According to YouGov, here's the latest breakdown of how partisans plan to vote:
Since the CNN debate, Trump has gained four points among Republicans while Biden has lost two points among Democrats.
This is a fairly remarkable performance from Democrats. There are two possibilities here. The first is that most of them are like me: Biden could be stuffed and mounted on a wall and I'd still vote for him if the only other choice was Trump. The second is that lots of Democrats are convinced that the debate, as Biden puts it, was just a "bad night." I hope that's not the case, since it would show a remarkable divorce from reality. That debate wasn't just a bad night. It was a complete catastrophe that showed a man who was lost and often incoherent. I wonder how many people refuse to see that?
losing two points when he was tied in swing states is deadly
Many polls show him slipping behind in multiple swing states.
losing two points when he was tied in swing states is deadly
Fortunately, Joe has a weak hand in terms of his nomination hold:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
(Freebie from Nate)
2 points in this election is huge. And if it's 2 among Ds, how much is it for independents? (You see how it's more than +2 Trump among Rs.) Not good for President Biden.
The reasons I'm voting for him and against his opponent are completely unaffected by whether he's as quick-witted or as eloquent he used to be.
So long as he gets re-elected, the worst case scenario is Kamala Harris serves part of his term, and I'm fine with that. If he doesn't get re-elected, the worst-case scenario is vastly worse. So, if he's running, I'm voting for him.
I'm surprised there were even two percent of democrats who said otherwise, and I expect he'll get those back in a month's time.
I think you meant to write: "The best case scenario is that Ms. Harris serves part of his term." Finally! A woman president. One more glass ceiling shattered.
I absolutely agree.
I have little doubt it's because Biden could be stuffed and mounted on a wall and dems would vote for him (and against trump). There's quite a few biden cheerleaders posting on this blog who insist there's no problem and anyone who disagrees is a liar or a fool, but in real life not a single person i've talked to about it believe that. and i really don't see how anyone can honestly look at the debate and post debate response and honestly think biden's fine and able to run a strong campaign, let alone the white house for another 4 years.
Whichever of Biden or Trump wins in 2024, the odds are high that he won't still be president in November 2028. VP candidates are more important in this election than in any previous one just because of the ages and consequent short remaining life expectancies of the presidential candidates.
Agreed. Which is another argument for just switching to harris as the candidate. Voters know it's likely she'll end up as president anyway.
Trump's already campaigning via this line of attack: a vote for Biden is really a vote for Harris.
The problem right now is: (1) the Biden campaign can't effectively counter this—most voters agree that Joe is too old, and (2) Harris herself can't mount a defense. She's hardly in a position to say "The country would be in good hands if President Biden had to stand down or died in office." For obvious reasons she cannot go there.
Imagine how this race would be transformed if the ticket were, say, Harris-Beshear. She could provide a daily example to the American people of her competence. And questions about mental acuity would quite righty be put back where they belong: focusing on Donald Trump's own issues. But there's no oxygen for this when your own candidate is showing signs of dementia on national television.
The word "high" is doing a lot of work in your comment. Life expectancy at Trump's age is 8 to 10 years, and at Biden's age is 7 to 9 years. Both men have long lived parents; both have high socio-economic status; both would have excellent health care as president. While it's true that 10% is higher than zero, is it really "high"?
but in real life not a single person i've talked to about it believe that. and i really don't see how anyone can honestly look at the debate
This blog is definitely a bastion of Biden hyperloyalty. But, I agree with you: most of the normie liberal, Trump-hating people I talk to in my daily life think he should drop out. Most online forums (Slate, WaPo comments, SlowBorring) I frequent are similarly in favor of his withdrawing.
The polling evidence unequivocally suggests Joe is on his way to a loss. Many rank and file Democrats have no idea how bad the polling looks because they see "Trump leading by 2 points" headlines, and figure "that seems close." But it's been like that for months, and Biden needs a respectable popular vote win (most likely at least 1.5 points over Trump) given the Electoral College math. It's especially ugly looking at battleground states: North Carolina is the only Trump 2020 state where's the even a whiff of real vulnerability, but fully 7-8 of Biden's 2020 states look like they might flip. At this point in 2020 Biden generally enjoyed anywhere from a 3-10 point poll lead. He's now behind anywhere from 2-7 points depending on your source. Joe probably needs at least a 5/6 point improvement by early November, and so far there's no sign of that. And it's also pretty likely the negative coverage regarding his brain health hasn't fully been picked up by polling.
