grip.
A large part of the reason Jimmy Carter lost was because of the damage Ted Kennedy did to him.
Some people now are trying to do all that damage in one month that Kennedy spent a primary accomplishing, without even an alternative, or rational plan of how to proceed, available.
A large part of the reason Jimmy Carter lost was because of the damage Ted Kennedy did to him.
Utter nonsense. The misery index in 1980 was running at 21%, and the mullahs where holding 52 Americans hostage.
Jimmy Carter was a great president, objectively speaking (90% of the bad shit that happened on his watch wasn't his fault). But the reality is the GOP could have run the Framingham Dogcatcher against Carter that year and won the election. I strongly doubt Kennedy's challenge cost Carter more than a point or two.
And what's the margin you're worried about now?
Kennedy was massively de-motivating, it made a lot of marginal voters look at Reagan twice and when they did, the low information personality saw --no issues at all, so they felt motivated.
Now you're allowing these same kind of de-motivating issues here.
(Carter may have lost anyway, of course, but it wouldn't have been nearly that bad).
Utter nonsense on your part. Professor Allan J. Litchman at American University pinpoints the importance of a party uniting behind their incumbent as huge factor in whether or not they are reelected. Whenever the incumbent is challenged for the nomination in a major way they lose.
Kennedy didn't cost Carter the 1980 election but his candidacy certainly didn't help with Carter's re-election.
Remember that Kennedy kept competing against Carter even though he was 700 delegates behind and had no chance of winning the nomination. He called for an "open convention", which didn't take place until mid-August, a couple of weeks before Labor Day. He stayed in largely because Carter's poll numbers cratered by late summer. So that's money, time and resources not being spent on trying to defeat Ronald Reagan but instead being used up fighting an insurgency in your own party. Again, not decisive but certainly not helpful. It also didn't help that Kennedy's candidacy and the speech he made at the convention basically motivated the delegates to repudiate the economic planks the Carter team drew up in the party platform. Also not a good look.
The amazing thing is the race was even close between Carter and Reagan until the final week.
I think what's remarkable about the polling is that while Biden has lost ground it's not been so damaging that he can make up for it IF (and this is a big IF) he avoids looking the way he did during the debate for the rest of the campaign. If Trump was a normal candidate, he would be ahead by 10-15 points and Biden probably would drop out because the party opposition to him would be total and unanimous. It's not, and that's why he's staying on.
Democrats are very fearful that Trump may win because his voters are so insanely loyal to him. We can't imagine a Democratic Party candidate with Trump's credentials. We would never vote for someone with even a part of those issues.
So, Democrats responded strongly to that concern after the debate, and the media played it up to a “T”. They're good at Yellow Journalism, as we have seen in discussion since that response and the wave of fear it produced. Democrats have begun to ask, "Why haven't the media called for Donald Trump to step aside, and prepare for jail”?
But, The Democrats today are as divided as they were during the 2019 primaries. We had half a dozen candidates who were all liked. If not for Joe, the Democrats would have been lost. I don't know what he told the other candidates, but South Carolina sealed the deal. Now, as they were thinking of him stepping aside, what was to come next. Mayhem.
The only sound decision (at this point in time) was to stay the course, rally 'round the Man, and buck it up. We've got work to do.
The polls are reflecting all that and they will continue to reflect the unifying force for Democrats that Donald Trump and his fascist racist supporters are. The only question in my mind is how fast Biden overtakes Trump and what kinds of surprises lay ahead to push Trump support down or what "October Surprise" will land in our hands as the election nears.