Today brings good news and bad news. The good news is that Morning Consult polling shows Kamala Harris behind in only one battleground state. The bad news is that she's lost ground from two weeks ago:
This is one tight race, folks. Even Florida is within two points (49-47 in favor of Trump).
I think that reacting to individual polls is not such a useful thing to do. Better to look at the polling aggregators. They will have a lot less noise.
Fivethirtyeight does not show any particular tightening in the swing states. But it does show that Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are essentially tied.
Is there a reason you are not using aggregators, Kevin?
Clickbait. Even Kevin throws it out there a few times a week.
i assume the reason is 1) if you already know about poll averages and understanding the basics of polling/statistics, looking at individual polls in that context is fine and levin assumes the nerds on this blog all do, and 2) this poll and his conclusion aren't way out of line with the poll aggregates, it's a very close race within a a couple points across several swing states.
She’s definitely slipping. The Real Clear Politics no tossups map has Trump winning 281-257, with Pennsylvania and Georgia both flipping back to Trump.
All she needs is Pennsylvania. But she really does need Pennsylvania.
RCP has traditionally skewed Republican compared to other polls aggregators. (Past performance is not indicative of future results.)
Regardless of how it skews, they had Harris ahead in Pennsylvania and Georgia last week but falling behind this week.
I think that reacting to individual polls is not such a useful thing to do. Better to look at the polling aggregators. They will have a lot less noise.
The aggregators likewise show a tighter race than ten days ago. She basically got no convention bounce, and Kennedy's withdrawal seems to have been modesty harmful.
while yes, there is no reason to doubt that tightening is happening as all polling and stats professionals expected as a normal and usual course of evolution in such contexts.
While the euphoria of the summer was good, anti-Trump alliance has to buckle down and focus on the last mile and winning over every little margin possible in those specific key swing states.
No doubt it is a very close race at the moment. However, if you look at the aggregate polling from 538 in the 7 swing states, Harris is up by 2 or more in Michigan and Wisconsin and the other 5 are all within a point either way. She has more money, more ground forces and more good will than that other guy. My own view is that as more of the "unsure/undecided" actually start to pay attention the lunacy of a lot of what Trump is saying will finally begin to have an affect. In that context endorsements from people like the Cheney's and people from his administration who say they want to have nothing to do with him will begin to have an affect.
I know I’m preaching to the choir here but I don’t understand how it is even close. Trump is so vile and Kamala and Tim are such normal people. Are there so many broken, damaged people in our society?
Yes. There are far more broken/damaged/selfish/ignorant/deplorable(?) people walking amongst us than any of us realize. The internet has allowed them all to find each other and take over a political party.
People like union members, who you would think wouldn't vote for Trump because he is definitely not pro worker, never mind pro union, support him. It's a cult. Tribalism on steroids. He appeals to their worst impulses, desires and biases.
I'm union, but there are far more reasons not to vote for Trump other than his abysmal record and actions in regards to unions.
Yes.
Considering that it is the most technologically advanced country with the longest democratic tradition, that gives you pretty depressing view of human nature.
It's a fundamental error to see this in that lens. There are lots of people who simply are not politically inclined and vote either labels or on a fairly superficial basis. They are not watching or understanding with the same eyes or understanding as the politically engaged.
Expecting everyone to be like oneself is a path to losing.
Fine. So we got a bunch of people voting without having actually thought about what they are doing. How does that make those people not broken and damaged?
The polls were really off in 2022 just like they were for the recent French election, I assume because they don’t know how to poll younger voters. That makes me skeptical of all polls.
But I think in the context of this comment thread, what's really scary is the percentage of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Trump (6%) vs the percentage of 2020 Trump voters who will vote for Harris (2%). (nyt/siena national poll).
most people can barely remember what they had for breakfast. you really expect people's to remember for whom they voted almost four years ago.
+1
If Harris wins the swing states where this poll currently has her leading -- WI, PA, and MI -- and wins at least one of the "swing districts" in ME or NE, then she wins the whole thing 270 to 268. Not that it's much comfort, but I'd rather be in that position than the other way around.
Trump has dominated the headlines over the past few days.
Yes, his dreck is scary nonsense--yet still "normalized" by the press. What rebukes there are are buried in the text.
Out campaigning vs rant...and the rant wins.
She needs to win big tommorow. She'd be wise to change tactics depending on how Trump behaves. It won't be too hard to trigger him into ranting and or raving.
I'm going to avoid the Christmas rush and start hating Biden now.
A politician needs TIME. Time to polish their campaigning style. Time to smother old, embarrassing policies and be associated with newer ones that approach the public's stance. Time to create a powerful coalition. And probably most important of all, time to establish wide name recognition.