There's not no problem with Biden - rather there's a ton more problems with ditching Biden. The only successful path is to unite around the incumbent and hope the economy holds. Folks do not want Trump there's a large anti-Trump coalition out there but waffling on the incumbent will leave his supporters feeling pissed off and betrayed.
I just wonder where those two points went. Trump? Really?!!
I have to think they are just disgruntled and are indicating they won’t vote but will return to the fold shortly.
Exactly. Biden's missing 2% didn't go over to Trump.
It appears so, but any Biden-curious Republicans out there seem to have gotten real cold feet. The question is whether any of these "I'm outta here" voters will ever come back and what it will take. The Republicans who bailed will probably not come back and vote for Harris, but she would energize Democrats, particularly women and POC, and pull some of those despairing Biden supporters back in.
I like Harris and voted for her at every opportunity for California office and for President in the 2020 primary. I think she would be a fine President. But I have come to see her as a terrible campaigner on a national level. I don’t see her defeating Trump this November. If we stick with Biden I believe we can win and get her as President in a couple of years. If Biden doesn’t have any serious problems before the election those few Republicans who actually would have voted for him will likely return.
If we stick with Biden, I think the best we can hope for is that Trump has some spectacular meltdown, stroke, whatever, that sends the Republican campaign into a tailspin and Biden wins by default. Otherwise...
I agree Harris has vulnerabilities, but voters are telling pollsters that she's the one Dem at this point who could turn things around.
‘Biden-curious Republican’
I think it’s more likely there’s a Bigfoot.
Truly, 100% true. There's only three types of voters that matter - Biden supporters, casual voters terrified of Trump that must be convinced to vote and folks tempted to waste a vote on a third party vanity candidate.
Women of Color seem to be pretty motivated for the Biden-Harris ticket already: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/us/politics/biden-black-women-voters.html
Agree, those 2% aren’t voting Trump and assuming they have an IQ over tap water, they’ll know in a tight race, staying home is like voting FOR Trump
So yeah, I’m worried
It's weird how you assume that after electing Putin president, there will continue to be a fold to return to. Trump and his staff are actively working to ensure there will not be another free and fair election. They made a huge amount of progress four years ago. To think they won't make further progress, and not much more progress is needed, is "a remarkable divorce from reality".
I was referring to the 2% democrat loss by Biden in the poll. I think they will end up voting for Biden even though they were disheartened by the debate. I agree that once the election is over and if Trump “wins” there may well be no further free elections in this country.
"There are two possibilities"
No, there's only one possibility, and you mention it:
"Biden could be stuffed and mounted on a wall and I'd still vote for him if the only other choice was Trump."
There's no need to address anything else. That's the whole story. Whether he had a "bad night" makes not the slightest difference in what needs to be done.
On loosely unrelated topic, in discussions of kamala as a replacement candidate i keep hearing passing references to "goofy" or "silly" videos of her that might be used by the trump campaign but i have no idea what videos they're talking about. anyone else have an idea?
Or Biden could drop to VP and Harris bump up to POTUS. Same ticket, shuffled duties.
The right has continually painted her as unserious and made fun of her boisterous laugh or times she has replied somewhat flippantly to an annoying reporter.
You know who also is in a lot of videos looking like a complete fucking idiot? One Donald J. Trump. I'd put a clipshow of Harris bloopers up any day against just a stream of Trumps otherworldly, firehose-of-bullshit rants from one of his rallies and see what normie voters think.
oh man, is that it? i assumed it was something more specific and worse than the general anti-harris sniping. she didn't do great in her primary campaign, but otherwise i've been impressed by her and think she'd be a strong candidate.
She has also willfully and persistently continued to be female and a person of color, and failed to single-handedly cut off the flow of asylum seekers at the southern border. smh.
This. A woman! Who laughs! God forbid.
