In case you didn't notice, a day after saying he was a firm no on BBB, Joe Manchin said he talked to the president and was open to further negotiations after all. So early next year discussions will continue.
With any luck, we're all a little bit clearer on what each side wants, so perhaps talks will move more smoothly. Biden really wants an expanded CTC, and Manchin might be open to that if there's some kind of phase-in or work requirement. Manchin wants fewer, fully funded programs, and perhaps Biden can work with that.
Manchin also says he wants to focus on repealing the 2017 Republican tax cut, which is kind of odd since he opposes raising corporate taxes back to their pre-2017 level. I dunno. Maybe he's changed his mind.
Anyway, we're back to square one, but things are no longer looking hopeless.
Is that house boat of his parked on salt water? Someone should check the potable water source. His own constituency stands to gain from this bill. You know, the "little people".
Some NYT or New Yorker reporter on a Cletus safari in WV the other day reported that even the poorest voters there think BBB is a bunch of communism and want Manchin to fight it tooth and nail.
It could be they're a wee bit misinformed about both communism and the BBB bill, but this is what Manchin's working with.
You really don't think that Manchin could inform them otherwise if he made the slightest effort? He has no problem dissing the bill to every outlet that offers him a platform. If he was out there giving positive feedback, that's what his voters would hear.
You really don't think that Manchin could inform them otherwise if he made the slightest effort?
Definitely not. If the lives of squalor and despair many of these people lead don't convince them, words from a DC-based Dimmocrat are going to? Please.
(I mean, these imbeciles are a few clicks away from seeing how Finns and Danes live: even West Virginia has pretty wide access to broadband.)
If the folks he represents think BBB is communism, then how do we understand JM's desire to overturn Trump's tax cuts for the rich?
Being a "wee bit misinformed" [disinformed?] and how to surmount that problem is the $1.75 T question.
"I love the poorly educated" said the former guy.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/12/21/business/coal-miners-joe-manchin/index.html
A lot of people are asking why Manchin won't do what's right for West Virginians? I think it's one part "owning the libs" and two parts this:
https://twitter.com/WaltTheStalt/status/1443663584400052228?s=20
It's parked in the Marina near The Wharf on the tidal Potomac. This has been published in the Washington Post - swimmers and kayakers have approached the boat to lobby Manchin a few times in warmer weather.
Any way to evict him? Let Manchin sail his yacht back to West Virginia.
Theory 1) Manchin realized that if he sticks to his "No" and BBB is abandoned, he'll stop being in all the NYT/WaPo headlines.
Theory 2) Manchin's corporate masters aren't done torturing Biden yet.
There is still no reason to believe that Manchin is an honest dealer. He certainly isn't representing the voters in his state who would derive considerable benefit from BBB. I wouldn't have a problem giving in somewhat on the climate change initiatives as coal, West Virginia deep mined coal in particular, is pretty much doomed as a fuel no matter what. In addition, EV's are already so vastly superior to their IC equivalents except in refuel time that the hand writing is on the wall. Grid improvements help all sources of electricity so it's hard to see how Manchin could have a problem there.
Rob, I think you, like many rational people, think voters who would benefit from any given legislation would vote Yes for that legislation.
You need to disabuse yourself of that quaint notion. Read what JTE wrote above:
"even the poorest voters there think BBB is a bunch of communism and want Manchin to fight it tooth and nail. It could be they're a wee bit misinformed about both communism and the BBB bill, but this is what Manchin's working with."
But that's largely because Manchin himself has worked very, very, hard to convey that impression. Of course he has the usual suspects to back him up, but his voters might not think that way if Manchin had been fighting for the bill instead of denigrating it.
The voters who elect Manchin vote Republican straight don the line except for him. They get their news from FauxNews. They get their opinions there too. They hear those things over and over and over...ad infinitim.
Y'know, Kevin's been saying that for the past few years (also over and over and over again.) Faux has polluted the information pool to the extent that individual politicians are unable to "educate" their voters in places where Faux dominates the airwaves.