You can't spend money to get more time prior to election day. It's a resource limited by the laws of the universe. Biden's multiple failures (decision to run for re-election, hesitancy in pulling out of the race) left Harris with only a few months, during which she has done extremely well, but more time is needed. Biden is responsible for that.
BET ON IT: If Trump wins, Joe will be blamed plenty, he'll be Notorious JRB, just like that other selfish person with massive hubris and vanity.
I disagree.
More time would likely have meant a contest for the nomination. Pressure on Harris (and everyone) to say things to please D factions that would come back to bite them later. Maybe an ugly convention fight, leaving puddles of bitterness costing votes.
The smooth way all that was avoided was a stroke of luck for us.
I agree. And it was NOT Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s fault that Hillary Clinton lost. I supported her fully, but she was a TERRIBLE candidate. Harris is far better (of course, Harris also has the benefit of learning from Hillary and Biden how to run against Trump).
Secy. Clinton ran neck-and-neck in the 2008 primaries against then-Sen. Obama, who is widely considered one of the best campaigners and orators of recent times.
Yup, bouncing is 100% correct. This was the best of all possible worlds.
We are just a country filled with terrible people.
Agree. Everyone knows exactly who TFG is; in a sane electorate, the issue would be decided. Unfortunately, that’s not the American electorate.
I do, however, suspect that cognitive dissonance is building among the GOP voters who have drunk less of the Kool-Aid. They may be sticking with TFG when polled, but the gnawing second thoughts may come out in the voting booth.
There are also factors that the polls are not capturing. The GOP candidate for governor in North Carolina is a loon* with a history of making statements likely to alienate significant groups of voters. Arizona will have an amendment on the ballot guaranteeing women’s right to choose; not one of these has lost in any state, including several red states; these measures bring out pro-choice voters in droves.
*Apologies to actual loons; I live in Minnesota now.
"the GOP voters who have drunk less of the Kool-Aid"
Just because you don't kiss Trump's ass, doesn't mean you haven't drunk the kool-aid. GOP voters still think that Trump and project 2025 represent neoliberal economics. They still think that trickle-down is the right economic policy. They still think that reducing government power to increase corporate monopoly power is the way to go.
I don’t think it has ever dawned on most Republican voters that ‘small government’ means no counter to the power of big business, given the decline of private-sector labor unions under GOP Congresses and Administrations. I grant your other points; GOP-learners still think their party is better for the economy (against all evidence). They may never vote for a Democrat, but they might stay home, or leave some ballot lines blank.
Harris has run as perfect a campaign as can be run, while Trump keeps getting worse by the day. If the polls are tightening despite this reality it can only mean two things:
1) The US is a doomed nation that will soon turn into a Mad Max like hellhole due to the massive amount of morons, racists, exists. fascists, and every other kind of deplorable that are just one step above from being a horde of mindless zombies.
2) The polling media is so detached from reflecting reality that no one in their right mind should ever pay attention to polls anymore than they do to reading tea leaves or tarot cards.
This is silly.
The real truth is that the actual candidate matters very little these days.
Having a few more weeks or months isn't actually going to make one bit of difference. While the media loves to sell the 12+ month political horserace drama and lots of people make money off of this time drain, there is almost nothing productive that happens in reality.
Harris is not a brand new face, shes run for national office before, she is the freaking VP RIGHT NOW, a few extra months is meaningless.
But we gotta blame someone and some people like yourself will be eager to run with the brand new, flashy anti-Biden meme. Hes now suddenly 'selfish' and 'vane'. Lol. So dumb.
Biden was selfish and vain. He couldn't have expected Harris to have such a flying start, regardless whether she wins or not. For all he knew, for every day he hung in there, the chances of defeating Trump went down, whoever the Dem candidate would be. He's still hubristic. He brought Harris and his party into an impossible situation re Gaza and still won't use his leverage to force a ceasefire. Personal loyalties are all very well but he's using government.
Wow, every word of that was wrong.
Of all people I would expect Kevin the King of Obscure Data to recognize statistical noise
Yawn. 100% of the political news for the next 2 months is going to be "HORSE RACE! Trump is AHEAD! Now Harris is AHEAD! Now they're TIED!" The media outlets want clicks and this is how they get them. This is also why the mainline media tend to hush up Trump's incoherence; they want a close race so don't want Trump to tank.
Yes. Polling makes money by being interesting. Polls that show changes and sell the horserace rise to the top. Entertainment is the key.
100%.
It is all about the clicks, baby.
https://jabberwocking.com/harris-is-now-three-points-ahead/
At one time or another, all elections are close. Now, it’s very hard to look at past elections since every election is its own singularity. However, I’m getting 1980 elections vibes, where Carter ran a tough and close race until the end, then he lost by a large margin with an assist from John Anderson. If I had to predict a result, I would say all swing states go for Kamala with some spillover on the Senate races. The actual math of the swing states is that Trump has to win more of them to be able to prevail, and that’s just not going to happen.