Those of us who are old or are around elderly people know the look Biden had at times during the debate. Slack jaw, the 100 mile stare, obvious confusion, lack of logical responses and silly combative response. For Christ sake, bragging about ones gold handicap index. These are clear signs of early dementia. And it does not get better. He needs to go for the good of the country. Kamala Harris could bring some enthusiasm to the final months of the campaign.
As a practicing lawyer, I often see those symptoms in witnesses who are not even slightly demented.
Again, I don't think he literally has dementia or Alzheimers, but he does have age-related difficulties speaking clearly and thinking on his feet at times, particularly when it comes to speedily recalling facts and figures. There's nothing necessarily wrong about that unless you're trying to run for president in a country where people expect the president to not have difficulties speaking or thinking on their feet quickly and were already concerned about his age and fitness. Trump gets away with it at his age because he is blissfully unburdened by having to be truthful or correct in anything he says.
No offense Kevin but what the fuck else are people who fear/hate Trump and everything the Republican Party plans to do supposed to do/say to a pollster? None of us have any power to force Biden to step down and/or force the elected Democratic to do anything they don’t want to do. It’s like asking British people “what do you think about the monarchy?” - none of them have any ability to dump that either even if they find all the current people in line for it to be deficient in some way. Or asking Hong Kong residents who want to go home to their families at the end of the day what they think of Xi. Doesn’t matter because he ain’t going anywhere.
So the choice for most left of center people is (1) just stay the course and hope for the best or (2) bitch and moan about everything incessantly and threaten to sit out November. (2) doesn’t seem any more likely to produce happy outcomes than (1) for the people answering the question, so people are by and large going with (1).
I'm kind of hoping that Biden can still pull this off and then hand off, his advisors seem to be keeping everything running just fine. I'd guess that 99% of people who will vote for him are really more interested in avoiding TFG 2.0.
He is asking us to take the RBG leap. We have to trust that nothing at all happens between now and November because there aren't any second chances or backing out after the nomination. One Mitch freeze and Trump wins. That is a lot to ask.
RGB blew it big time, though a great justice in my opinion. She should've retired while Obama still had a year or two to go but, like Biden and Feinstein and Byrd, she just didn't know when to quit.
Yeah, if only she'd stepped down, Obama would've been able to name her successor...just like he got to name Scalia's.
The difference with RBG is, there is no such thing as a vice Supreme Court Justice.
Evaluating the short-term impact of the first presidential debate on voter preferences: No Change
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s32r38vj3sct3kkrijoyw/CHIP50-REPORT-105-DEBATE-2024.pdf?rlkey=nq301dg3j6bdqt42o67eo74nb&e=3&dl=0
I agree with Kevin here. I'm seeing so many Democrats in complete denial that the debate was all that bad, or claiming that it was all a tempest in a teapot cooked up by the media, and that all we need to do is just stay the course, frame the election as a vote to keep Trump out of the WH as opposed to *for* Biden and everything will somehow work out. That amounts to a "clap harder" approach that ignores everything voters are telling pollsters and isn't going to work. I think Harris would have a credible chance of winning if she were to replace Biden, particularly with a running mate that has street cred with white working class voters in swing states (something she does sorely lack, unfortunately).
I'd go with Cooper or Beshear.
Yep reading all your comments you are a misogynist bigot in denial of your white male supremacy. Implict Bias, nobody will ever, ever be good enough that doesn't actually happen to be a white male.
Well he lost the confidence of George Clooney, so I guess that's all folks. I would have to agree with George and KD of course. If Biden was running against a normal Republican (not a bat shit crazy lying sack of shit), it would already be game over.
I would vote for his dog Commander instead of Trump. The thought of having to see his fat orange face on the news every day for the next 4 years is nauseating
Clooney is mad at Biden because of some kind of drama involving Gaza and Clooney's wife (a lawyer). In a manner that may be similar to the top brass at the NYT, the negative estimations of Biden may relate more to personal pride and hubris than to the actual election dynamics.
Yep Clooney is pissed over the Biden Admin's treatment of the UN ICC reports on Gaza that his wife helped prepare.