We here read Kevin, and the WaPo, and the Gray Lady. Joe Manchin's voters would tell you without exception that the above is a list of Communist propagandists who should be barred from corrupting the young who might accidentally read them.
Joe Manchin has made it possible for us to have a Democrat as the Senate Majority Leader. I don't pretend to be able to read Manchin's mind, but I'm pretty sure I have a good read on his voters, so I cut him a LOT of slack.
Lots of abusive husbands pay all the bills on time and take good care of their kids. Doesn’t mean the kids (especially if/as they mature into adults) should want their mom to stay married forever to someone who trashes everything she does and/or constantly ignores her wants/needs.
As the Chinese say, Manchin has "a wolf's heart and a dog's lungs". He is a throughly dishonest person. Yes, he’s made it possible for Chuck Schumer to be the “majority leader” of the senate until 2022 but he’s also made sure that the only part of Biden and the Democrats agenda that will be enacted is the annual highway bill.
While I appreciate the excellence of The NY Times now legendary interviews with “authentic” Americans in the heartland, there’s ample polling to show that most of what’s in BBB is quite popular with West Virginians. The problem is that Manchin lives dishonorably by playing the poor off against each other for the benefit of his rich patrons.
Manchin is no more capable of good faith negotiations than a ravenous wolf is capable of being a pleasant dining companion.
Mitch, I don't know where you live, so I can't comment on (or guess) your familiarity with those folks on a day-to-day basis.
I, on the other hand, live and work in the Shenandoah Valley of western Virginia. A large percentage of the folks I see and deal with every day are exactly as described. They like many things the Democrats stand for, and then they also think the Democrats are pinko communists who don't believe in God, and they vote the straight Republican ticket. They are totally in the sway of Rupert Murdoch and the Faux empire.
You can't apply the kind of logic we talk about here on Kevin's blog.
I live in Los Angeles. Today a reliable blue state. In fact, I live in Henry Waxman’s old district—which, I believe is the most reliably liberal district in the country. But that wasn’t always the case.
When I was a boy, California was a mostly Republican controlled state. The West Side of. Los Angeles was normally represented by a Republican. The John Birch Society and the American Nazi Party were based in Orange County.
But in those days, the Democrats weren’t inside the beltway politicians and consultants. There were aggressive Democrats talking up the good they could do for people, talking about honest government, and extra money for schools. They built grass roots organizations such as the neighborhood Democratic clubs my parents belonged to and encouraged people to get involved with canvassing and yard signs and putting on bumper stickers. And the Democrats ready to take advantage of the Republican’s mistakes.
If the Democrats in California had taken the attitude that we can’t change things, California would still be a mostly red state. Similarly, West Virginia was once a blue state, yet somehow the Republicans are now dominating. The Democratic Party needs to purge its useless consultant class and pass the torch to new, more aggressive, harder charging leaders and return to something like Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy.
Manchin lost 11 percentage points from his re-election in 2012 and his re-election in 2018. He won the latter with a plurality only, and with the help of a Libertarian who drew almost 5% of the vote. It's doubtful he could win again in 2024 unless there is a strong Democratic turnout, which he is in the process of sabotaging.
from //// to his re-election in 2018
They're deliberately misinformed; Manchin doesn't want them to know how they would benefit, how he blocked both tax increases in wealthy individuals & corporations, or that he blocked the child-care benefit because he trusts them to vote for him but considers them meth-addled people not to be trusted with monetary benefits - & he doesn't want to hurt their feelings by reminding them that their state receives the second-highest amount from the federal government to finance 27% of their state budget.
Of course, he gets help from people like the WV columnist who praised Manchin, claiming that it would be the next two generations of their state - not of other states contributing tax funds through the federal government- that would be paying.
There is still no reason to believe that Manchin is an honest dealer.
That's absolutely the case. All that matters is what Manchin thinks is in his own political (or, post retirement financial) self-interest. If a deal can be cobbled together that helps him on that front, lack of honesty becomes superfluous.
I expect the same thing can be said about most politicians.
