In the latest YouGov poll, Kamala Harris is two points ahead of Donald Trump, the same as last week. I think she might get another little bump out of Tim Walz and the Democratic convention, but from here on out it's mostly just going to be a three-month grind. The big spikes from newfound Democratic enthusiasm have probably played themselves out.
But I was browsing the poll while I was killing time in the waiting room this morning¹ and found a few other interesting tidbits. One fascinating and promising result is that although Harris is only two points ahead of Trump in voting intent, she's five points ahead when people are asked, "Who would you prefer to have as president?" This suggests that Harris has several points of upside between now and November.
On another subject, Joe Biden's proposals for Supreme Court reform may not be going anywhere, but they're popular. Term limits are supported 67%-23% and a code of ethics is supported 72%-15%. Even Republicans support both of these proposals.
Finally, you'll be unsurprised to learn that inflation is still rated as the most important issue. However, it turns out this is mainly among Republicans. A third of Republicans rate it as the most important issue but only 15% of Democrats. As usual, the two parties are in different universes on the issues they care about. Among Republicans, the most important issues are inflation, immigration, and jobs. Among Democrats, the most important issues aside from inflation are health care, abortion, and climate change.
¹Only one more day of radiation to go!
I'm just amazed this election can be so close given Trump is one of the two main choices. It shows how tribal America has become, or in a more positive way, perhaps just policy-based (as in it doesn't matter who is running).... Random aside #1: Nonetheless, the Democrats are generally fine and happy Biden is not running due to questions about fitness for the office. Fitness for office is clearly an irrelevant consideration for Republicans (except when it is the other side!).... Random aside #2: I fear the amount of gamesmanship this November from both MAGA election officials (including the State of Virginia and Maricopa County) and vaporous election lawsuits.
Add to "Random aside #2:" Violent harassment of voters and election officials up to election, and much more violent harassment of election officials after the elections (when the MAGA don't care anymore about losing voters).
Presumably the law-enforcement authorities are aware of that, but they will have hard time stopping it, and it doesn't help that large number of their officers are actually MAGA themselves.
Re the violence: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/05/arizona-maricopa-county-schools-elections/
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It shows how tribal America has become, or in a more positive way, perhaps just policy-based (as in it doesn't matter who is running)
Huh? Maybe you meant the opposite. Most Trump supporters don't care about policy (neither does he). It's ALL about the cult of personality.
Maricopa County Public Schools have opted out of being polling locations this year.
Because of fears of violence by election-deniers.
I don't see any choices in the YouGov poll that correspond to what many low-income white Republicans would actually judge as the most important issue, that is "anti-wokism" as Republicans would call it, or "maintenance of White Christian Supremacy", to put it less euphemistically. This is basically what Trump and many other Republicans run on, but admitting to racism is still generally taboo and the media and polls generally avoid mentioning it explicitly. Trump and Fox News supply substitute imaginary issues that people can select instead, such as inflation and jobs.
Whether you have the job you want or not (you are not a statistic), the job picture is actually good - a 4.4% unemployment level is far below the average. Real wages continue to fall behind productivity, but this has been the case for fifty years and was so during the Trump administration.
I get what you’re saying but if something is completely made up, is it really an “issue” worthy of inclusion (and thus validation) with other real issues? I mean, some non-zero percent of Republicans earnestly believe Democrats drink the blood of children, does this mean pollsters should offer up “vampires” as a legitimate issue to choose from alongside “inflation” or “healthcare”?
The top three issues for Republicans are all made-up issues. Inflation is back to normal, an immigration solution has already been negotiated between the parties in Congress and embraced by Democrats (while Republicans walked away), and jobs have been plentiful for years.
Some other blog I read had a comment about how inflation is raging. I had to politely point out that, in the real world, inflation is about 2%.
It is not an issue of fact, high inflation, raging violence, bad economy and such are not facts to be documented, they are identifiers for the group.
I read this somewhere, that in a cult you prove your loyalty and membership by doing self destructive stuff. Like submitting to a hazing.
Regarding the SC reforms, wouldn’t we need to amend the constitution to implement term limits? Does Biden (or anyone) think that is realistic? Or am I missing something and changing the constitution would not be required?
