I think it's safe to say that our current frenzy over COVID testing is considerably greater than it was during last winter's surge. Does anyone disagree?
But why? Testing is more important when you don't have a vaccine. It's more important when the severity of infection is worse. It's more important when things have just started to open up again and we really don't know how that's going to work out.
In other words, it's less important now than it was a year ago. So why the unholy frenzy?
At a guess, I'd say it's simply because rapid at-home tests are widely available now but are in slightly short supply. That provides the perfect environment for panic. You should be able to get a test, but you can't. At least, not always. A year ago, we just shrugged because no one really thought it was a widely available thing in the first place.
I'm not sure I have a point to make here, aside from the fact that I think it's time to rein in the testing panic a bit. It's probably also time to rein in the overall COVID panic a bit, but this message is aimed more at the media than at ordinary people. News coverage of COVID is just beyond belief these days. Newspapers, TV, and the internet are blanketed every day with stories about new COVID records; reports of new CDC recommendations; interviews with people who think the new CDC recommendations are stupid; feature stories about how COVID is affecting _______ ; op-eds accusing everyone else of being either too strict or too loose about COVID rules; essays about what we've all learned from COVID; news about how things are going in Israel; other news about why we should ignore how things are going in Israel; feelgood clickbait about people who braved COVID to see an old friend; stories about the latest antics from a red-state governor positioning himself for 2024; and of course all the latest statistics in an EZ-to-read dashboard format.
If you are vaxxed and boosted, your current odds of getting COVID are roughly 1 in 500 over the course of a month. If you're under 65, your odds of a serious infection are about 1 in 5,000. Your odds of dying are 1 in 200,000. Calm down.
The numbers Kevin 's using are flawed.
ANYONE who had the disease or got vaccinated over 3 months ago are at risk
Anyone BOOSTED within the last 3 months has BETTER protection
But at what cost?
From Reuters:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html
{snip}
Along with spike mutations that help the coronavirus break into cells, mutations that change how the virus behaves inside the cells are a big factor in why some variants have been more transmissible, researchers have discovered.
The findings, published in Nature, show that scientists "have to start looking at mutations outside the spike," which has so far been the main focus of vaccines and antibody drugs, said Nevan Krogan of the University of California, San Francisco. Studying the Alpha variant, his team found a mutation at a non-spike site that causes infected cells to ramp up their production of a protein called Orf9B. Orf9b in turn disables a protein called TOM70 that cells use to send signals to the immune system. With higher levels of Orf9B disabling TOM70, the immune system does not respond as well and the virus can better evade detection, the researchers said.
Referring to the increase in Orf9B, Krogan said, "It's rare that mutations 'turn up' a protein. It's a very sneaky thing for this virus to do." The same mutation was identified on Delta, "and sure enough, almost the same mutation is on Omicron," he said, which suggests they may have similar effects on the immune system. The new information could spur development of drugs that target the interaction of Orf9b and TOM70.
{snip}
THe virus especially the Delta and Omicron variants are interacting with the immune system making it weaker.
For what? Well, the PI immunity folks keep harping that the symptoms are mild which they are - but they want us to ASSUME this is the last variant
The news out of France today is NOT GOOD"
https://www.trtworld.com/life/new-heavily-mutated-covid-variant-ihu-discovered-in-france-53293
{snip}
While Omicron is still the dominating variant in most parts of the world, a new Covid-19 variant has been discovered in France.
The B.1.640.2, or IHU variant, was first identified by academics and scientists at France-based IHU Mediterranee Infection on Monday.
Nearly 12 cases of the variant were identified in Marseilles, with the first case linked to a person who recently travelled to western Africa's Cameroon, The Independent reported.
The person returned to France from a three-day trip to Cameroon, and is reported to have been fully vaccinated, it added.
However, as of yet IHU has not been detected in another country and has not been labelled a variant of concern by the World Health Organization.
{snip}
The question will be is this. With THIS many mutations happening so close to the discovery of Omicron how fast will it take for the next one to come out?
Of course this has got to SPREAD to be recognized by WHO as a VOC and we aren't there yet.
YET being the OPERATIVE word.
This is not over.
If we are at risk 90 days after catching Omicron or getting boosted and the new variant is even more highly mutated. How easily will this spread?
And how much damage will it cause to our immune systems?
This variant is so different than the original Wuhan virus it's no wonder the body can't keep up with it. Imagine this one infecting within 2 days in stead of 3 or 4 like Omicron?
Keep on dreaming all you "This is over" folks. We can only hope at this point because the steps we took weren't enough and the result is a virus that attacks anyone who's had it before or anyone vaccinated or booster too long ago.
We're talking round 4 in Israel already.