"Manchin also says he wants to focus on repealing the 2017 Republican tax cut"
I'd love to see this get worked on. Last spring there was a lot of complaints blaming Biden for their tax increases as the Trump tax cuts start to sunset for the middle class, so it's just going to get worse every year till that debt bomb completely blows up at the end of ten years.
Senator Enigma has already ruled out tax increases. With all the recent focus on Manchin, people are overlooking the likelihood that she is also a definite "No" to the BBB.
Yeah. I haven't understood why she is being ignored. Is the theory that if they get Manchin's vote that she wouldn't have the guts to be the lone Democrat "no"?
Manchin has already shown he can't be trusted to keep his word, so I'll believe it when I see it.Also: I'd really like to know if he's sliding into to dementia or if he has a history of alcohol/drug abuse.
Nah, probably just delusions of grandeur; he likes it when Mitt refers to him as "President Manchin."
Mr Drum, you may recall that Adolf Hitler said that all he wanted out of Poland in August of 1939 was the cession of the port of Danzig, which was overwhelmingly of German population. When the confrontation with the Poles led to armed invasion, Britain declared war on Germany; we count this action as the beginning of World War Two. Well, why didn't the Brits just let Hitler have a single city which was populated by Germans? Because by that time no one believed Hitler.
So, Mr Drum, how long before you conclude that Joe Manchin's word is no good?
Ah. Godwin's law fulfilled.
But not validated since the analogy seems quite apt. Since it’s clear that Manchin is not trustworthy and feels he would personally benefit from the collapse of Biden’s presidency and the destruction of his party, it’s clear that we’re seem the downside of appeasement. We Democrats may not be at war with Manchin but he’s clearly at war with us.
One thing Trump and the new American right wing have achieved: they have made Godwin’s law obsolete.
Yes, and Ted Cruz is Goehring, Biden is Neville Chamberlain, Tom Cotton is Himmler and Donald Trump is Churchill.
I agree with ScentOfViolets and robaweiler that Manchin is a proven double dealer and anything he says should not be believed on its face. Don't trust and definitely verify.
The only way to "verify" is to hold a vote and see whether or not in the end you get Manchin's.
Joe Manchin has already proved, over and over and over again, for a year, that he's not dealing honestly. Why not try to turn 2-3 Republican Senators instead? The ones who voted for impeachment might be possibilities.
Stop going to the Manchin well. It's been dry for a long time.
Who, then, should they go to? Collins? Murkowski? Romney? Why not just make a deal with Mitch McConnell?
Manchin's still the best bet. All the noise is just part of a process.
The so-called moderate Republicans in the Senate all tend to be fairly hard-right/libertarian on economic issues. I seriously doubt one of those four or five could be convinced to support a trillion + dollar package (much less one approaching twice that size).
Communism?
Like the Federal Government Black Lung Insurance program for miners?
Or is that different?
Maybe that is Socialism?
Communism, socialism, fascism, atheism, liberalism, it’s all the same to The American right wing.
First this is not really a complete change from what Manchin said yesterday , at least if you interpret yesterday through a political negotiations perspective.
Yesterday Manchin said he is a No on build back better. But of course he meant he was a No on what was now in the bill. Do you think he meant he just opposed the name of the bill and not what was in it?
And saying you are a No on something like right now you see no prospect for future negotiations is totally normal in negotiations. Basically you are signaling that the manner that the other side is currently negotiating and what they are saying is their bottom line leaves zero prospect for you ever agreeing. But does not mean that you will not reopen negotiating if the other side admits that prior non negotiable bottom line really is not their bottom line and willing to go further.
What happened yesterday is just like a car purchase negotiation ( those of you real young may not ever know how that worked ) . Yesterday Biden the auto dealer
"C'mon Charlie Brown. I swears I'll hold the football THIS time!"
-Lucy / Manchin
Go ahead and extend the child tax credit, but offer no credit for a third or later child born 10 months after the legislation is signed. Take the money which would have gone there and put it to family planning.
Everyone knows the third and subsequent children can just eat whatever the first 2 kids leave behind on their plates and wear their hand me downs.