It can be done without an amendment by making use of something called "senior status," which is already used in the appeals courts. George Conway recently outlined the details: https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Aug05-8.html
Here's the relevant part of the constitution:
The judges, both of the supreme and inferior courts, shall hold their offices during good behaviour, and shall, at stated times, receive for their services, a compensation, which shall not be diminished during their continuance in office.
I suppose the argument is that if inferior court judges can be put on senior status while still "hold(ing) their offices", then SCOTUS justices can, too, since the constitutional provision applies to both.
There could be another way. Ask the nominee if they would promise to step down after 18 years. The Senate would be free to reject any nominees that refuse. It wouldn't be legally binding (flaw), but would rely on the integrity of the individual justice to honor their promise.
And also promise to step-down in 18 years and then not doing it is definitely not "good behaviour", so should be a good reason for removal.
But it does rely on the congress to take the steps to remove judges, which will not happen until you fix the congress (start with transferable vote).
So polls show SCOTUS reform is popular with Americans. Does anyone really think Mike Johnson cares about what’s popular with Americans? House debate on SCOTUS will be scheduled somewhere between gun reform and eliminating the Electoral College. The earliest being on or about the 12th of never
If you never bring up a problem, you’ll never make any progress on solving that problem either. Yes, reforming SCOTUS probably requires an amendment. No, if nobody ever talks about reforming SCOTUS ever, because they know it’ll never pass in the Congress or state legislatures we currently have, it’s not like the amendment reforming SCOTUS is just going to materialize out of nowhere. You gotta start the ball rolling on it sometime: most amendments in the constitution were introduced as legislation multiple times before they finally picked up enough momentum to pass.
Also, preemptive fuck you on arguing in bad faith, as I already know you are doing.
It can also be used as a starting point to apply leverage against the existing Court. Agree to these reforms, or the Court will be expanded, diluting their power. Worked for FDR, might be worth a shot.
Assuming trump loses, there will be an effort to delay certification and force the election into the US House. Trump wins. It can’t be close.
Only if the GQP holds the House.
They don't need to hold the House. They only need to control a majority of state delegations. Each state gets one vote.
The people who vote for Republicans, pretty much universally, think that harming others is a civic virtue and are offended that there are people who don't agree with them.
A ridiculous and childish comment.
Are you pro-life?
A ridiculous and childish comment
they're also offended by people who apparently agree with them
oklahoma has instructed teachers to incorporate bible references into their lessons
sins that were punishable by death include homicide, striking one's parents, kidnapping, cursing one's parents, witchcraft and divination, bestiality, worshiping other gods, violating the sabbath, child sacrifice, adultery, incest, and male homosexual intercourse
does anyone think the state would allow a teacher to include that list in their lesson then point out that trump has committed adultery?
If not every other one.
Fuck off Atticus.
Fuck off you little troll.
Fuck off you little troll.
But accurate. Fairly early in Trump's term in office, one of his supporters was reported to have complained that "he's hurting the wrong people". That seems to be typical Republican thinking; the president is SUPPOSED to hurt people, but only the people that deserve being hurt.
Maybe not a civic virtue, but a necessary and forgivable evil if it slows or stops the radical left.
so when trump muses on the desirability of his daughter as his sexual partner, is that radical left? radical right? or just garden variety pervy asshole?
"a necessary and forgivable evil if it slows or stops the radical left."
Indeed! Who knows what an administration of "radical left[ies]" like a former prosecutor and a moderate midwest governor might do? Better vote for the twice-impeached delusional former gameshow host who talks about being a dictator and putting millions of people in concentration camps--it's the only way to be safe.
Lucky Trump lives in Florida so he can vote with those 34 felonies.
Oh, wait, maybe he can't. Probably no way to guess ahead of time, so he might be arrested when he tries, might not.
Oh, wait. He hasn't been sentenced yet! So, I'll bet he can't vote in Florida at all.
apparently florida uses the felony voting laws of the state where the crimes were committed and NY law says felons can vote unless they're incarcerated
ianal, just relaying something i read elsewhere
In that case,
lock him up!
edit: You're right,
https://elections.ny.gov/voting-after-incarceration
Being a prosecutor doesn’t mean you’re not a leftie. There's been several DA’s that have been recalled in liberal cities for being too liberal. And Walz does not seem like a moderate. (He does seem like a genuinely nice guy that I’d probably be friends with. But definitely a liberal.)