Calm down. Touch grass. Read the debate transcript if you really need to. Biden was hardly incoherent.
It doesn't matter how the transcript reads -- and I don't think it's all that much better -- it doesn't change that a lot of voters who were on the fence about Biden's fitness to begin with *saw* the debate and decided they just couldn't take it any more. Maybe that's not fair, but it's the reality we're dealing with. In a race this close, keeping independents and even some Republicans on team Biden was going to be essential, particularly in swing states, and I don't think he can do it anymore. I haven't seen anyone come up with a recovery playbook yet that isn't some version of "just pretend it didn't happen."
Yeah
Kevin did
it was not pretty
https://jabberwocking.com/ten-excerpts/
Calm down. Touch grass.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is not an occasion for calm. Not enough persuadable voters in battleground states agree with your breezy assertion that's there's nothing to see here. And unless that changes, Trump will indeed become our next president.
I really don't understand polls and what they mean. For instance 538 shows Biden with about a 50% chance of winning. To me it seems much lower.
The 538 "poll of polls" has Trump up 2.2% nationally. That's if the election were held today. The damage from the debate was real, yet hardly fatal.
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1811117927858348193
538 has the race 50/50 because its model that predicts the winner in November includes more data than just the latest polls.
For instance 538 shows Biden with about a 50% chance of winning. To me it seems much lower.
Nate Silver agrees with you. I hope to God 538 is right and Nate is wrong, although I'll point out that an even coin toss on the return of Trump is pretty fucking terrifying.
For what it's worth, Silver took his models with him when he departed 538, so, the latter has changed up their methodology. They appear to be the most pro "optimism" of the major aggregators. I looked at RCP's* tally the other day. In the fifteen major polls since mid June, Biden was behind in 13 of them. Silver gives Biden a 30% chance, although he also darkly admits his model doesn't have a way to price in "further cognitive episode risk" into the algorithm, so he reckons Joe's odds are more like 1 in 5.
*Yes, I'm aware RCP is a right-skewing site. But as far as I know their poll aggregation is a simple list and average of the national polls. so there's no bias.
It is likely a combination of the two. On the one hand slightly more than half the country thinks that Trump belongs in jail and most of them are likely to be willing to vote for whoever will keep Trump out of office. But given that people intend to vote for Biden they believe what they need to in order to feel OK with that choice.
That sounds like bullshit. Why do people need to rationalize their vote if they are willing to vote for anyone who hasn't branded themselves as a fascist?
I have to say that Kevin Drum going all-in on the Dump Biden train seems a little arrogant.
More than just a little; I am very disappointed, for what that’s worth.
Krugman also jumped on that train. ;-(
I have to say that Kevin Drum going all-in on the Dump Biden train seems a little arrogant.
Sure. It's so "arrogant" when you look at terrifying polling evidence and start urging the nomination of a candidate that reduces the odds our democracy will be snuffed out.
The debate, as Biden puts it, was just a "bad night." I wonder how many people refuse to see that?
The R-D enthusiasm gap is growing.
Biden is discouraging would-be voters who apparently are sold on the narrative this is merely about politics and positions, and that the two are barely any different in the end.
I beg you, if you think this is about preventing the end of liberal democracy, stop talking as though this is about politics and keep talking about the threat to democracy, regardless if you want Biden to leave or remain.
Any D candidate must talk about measures s/he will take in the next administration to shore up democracy.
+10
Trump's entire thing is his fuck you charisma.
Anyone else running has to defend their positions, while he just has to defend fuck you.
They're flying on their bad attitude. It's a motivation for anyone who doesn't want to know anything, but really want to leave a crater wherever they go, maximal damage that leaves no one who can complain about it.
This kind of juvenile motivation can be de-motivated by being forced to confront that they're being duped.
And most others will be motivated to vote against them, if you really act to motivate them.
So many Democrats right now are working hard to de-motivate themselves.
Imagine looking at this and thinking that the issue to talk about is not "Republicans saw a grotesque, monstrous fascist and their approval skyrocketed" but "Democrats saw a decent man with a stellar track record having a bad night, let's speculate on if they're decent people themselves whose support only ticked down a bit but on whether they're out of their minds!"