The lack of a national healthcare system has now shown us to be so far behind in all of this. We are the laughingstock of the world. We can't tell who's had it, we can't believe the figures of who got vaccinated.
And yet people here are screaming about mask mandates and vaccine mandates, and travel restrictions.
Fauci warned us
Vog,
You refer to PI immunity. What is that ?
I do agree that it does look like immunity protection from omicron infection seems to drop sharply after 3 months from the vaccine booster. And have not seen directly but expect that same three month applies for someone who only got 2nd shot recently.
And does seem to also be true for natural immunity from a delta infection. The immunity protection from infection by omicron from a prior delta infection does seem to greatly decline around that same three months. But seems fewer are studying that and the conclusion is more tentative. Plus appears that natural immunity protection from a delta infection is considerably stronger within than three months vs vaccine booster.
Note before omicron with delta, it did seem that immunity from vaccination was better than natural in a 3 to 6 month period after vaccination or infection ( with delta for catching delta) but natural seemed superior before 3 months and after 6 months.
My best guess at explanation is that infection with delta produces better antibodies for delta than the vaccine . Which should not be surprising as the immune system did get to see the whole virus . But the two shot system gets the immune system more concerned so it makes more ( but not as good ) antibodies for a longer period .
I would not be shocked if, with omicron , natural antibodies fade even quicker. Because the virus is less virulent, the immune system will decide not dangerous enough to keep making antibodies .
But still dangerous to try to infer that same 3 month window we see with vaccine and natural immunity from a delta infection to an omicron infection as you do above . That should be a different animal and we do not have evidence on that today..check back three or four months from now when the current omicron infections are three months old . Till then hold off.
For a true first omicron infection, i.e. someone who never was vaccinated or infected before, you should expect much much better natural immunity of course. Because the immune system is designing antibodies for omicron and not prior versions so no issue with recognizing the virus due to mutations ( what you relate re tricks to surpress system still an issue).
With a prior delta infection or vaccination, original antigenic sin will limit, but not entirely, the ability of the immune system to reset its antibody to fight omicron.
Preliminary reports are encouraging. What is best is if original antigenic sin is strong enough so that post omicron antibodies still do a decent job on delta but weak enough that they also can do a decent job on future omicron. We would prefer antibodies that work perfectly on both delta and omicron but likely not possible and something in the middle is perfect. Just enough to keep delta from ever coming back.
Ron Johnson is proud of his level of anti-bodues after testing positive for COVID: “By the way I now tested positive but I also tested for antibodies at a whopping level.” It may not mean what he thinks it does.
I think there's a very simple reason why there's so much panic-y reporting about lack of tests right now. Reporters and their families and friends are suddenly getting breakthrough infectious THEMSELVES. That's very disturbing. When they can't find a test to reassure themselves/their employers, or when they can't show a negative test to get into a show or other event, then sh!t just got REAL.
It's all about the fact that the pandemic, and specifically the shortage of tests, just suddenly started affecting them personally.
bingo...
more places require negative test, e.g. schools staring back up, too...
I think you're onto something there. That said, while the current administration has been a gigantic improvement over the previous people, the Biden administration clearly bet wrongly on tests (they should have prioritized fixing this lingering problem, but failed to do so).
You mean asymptomatic breakthrough nothing. Don't look, don't fiind.
It isn't a panic for most of us. It's a concern. A lot of people buckle their seat belts, floss on a regular basis, take their medications, watch their weight, check their smoke alarm now and then and so on. They're also the kind of people who are more likely to follow the media and more likely to have money to buy things.
The lack of tests is a serious problem. Maybe odds of 1 in 500 over a month are low odds, but that's about 1 in 42 for a year and, if COVID lasts another year or two, the odds are much higher. Easily available rapidly available testing, such as they have in many first world countries, makes a lot of decisions easier. They won't always be right, but easy testing would jack up everyone's odds.
The media is controlled by rich people. They want Republicans back. EOS.
Both under and over done....
Our health care workers are tired,and with omicron, increasingly are getting infected, so we don't have the people to fully man the hospitals.
That is bad.
Dr. Jha was on Maddow and pointed out cases are not leading to as many hospitalizations and deaths as before.
That is good.
We still have ca. 40% of the population who are not vaccinated, and hospitalizations and deaths are mainly the unvaccinated.
That is bad.
People who are hospitalized now and leaving sooner and fewer are needing ICU care. With delta, they were keeling over. With omicron, they go home.
That is good.
Rates of infections means were at 1:10 people being actively infected in spots.
That is bad.
The high rates of injections means this wave will burn through the vulnerable population rather quickly, so should be over in a few weeks--maybe even cresting by the end of this week in places?
That is good? bad? Will it overwhelm hospitals???