That said, I’m not voting for Trump. But don’t pretend Harris and Walz are moderates.
Heh. You think _I'm_ godless liberal. So I don't think anyone gives your assessments much credence, mis-calibrated as they are.
Harris up 3 in NPR/PBS News/Marist. Best part is not so much size of lead but the trend.
it's killing the lamestream jackals to have to report that.
The Sept 10 ABC debate presents one more opportunity, beside the two you called out, for a Harris bump. That's regardless of whether Trump shows up, but if he shows up, it'll be a much larger bump.
Two weeks later, early voting starts in some states and ramps up in October. It's not so much a 2-month grind than it is a 2-month sprint to the finish.
In her first week the campaign gained 170K volunteers. In its second week, they gained another 100K. This campaign's got big momentum.
What's Trump doing this week? Sitting in a basement at Mar a Lago, apparently, because he has no scheduled events until Friday. Look at who's the low-energy candidate hiding in the basement.
Tim Walz should show up to debate her if Trump doesn't.
While Harris announced Walz in Philly, Trump was doing a live stream with a guy who got famous for smelling other peoples farts. BTW his fanbase is 8-10 year olds
Do you mean Adin Ross? A quick Google search describes him as an internet celebrity. In a serious world those wouldn't exist. Everytime I see that term my mind thinks otherwise unemployable. What little I could stomach reading justifies the thought.
" Harris is only two points ahead of Trump in voting intent, she's five points ahead when people are asked, "Who would you prefer to have as president?"
Am I misunderstanding, or does this mean there are people who prefer Harris as president but don't intend to vote for her?
I think it actually comes from separate polls.
Yeah, I didn't get that, either.
One is asked of registered voters while the other is asked of all US citizens.
thanks
It means there are people who like Harris more than Trump, but don’t plan to get off the couch to bother to vote.* You’ll find these people everywhere. Voting actually is a pain in the ass in many places, much more so than just having an opinion on the candidates. You see this also with sports events: lots more people prefer one team to the other, but if you ask “do you plan to buy a ticket and go watch?” or even “do you plan to sit at home and watch the whole thing on TV?” the number of positive responses declines. It also happens with career choices: lots of kids will say they want to be a firefighter or doctor or whatever some day, but very few actually follow through with doing it. This is the reason why the phrase “talk is cheap, actions speak louder than words” exists: lots more people have opinions on stuff than actually act on those opinions.
*if only JD Vance could fuck all the couches from coast to coast by Election Day, that might be enough motivation to get the apathetic voters to turn out and vote.
"It also happens with career choices: lots of kids will say they want to be a firefighter or doctor or whatever some day, but very few actually follow through with doing it."
Not to quibble, but this is not an example of the "lots more people have opinions on stuff than actually act on those opinions" phenomenon you're talking about.
Plenty of kids say they want to be this or that thing (an astronaut, a veterinarian, Batman, etc.) when they grow up; but the reason we aren't awash in astronauts, veterinarians, and Batmen is not because kids are lazy but because they become adults and aren't slaves to their 8-year-old selves' hazily-formed ideas about what they want to do career-wise.
All us priviledged middle classers would do well to remember that voting for many people is difficult enough to be a practical impossibility. Lots of people can not get the time off work or lack a practical way to get to a polling station and are too low information to find out about and utilize other voting methods if they are available.
Tim Walz doesn't own a single stock,
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/07/tim-walz-vp-pick-investment-portfolio
Does he have savings? Or stuffed mattresses?
Teacher pension.
He's probably got a bunch of pensions. There's his teacher pension, and his pension from serving in Congress. He might have enough time as Governor to get pension benefits from the state of MN for that. And if he was in the National Guard for over 20 years (which I think he was), he gets a pension from that as well.
I'm a bit surprised he doesn't have any investments in mutual funds. I think it's pretty standard for teachers in MN to have access to a deferred compensation account (like a 403b) alongside their pension, and many people take advantage of that to put away a bit more money tax deferred.
Of course, the reporting requirements for state office may not cover everything. He likely made some money from selling his house in 2019, and that money went somewhere. I also wonder if index funds don't have to be declared the way stocks do.
I hope the trend continues. Harris should get a nice bump after the convention. Given the alternatives, I have no idea how anyone would not pick Harris/Walz.