+1
Conservative voters think an important thing is that people fear them, and they should fear our country.
But the important thing is to be respected and admired. The more respected and admired we are the more the evil hate us, and fear us, because they never can be.
So all they have is fear and hate, and that's what they think everyone should have.
Did the Russia of Ivan the Terrible produce anything that anyone wants to emulate? If you're a conservative it did.
I think the small drop is that most democrats are like you, willing to vote for him as long as he has a literal pulse, but when they speak about it need to justify it to themselves, so talk about it like it was "just a bad night"
That sounds like bullshit. Why do people need to rationalize their vote if they are willing to vote for anyone who hasn't branded themselves as a fascist?
Oh rhally? I think Democrats like us looked at all the evidence, unlike people like you who couldn't be bothered with, you know, basic research. Hate to break it to you, but if there's any legitimate condescending to be done, it won't be by the likes of you.
There is a third possible explanation and it's campaign spending. To prop up Joe, Dems spent heavily in swing states. Whether to hold their fire until after the conventions or to prop up Joe until it's too late for Dems to change, the GOP spent almost nothing.
The figures I saw on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlXPaOVO40M re the most recent 30-days spending: AZ the Dems spent 77 times more than Repubs, Georgia 27 times more, Michigan 205 times more, NV 69 times more, NC 37 times more, Pennsylvania only 2 times more, thus Trump leads there by 7 points in polls, and Wisconsin 127 times more.
Those are hallucinating figures and it's not even enough. After the conventions the Dems will have blown through most of their money just to keep Biden in the race rather than someone else, while Republicans can flood the airwaves. How this can end well I do not see.
Sorry Georgia 2.7 times more.
> showed a man who was lost
That's too strong. Biden consistently knew that he was in a debate with the lying incoherent orange one who has clearly lost his grip on reality. Did Biden think that Trump won the election? Did Biden think that crime is rising? Did Biden think that every immigrant is a rapist?
Kevin and much of the media jumping on board the GOP disinformation campaign is nearly identical to the 2016 campaign where the media and many lifelong Democrats spent months parroting the GOP talking marketing campaign.
In both cases, the GOP directly told everyone months in advance that this would be their disinformation campaign to keep everyone from talking about how unfit Trump is for office. Then after months of priming the pump, an eager media and loads of unsourced soundbytes, the narrative took flight.
Kev is comitted to the narrative. Hes even convinced himself that it is fact no matter how many facts he has to ignore to spin the story.
Just like the poor fools who parroted the anti-Hillary disinformation campaign.
"That debate wasn't just a bad night. It was a complete catastrophe that showed a man who was lost and often incoherent. I wonder how many people refuse to see that?"
It simply does not matter at all. And it is not even close to being one of the top issues of the moment. Kevin and others in his weirdly distracted bubble are wasting time and resources debating non-issues.
Here's the reality of the situation. Biden and Trump will be the nominees. Therefore, vote for Biden.
It just doesn't matter if you approve of this situation or not. It does not matter - at all - how people view or interpret that first debate.
All that matters is that Biden and Trump will be the nominees, and we must therefore vote for Biden.
Kevin Drum, Matt Yglesias, and the NYT editors need to grow the F*#k up. Reality is what it is despite their tantrums.
Kevin and others in his weirdly distracted bubble are wasting time and resources debating non-issues
The terrifying trajectory of this race at present—overwhelming polling evidence pointing to an increasingly heavy advantage for Donald Trump—is the furthest thing in the world from a non-issue. At least given the fact that there's still time to make a change.
@Jasper_in_Boston:
"At least given the fact that there's still time to make a change."
That's an absurdist fantasy with no factual support behind it; hence, I repeat my assertion:
"Biden and Trump will be the nominees. Therefore, vote for Biden."
That's the only reality that matters. So deal with it. Get a grip and grow up!
Hey, Trump voters!
You could buy this on Craigslist!
https://i.redd.it/yvs11080yjbd1.png
It's pretty simple the people propping up Biden are competent and well meaning. The people propping up Trump are some combination of incompetent and evil. The labels on the axis are vast oversimpifications.