Lucy discovered she needs Charlie to keep wanting to come back and kick the football. Otherwise, she’ll just be out there all alone holding a football and that’s no fun.
Saying just about everything in two sentences. I agree.
Sorry didn't mean to post that
To finish .
Yesterday Biden the auto salesman was saying that management was absolutely not letting him sell the car for less than $30,000. And Manchin just said , if that is the case, then no deal is possible so walked out the door . And the salesman just ran after him saying wait a minute, I think maybe I can be a little more flexible.
And both sides are trying to get the final price closer to their true " bottom line ". In doing so, they are always going to want to pose as if their bottom line is higher or lower than it really is.
But here Manchin really holds almost all the cards. It is as if Manchin is the only customer for that car . But there are other auto dealers with the same car to sell . So, in the end , the auto dealer will have to let the car go at near cost with very small profit. Here Biden and other democrats will be forced to accept something that is just barely better than nothing at all. Basically whatever bill Manchin would want if he were dictator just with the name Build Back Better, even if it ends up looking little like original bill.
If Pelosi had not hung the swing district democrats out to dry by having them vote yes on a bill too extreme for their districts, they would have a bit more leverage as they could easier walk away with no bill. But this leaves them more desperate to get something anything passed . Because Republicans can campaign against the swing district Democrat based on what was in the house bill if nothing passes. But if a more diluted moderate final bill passes , nobody cares about earlier versions.
I was laughing yesterday about all the headlines that Bbb was finished and democratic gloom and republican gloatihg . It was as if nobody had ever seen hardball political negotiations before.
And the intemperate comments yesterday, especially from Biden, were not necessarily a bad sign . That can indicate that you are being pushed so close to your true bottom line that you have not that much to lose .
In car negotiations, if the auto salesman was getting testy by the end , that was a good sign to me and meant I had to decide if I was going to take their last offer as it really was their final one . Always felt that , if I closed a deal on real friendly good terms , I lost the negotiation. If an auto dealer figured out my thinking and pretended to be pissed to con me into paying more , well kudos to them. The negotiation I was most proud of the manager came out and called me a Mf**er as I signed final deal.
A good analogy, and I love your last line.
If I want an ignorant, innumerate, thoroughly dishonest Republican troll's opinion, I'll ask for it. Until then, FOAD, troll.
Tax cuts are never inflationary, don't you all know that?
Anyways, I'd love to see the cuts reversed and watch R's tie themselves in knots explaining how the cuts aren't inflationary and don't increase the deficit.
It won't matter, because Fox, and their voters, will hand wave the facts away, but it'll still be fun, and irritating at the same time, to watch.
Yes, it's weird how conservatives get their knickers all in a knot over inflation but then reject the only policy, raising taxes, that actually has much effect on inflation by taking money out of the economy. Interest rate hikes, on the other hand, are perfectly OK as they fail entirely on debtors which translates to "ordinary working Americans". Except when a Republican is president.
Wow. I'm so not surprised by this, because I predicted it. So one in a row! Maybe I can be a pundit someday!
The only thing I wanted from the Biden presidency is ACA subsidies for the middle class, which would make it truly affordable. I was definitely disappointed that Biden was going to let these sunset in BBB and if Manchin manages to fully fund this permanently, that works for me.
I'd also like to see some funding of research and subsidies of renewables, and research into safe fission plants.
And what bill would I hope would come out of negotiations, maybe even bipartisan true compromise with moderate Republicans?
I will give my thoughts on tax side . Note this is not totally what I think is best - the bill I would write if I was dictator. But what is a good govt compromise when the partisan split in congress is so close but democratic president.
Retain the prior republican personal tax cuts for all. And they honestly really were weighted to make taxes more not less progressive. Rich taxpayers got a smaller proportional tax cut by far . They are of course always going to get a larger absolute tax cut as the rich pay much more taxes from the start .
Keep the salt tax cap. I would prefer eliminating salt deduction entirely .