There's a lot of hate, confusion, and ignorance out there in the American electorate. Always has been, but never quite this loud.
"I prefer Harris but I'm going to vote for Trump!" That's like Seinfeld returning his jaceket to the store for spite.
I have been hesitant to endorse Tim Walz but this may have just changed my mind. He seemed "ordinary" - and genuine
But what really got me was how he interrupted a campaign speech to make sure one of his audience members got care :
https://youtu.be/2HCVKWjl7mo
Very nicely done..........impressive
I like how you revel in the lack of logic in your decision making process.
This is why America is so fucking stupid. Ppl making decisions based on nonsense that doesn’t fucking matter.
Congratulations, you are the problem.
Finding that a person exhibits an affect that is ordinary and genuine, and who exhibits leadership and care for others are illogical considerations?
How is that?
It's the "Hitler loved dogs" problem. People think that interpersonal altruism is a good stand-in for political policy beliefs, but it really is not.
It is quite common for people to be kind to those around them, but absolutely uncaring when it comes to the human consequences of policy. "Southern hospitality" and slavery coincided in the exact same people, after all. I bet I could find Hamas commanders who help old ladies cross the street.
Alternatively, sometimes jerks create really great legislation. LBJ was known for being a bit if an a-hole to the people around him, but was responsible for some of the most beneficial legislation for regular Americans in the history of the US.
Walz is concerned with human welfare both when he interacts with others and when he works on legislation. But many, many people exhibit only one of those.
and some orange-skinned politicians exhibit neither
Hey, to be fair, Trump doesn't actually have orange skin--he just likes orange cosmetics.
I guess it makes him feel pretty or something. Y'know, like a drag queen.
Or a traffic cone.
It's about context. Some people exhibit an empathy that ends at their arms length, while others have a much greater range.
With conservatives their sense of context pretty much ends at their shirt sleeves, which is why they can often develop enormous detail about something close at hand such as their livelihood while at the same time having none at all about something even clearly adjacent.
I see Walz taught geography, which is essentially entirely about context.
I like how you jump to conclusions
I do lean D, but I am a registered non-affiliated voter. I cast my first vote from Vietnam and only missed one presidential election due to an emergency hospitalization.
I haven't totally endorsed Walz but you seem to think I have
YOU seem to revel in your faux sense of superiority.
Congratulations!
Now troll somewhere else
The national polls don't really matter. What matters is Pennsylvania, Georgia, and maybe a couple of other states.
Pennsylvania is currently looking nice. Georgia still has a ways to go. Sure would be nice if those gains hold and we pick up enough gains in Arizona and Nevada.
Start with the 2020 map and she has 33 electoral votes to spare. She can lose a few of the states that Biden won, but she has to have WI, MI and PA. Then she needs only 13 electoral votes from the remaining states (GA, AZ, VA, NV).
Aren't you getting the 2008 Obama vibes? The Detroit rally has 50K people. There's so much pent-up excitement and it's growing. To reiterate, the trite metaphor of a "honeymoon period" doesn't seem to apply. The campaign feels like its momentum keeps accelerating.
It's probably not a coincidence that Harris has added several former Obama campaign staff members. ????
Momentum is a funny thing. It's with you right up until it isn't. You don't want to peak too soon.
I continue to think there are very few persuadable voters. It's all about turnout and that's enthusiasm. People weren't excited about Biden, but Harris has given them reason to be excited again.
I also think there are a lot of people who may have voted for Trump in 2016, but are just sick and tired of his schtick. There's nothing new there - it's a replay of 2020, and it's gotten tired. People may have forgotten how exhausting he is, but he's been reminding them. I don't think people are buying any more than they did then. The hard-core MAGA types will vote for him again and again, but there just aren't enough of them to win.
I hear ya, yet, IDK about you but I'm feeling absolutely giddy about the 2024 election. IMHO, we have nearly all of the ingredients of a wave election driven by women and younger adults, but especially Black women.
There's a month-long wait time to get the new Harris/Walz merch. Demand must be huge.
Not everyone will get the reference, but as trump continues to wig himself out and Vance's asshat quotient continues to grow, I'm huffing enough hopium to think there might be a whiff of AuH2O64 over the horizon. But let's keep it under out hats and plug away.
????