Schools are delaying in-person opening, though not all, and either decision can be defended.
When cases plunge, your point will be dead. In Hawai, the plunge is beginning
Golack ,
Think that is a pretty good summary and even mostly agree with the order you put them in.
I am now most concerned with the high rate of infections just meaning so many will be sick with mild symptoms that it will cause societal disruptions such as seeing with airlines.
A few weeks ago , if you saw my posts, I was much more worried that , even if omicron was less deadly, the number of cases would be so high that hospitals would still be overwhelmed. But today that concern is looking more and more unlikely, especially looking at areas like London who were hit before us .
If hospitals are strained, it might be more by diminished capacity due to staff out than a huge surge in patients.
I do think you meant WE ARE 1 in 10 infected some places now today, not WERE in past tense , right ?
If the " vulnerable " are only the unvaccinated uninfected with no immunity, then the numbers we have already seen would mean it is already over .
But I do not think that is what is happening. I just sincerely doubt that there is a really significant number left after delta wave. Maybe a few more in places which avoided the delta wave until late so not ending before omicron hit. But almost all who were unvaccinated and never got infected with delta or original or alpha would be those who were extremely cautious and avoided human contact to the max ..and who were the type to be super cautious and still not Vax? Really only those few who cannot take Vax for medical reasons and have a reason to be very scared. And I expect they will be super isolated now. Possible those poor people will be infected finally only when cases go way down and they come out to live again and they will be part of the end of the wave and might even see a little uptick in ifr then.
I would add that we have a very small percentage of that 40% unvaxxed who have no natural immunity . Almost all were infected before with original or delta. Is that good or bad ? Today good as it is preventing omicron from spreading even faster and preventing serious illness in those who are . But the bad there was in the past when they were infected with the more dangerous delta. The prior bad was more than the current good of course but is in the past ..I have argued with vaccine sceptics who claim that better to not get vaccinated so can get covid and get immunity. So stupid. Like saying I will cut off my toes so they will not get frostbite .
Is the high cases and high peak but quicker end a good or bad thing? Not sure but it is now inevitable. This thread is about not having enough testing. Any problems there were important two weeks ago and not so much now. And masking, restrictions, etc. Do not matter much now. Two weeks or a week ago they might have flattened the wave and lowered the peak although made the wave last longer ( which net is a bit better ) . But now the infections which will establish the peak ( probably within a week most places ) are happening right now . And simply spreading out the cases in the tail of the wave when going down anyway is of little importance.
But I expect we will get the court ruling on whether biden can impose his vaccine mandates by maybe end of the month..at which point it does not matter anymore .
I would add that we have a very small percentage of that 40% unvaxxed who have no natural immunity . Almost all were infected before with original or delta.
Do you have anything to back up this sweeping statement or is it just something you want to believe?
You didn't mention one media practice that really grates on me: sending the camera crews to seek out anti-vaccine protesters (no matter how few there are in any given place) and giving them free prime-time publicity with on-air interviews.
"We will not comply! We will not comply! Freedom! Freedom!"
Precious.
Guess then Kevin resonates positively with DeSantis and his Surgeon General dismissing the idea of asymptomatic testing...
If that position now helps protect Biden from criticism from disregarding the advice of many scientists to ramp up tests a few months ago , many democrats will have no problem totally reversing their position and agreeing with what was republican heresy just a few months ago.
And I saw discussion on republican sites yesterday that Republicans need to reverse their position so they can effectively criticize biden and watch many do so
Is everything about politics today ? No room for deciding what is the correct position based on what you think is the truth and not just what is best for your side ? At least the hypocrisy is more understandable when it is about something political like the filibuster where democrats think it is crucial to democracy when they are the senate minority and an outrage to democracy when they are the majority. And Republicans vice versa . The immediate switch in positions by both sides there is mostly laughable. But when this applies to real policy it is dangerous.
No, Democrats finally are realizing you can't control something this contagious, which the science showed in the summer of 2020. Saying your following science but not really, is embarrassing. Easily a low point for party bosses.
Funny thing how that realization happens only when it is politically expedient.
Well maybe. But that is New York attitude rather than a Chicago one. Consistently lying about "following" science has been a drag. But that's New York.
Wtf are you talking about? As usual nonsensical.
I've been having thoughts similar to Kevin's. It seems the double narrative of "vaccines are incredibly effective at rendering the coronavirus non-lethal" and "there's increasingly strong evidence omicron is less dangerous to those infected than earlier variants" isn't something the media are interested in reporting on.
On the other hand, a bit of panic right now probably isn't a bad thing in terms of boosting vaccination numbers, so, there's that, too.