Keep all or most of the corporate tax rate cuts and the offsetting corporate tax changes that raised revenue. There was some consensus even among more moderate democrats that corporate tax rates were too high to be competitive. If you can find more tax giveaways to corporation special interests, cut those.
Repeal many of the changes to tax code outside of rate changes, like much of the pass through deduction provisions. Many are not aware of these provisions and they did not become as much of a partisan football. But mostly because they were so complicated. If you really analyze them , there were aspects to them that made little logical sense and should have been relentlessly attacked by democrats . But never were . Cannot do so in a 30 second commercial. Need hours to explain the flaws. Or maybe it is that the complexity leaves ways for wealthy to exploit loopholes and they contribute to democrats too.
You want to find the objectively worst parts of the tax code that are abusively exploited? Look at sections democrats and Republicans are NOT fighting over and are never talked about.
That tax side compromise does lean toward the Republicans but does pick up a good bit of revenue. More in real terms outside of gimmicks than current bbb largely because of salt .
So democrats then get the most say in what spending priorities they want to spend that extra raised revenue on, as long as nothing too extreme partisan or left wing.
Democrats want to have a chance to maybe win 2022 or greatly limit their losses . Craft a new bbb ( call it same name ) based largely on Manchin but negotiate with more moderate Republicans too ( which also is a check on Manchin ). Ignore sinema . Push, threaten, persuade, etc. The bulk of progressives to accept it as best you can do . But accept losing maybe ten to fifteen most left wing in the house and offset them with some moderate Republicans. And get 5 to 10 senate Republicans to vote yes .
And hope that the most extreme left wing democrats scream bloody murder publicly..that is good.
Result is, or at least public perception, of a somewhat split democratic party but one where the party majority has rejected going with extreme left . And a somewhat split republican party where the majority has rejected moderate compromise. And the middle swing voters vote for the perceived moderation of the democrats.
I'm pretty much at, "Fuck that clueless dirtbag fuckwit."
Seriously.
So fine, continue attempting to nail down a deal with this out of touch douche. But assume it will not happen, and in parallel start pushing everything else you can.
This shithead is wasting everyone's time. If he's not doing it intentionally, he's as senile as Reagan was. Either way, anyone trusting 2022/24 to getting something out of him is as far gone as he is.
Manchin can kiss my ass.
Exactly. To this I'd add only to get this son-of-a-bitch on record on the floor of the Senate.
Let's spend the first nine months of next year negotiating with Manchin. By then it'll be way too late to do anything about voting rights...and we can kiss democracy goodbye.
Everyone seems to be taking it for granted that the House will sign off on whatever deal Manchin makes with Biden. I think that more than a little optimistic. Both moderates and progressives have reason to think the BBB has become an albatross around their necks going into the mid-terms. Some of them might opt to kill the whole thing so they can talk about more positive matters in the campaign.
Oh, an albatross. Maybe those members of Congress should talk to the ex-members who thought it would be a good idea to run away from ACA in 2010.
Very likely Manchin is just trying to create the impression he is still willing to negotiate in order to waste more time. Manchin would prefer that Schumer not hold the vote on BBB so that Manchin does not have to cast a "no" vote.
That would leave no question that he is a Republican asset, and thereby limit his usefulness to the Republican Party. He is of course also opposed to ending the filibuster on voting rights. Him being a Republican asset is the simplest explanation of this behavior. Occam's razor state that the simplest explanation is usually correct.
How likely? My estimate is 90%, and I generously estimate a 10% chance of his operating in good faith.
At this point, I find it more than plausible that Manchin got 10 Republican votes for the BIL bill in exchange for a guarantee that the BBB would never make it past the Senate. And if that's the case, I'm also sure that this two-bit chisler rationalized it by telling himself he was doing the Lord's work. The man drips dimwitted sanctimonius.
That IS quite plausible. Although I never figured that he might justify it to himself by invoking the Lord. I think he is merely a power and money man.
Yes, I find it much more plausible that he took pride in being such a consummate back-room politician. Ditto Sinema, who has turned refusing to reveal her positions publicly into a guiding political principle.