I recall that Stuart Stevens also said he thinks it might be similar to 1980, with things going south for Trump around Oct. 20.
From your mouth to fates ears. I really hope she does well tommorow. A good performance should put her in a better position. There's more riding on this debate than there should be! It drives me a bit nuts thinking a man like Trump is as popular as he is.
I tend to think you are right. This causes me to be anxious about the House and Senate. If the Dems don't win the House, will she be immediately subject to impeachment hearings? If the Dems don't hold the Senate, will she be unable to appoint any rational SCOTUS justice (or rational district court judges)? Some sort of down ballot landslide would be great, but I'm not holding my breath. If she does win, will Trump at last have to face juries and have to produce his tax returns?
The actual math of the swing states is that Trump has to win more of them to be able to prevail, and that’s just not going to happen.
Not so. If Trump holds down his 2020 states and flips only Pennsylvania and Georgia, he wins (I guess that makes three if you count North Carolina, which he won in 2020). Harris could hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona—and that still wouldn't be enough.
However, I’m getting 1980 elections vibes, where Carter ran a tough and close race until the end, then he lost by a large margin with an assist from John Anderson.
I don't think this race is anything like 1980. That was a blowout election in an era when blowouts were commonplace: 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1996 were all massive wins by contemporary standards. It's been nearly 30 years since the last one.
We've had two very close elections in a row, and certainly no evidence suggests this one's likely to be different. No one has a crystal ball, of course, but at this point the only thing suggesting a "large margin" for Kamala Harris is your vibes. Let's put it this way: all the polling for many months now says Trump's in a more competitive position and Biden (now Harris) is in a less competitive position than in 2020. There might have been one or two outlier polls, but virtually all the aggregates from late spring 2020 on suggested Biden had a 5-6 point+ lead. This cycle has been decidely different: for most of that time Donald Trump has held the lead, and, while thank God that's no longer the case per the aggregators (although individual polls, eg Times-Siena, say otherwise), Harris's lead is less than half of what Biden's was around this point in 2020.
Harris may well win, but absent a sea change, at least the evidence we have up to this point suggests this one's probably a squeaker.
Losing ground or end of the convention bump (which likely started a month early due to the way things played out)?
It sucks that the race is so tight but not really surprising.
There are a couple states she’s not going to win, TX and FL, where polls have her running several points ahead of Biden’s numbers in 2020. If she’s gained ground there how can she not be locking up states he won? I notice Kevin shows a tie currently in NC which Biden lost by a point and a half. I really don’t understand voters.
Correlations among the states are fairly strong, but there are always deviations; some due to random error, some to systematic error (bias in a technical sense, not necessarily an intentional act). This is a case where the national data is useful, to compare to previous races at the same time relative to the date of the election.
The fundamental nature of American society did not change when Biden dropped out. Lots of people hate democrats so much they would rather destroy America than vote for one.
If there really are people flipping between trump and Harris, I say fuck them.
We can’t win against these people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/world/europe/ivan-troll-3d-printed-homemade-guns-fgc9.html
I have been depressed since seeing the pools...this doesn't seem even remotely possible to me. Abortion, health care, reproductive rights, more tax cuts for the rich, a less just or equal society....It is impossible for so many people to be voting for Mr Trump.
But I fear it is so...and Justin's first paragraph is correct...I am so depressed. Sorry. Best Wishes, Traveller
I’m more angry. All out of sympathy and tolerance.
It is impossible for so many people to be voting for Mr Trump.
Trump came within about 40,000 shifted votes of winning a second term in 2020. Why on earth would it be "impossible" for a repeat this cycle? The race has been close the entire year. Even during the August Kamala boom, the aggregates suggested her lead was no more than 3.5 points or so, which made the race eminently winnable for Trump given the margin of error and his heavy Electoral College advantage.
I don't think Trump is by any means a shoo-in. I also don't think Harris is a shoo-in. It looks like a toss up, with the battle essentially boiling down to her likely popular vote win vs. his Electoral College advantage.
How have I not made Trump's enemies list yet?
It's the only party I've ever wanted to be invited to, the E-listers.
My reading is that when elections are still far away, people express hope for change. In the voting booth sweat breaks out and most of them vote for stability. Not so much in 2016, when a protest vote seemed safe because Hillary was said to have it in the bag. Also not when the status quo is unbearable. But usually the boring centrists do well in the end.
So, when Harris's honeymoon was over, the changey vibes moved back to Trump. That's what the polls reflect. But I think a lot of people in the end will cast the vote that seems safest. I hope Harris doesn't follow the advice of those who urge her to propose some radical change tonight. Stick to your generic Dem persona, Kamala. Let Trump do the foaming at the mouth. Become a transformative president after the election, like Biden did.