JOLTS¹ data for December was released today. Here it is for the full year 2022:
Hires have been declining, but recovered a bit in December, rising 2.2% compared to November. Ditto for job openings (up 5.5% in December). That's the good news.
Then there's the bad news. Layoffs have been on an upward trend all year and increased 3.5% in December. Quits have been declining all year and declined another 0.4% in December. This suggests that workers are staying in their jobs because they're nervous about the economy.
So it's a bit of a mixed report, which is typical of an economy that's doing well but not going gangbusters. Which is exactly what we have right now.
¹Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
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I don't think we're going to see a recession, defined as a significant period of negative economic growth, in 2023. It strongly appears that the Fed has managed to engineer the "soft landing" that they always aim for but seldom achieve (assuming they don't go berserk and crank interest rates up even more). The economic indicators mostly point to an economy that will continue to do "well but not going gangbusters"; inflation is down but unemployment remains low and growth remains positive. Some employers are laying people off but other employers are expanding their payrolls.
The most reasonable forecast seems to be that growth in 2023 is likely to be small but positive.
Things are relative.
This JOLTS report shows that a tight economy unexpectedly tightened slightly more. As a result, this will reassure the Fed that raising the central rate another 25 basis points is required.
Both the Beveridge Curve and the Phillips Curve are vertical, the last 13 months. What more do you want?
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If only people would take Eve’s advice. It would be their ticket out of here..