You've noticed that this is the part of the year when nothing else is happening? You've gotta write about something and that is the only something going on.
> If you are vaxxed and boosted, your current odds of getting COVID are roughly 1 in 500 over the course of a month.
I'm not convinced it works that way; maybe you could provide references so we can better understand your claim. While Omicron is spreading exponentially, the odds of getting COVID will increase over time.
Those "odds" are meaningless. If I'm unvaccinated but isolate, my odds are pretty low. If I am vaccinated but hang out in big crowds all day every day in a hot spot, then my odds of infection go up. It's your behavior (and your age!) which dictates your risk of infection. Given the same set of behaviors, vaccination reduces your risk of serious illness.
The coverage may be out of control, but this is awesome nonetheless. whoo-hoo! Another dead republican freak.
Kelly Ernby, a political newcomer who ran for an Orange County state Assembly seat two years ago as a Republican, died this week of COVID-19. In addition to political activism, she worked for 10 years as an O.C. deputy district attorney.
The problem I have with the press is that they are not looking at the numbers correctly.
POST INFECTION IMMUNITY (PI Immunity) was found to be worse for Omicron. Why? b and t cells work best in the lungs. Outside of the lungs their effectiveness diminishes dramatically. In fact they are worse than vaccine effectiveness
But again, this is not the issue
Omicron looks NOTHING like Alpha or Beta variants Omicron is so highly mutated. Antigenic sin requires that the new virus look SIMILAR to those versions in order for the memory cells (b) to work. Secondarily Omicron is affecting the bronchia area so any previous infection immunity (PI immunity) is virtually useless against it.
But again this system fades in defectiveness over time, as does vaccine immunity. We are adjusting our annual flu vaccines to adjust for the most likely variant to come along. We know flu is seasonal.
So, which season will COVID be? Fall? Funny Delta was a spring summer thing. Will it be winter like Omicron? How many seasons per year? We've had two this year.
And keep this in mind. We were talking about very low break through infections when Delta first started in June July. Now, a scant half year later we're talking about fully vaccinated folks getting the disease in DROVES.
We are a scant 30 days from the beginning of Omicron and yet here we are with ANOTHER very highly mutated virus variant discovered in France. They have national healthcare so their numbers are more reliable than ours.
Thee is NO scientific data to indicate that Omicron is the end - the mere fact that another variant was discovered at the height of Omicron proves this. The fact that Delta and Omicron are spreading ON TOP of one another is being overlooked by many. Now we have another variant, of unknown seriousnesss but another variant none the less. And its so strikingly different from even Delta in its mutations.
We need an Omicron specific booster. Or one that works well against a highly mutated version of this virus.
I have been reading more and more stories from different sources (some posted or linked to on Kevins blog) about Omicron damaging our immune system that I am now beginning to see what they are talking about..
We are a nation of people at risk. Obesity? We lead the world? Diabetes? We lead the world? Arthritis? We lead the world. Just to name a few. You couple that with our lack of testing up front, early on and you can see why each variant has presented different problems for us.
We are doing a terrible job at addressing COVID. A vaccine mandate should have been instituted early on. But we would never do that because freedumb.
Forget about the press, they are hopefully wrong about almost everything relative to COVID.
The US government (and other governments, too, from according to my reading) has largely given up on mitigation efforts outside of vaccinations. Right? Can't say I blame them: large swaths of the country are substantially ungovernable with respect to the effort to bring the pandemic under control.
It's now all about vaccinating more people, getting boosters perfected, and (hopefully) making progress on therapeutic drugs. And maybe we'll get an assist from the RNA of the variants (ie, less lethality). Here's to hoping.
But lockdowns, school shutdowns and masking? In January of 2021 these seem like trying to kill an elephant with a BB gun. The damn virus is endemic.
COVID seems to be affecting airlines enough that they're cancelling a bunch of flights. That seems to indicate COVID is affecting a greater % of the workforce than just 3%.
Kevin forgot the 3% sick from ordinary things plus the 3% who are infected but haven't been tested. Yes, when 10% don't shop up you get a lot of cancellations. And those cancellations means pilots are stranded and can' reach the plane they are supposed to fly on.
"Your odds of dying are 1 in 200,000". And yet one in 400 have already died. Yes about 75% of them were over 65. But since 1 in 4 were under 65 that can only raise that 1 in 400 to worse than 1 in 1600. Being double vaxxed will have raised that to something less than 1 in 16,000. Boosting isn't going to get you to 1 in 200,0000.
All of these numbers are meaningless, no one goes through life thinking 1-in-400 chance of this, 1-in-10,000 chance of that, unless you're gambling or playing the lottery.
Put simply, you have little chance of being hospitalized or dying from COVID if you are vaccinated, carry on.