I think it's safe to say that our current frenzy over COVID testing is considerably greater than it was during last winter's surge. Does anyone disagree?
But why? Testing is more important when you don't have a vaccine. It's more important when the severity of infection is worse. It's more important when things have just started to open up again and we really don't know how that's going to work out.
In other words, it's less important now than it was a year ago. So why the unholy frenzy?
At a guess, I'd say it's simply because rapid at-home tests are widely available now but are in slightly short supply. That provides the perfect environment for panic. You should be able to get a test, but you can't. At least, not always. A year ago, we just shrugged because no one really thought it was a widely available thing in the first place.
I'm not sure I have a point to make here, aside from the fact that I think it's time to rein in the testing panic a bit. It's probably also time to rein in the overall COVID panic a bit, but this message is aimed more at the media than at ordinary people. News coverage of COVID is just beyond belief these days. Newspapers, TV, and the internet are blanketed every day with stories about new COVID records; reports of new CDC recommendations; interviews with people who think the new CDC recommendations are stupid; feature stories about how COVID is affecting _______ ; op-eds accusing everyone else of being either too strict or too loose about COVID rules; essays about what we've all learned from COVID; news about how things are going in Israel; other news about why we should ignore how things are going in Israel; feelgood clickbait about people who braved COVID to see an old friend; stories about the latest antics from a red-state governor positioning himself for 2024; and of course all the latest statistics in an EZ-to-read dashboard format.
If you are vaxxed and boosted, your current odds of getting COVID are roughly 1 in 500 over the course of a month. If you're under 65, your odds of a serious infection are about 1 in 5,000. Your odds of dying are 1 in 200,000. Calm down.
Well said. Only concern I have at this point are hospitals and their front-line staff holding up for next 4-6 weeks in some locales.
I don’t get the panic over the lack of a test.
If it were me I’d assume I had Covid and stay away from people.
And if I got really sick I’d go to the hospital.
I think it's mostly people who have symptoms but want a test so that they can test negative and then go to work (or Cancun).
I can't wait for all of this "calm down and forget about it, your odds of dying are like 1 in a million" stuff the next time there's a major terrorist attack. What were our odds of dying in 9/11 again? Should we really have invaded the planet for decades over like 1 day's worth of Covid deaths?
+1
Lots of people made exactly the same point in the 2000s and they were right then, just Kevin is right now.
Although you're right, lots of people were also making the reasonable claim that terrorists were clearly interesting in killing as many Americans as possible, and would thus not hesitate to use WMD if they could acquire them. Indeed, as far as I can see that's still the case.
One of the biggest blunders of our lives was when the media and the political establishment cast 9/11 as an "Attack on America" requiring a "war on terror" as a response. If we had called it what is was, a criminal act, our response would have been far more sensible and effective.
But of course the right went absolutely ballistic and even the smallest suggestion that this was primarily a law enforcement matter.
Gasp! You mean the MSM has been in the tank for the 0.01% since the beginning C 21? Say it ain't so!
We shouldn't have, and some of us were saying that at the time.
Kevin, I personally know enough vaxxed and boosted people who currently have COVID to know you pulled that 1-in-500 number out of your ass.
Welp, 1 MILLION people were infected over the weekend (and that's probably a huge undercount given test positivity percentages), so nationwide that's 1 in 330 in like 3 days. He may want to revisit his monthly data.
But the chance of a false positive for the rapid test is high:
https://jabberwocking.com/what-does-a-positive-covid-test-really-mean/
Several things about this are not known for omicron. Nevertheless even a half-million new cases in a week or so is actually scary.
That number is mostly excluding rapid tests. Let that sink in for a sec.
And Pauline Kael didn’t know anyone who voted for Nixon, well done, anecdotes!
are you trying to sound foolish?
1) "i personally know" is pretty much the standard opening statement for "the rest of what i'm about to say is meaningless".
2) what kevin actually said was "1 in 500 OVER THE COURSE OF A MONTH".
3) the critical numbers that matter are odds of serious infection or death.
It is certainly possible Kevin's estimate is wrong, but your post is just downright silly.
Hmm ... let's do some back of the envelope math, and actually show the numbers. I doubt I know more than 1000 people personally, but let's just call it 1000. And let's just say for the sake of argument, that ALL of them are vaxxed and boosted.
Right now, I know six people who are vaxxed and boosted, but who have contracted COVID since Christmas. It's been 11 days since Christmas, and there are 30 days in a month, so I divide 6 by 11/30 to get expected number of cases among the 1000 vaxxed and boosted people that we're saying I know.
That comes to 16 expected cases out of 1000, or 8 out of 500. And that's really lowballing it, by assuming that ALL of the 1000 people I know personally are vaxxed and boosted, and that I actually am aware of ALL the cases among those 1000 that have occurred in the past 11 days.
So either I am a completely unrepresentative person, or Kevin just pulled that 1-in-500 number out of his ass. Since Kevin hasn't shown me his math, I'm guessing it's the latter.
I'm not sure when the "smart guy posts graphs about the economy" blog turned in to the "cranky old guy makes up numbers about COVID" blog, but I'm not liking this new turn.
WHOOSH!
So because you know 6 people who tested positive, Kevin's generalized number for everyone must be crap? Not sure where you learned that logic, I know 0 people who have tested positive in the past few months, and I definitely don't keep in contact with 1,000 people.
The US is on pace to have something like 20 million recorded cases of coronavirus infection in January. And that's probably a bad undercount given inadequate testing.
I agree the OP's personal anecdotes don't tell us much, but it really would appear Kevin's "one in 500" number is ludicrously off-base.
Testing right now isn't so important for adults, esp if you're vaxxed/boosted. The main issue is with school-age kids who either aren't yet vaxxed or not boosted. Figuring out how to keep schools open when not all kids are vaccinated is the big public health challenge right now and that requires a lot of tests.
Unless you have a young kid or an aging parent you don't want to accidentally infect. Oh wait, that's almost everyone.
The media panic has been in full swing pretty much since March of 2020. For the first few months it was mostly warranted. Since then I think media coverage has mostly not been helpful. It all seems geared toward making people as scared as possible and also as confused as possible, but this kind of what the news media generally does. "Your washer and dryer may be killing your children. Tune in at 11:00 to find out how."
The inability to get tests IS frustrating. My sister, who lives across the country for me, is sick with something, and hasn't been able to find a rapid test anywhere, plus getting a PCR test means waiting in line for hours, and she doesn't feel up to that. Yes, she is fully vaxxed and boosted, but she spent some time with a friend, also vaxxed and boosted, who is now on supplemental oxygen in the hospital, with a nasty breakthrough case of COVID. She'd like to know if she's going to end up in the same situation, or if it's enough to hunker down with some chicken soup and wait it out. I ended up FEDEXing her a spare testing kit I had on hand, just so she can have some peace of mind. So, yes, I am in a PANIC about the whole testing situation and I would say that it is justified.
I think if the the odds were plainly and loudly and repeatedly stated as clearly as you do in the last paragraph a lot of the panic would subside. Most people have no real idea WHAT the odds are. That and clear, frequent comparisons of vaxxed/unvaxxed are the largest failures of the media. And the CDC for that matter.
That said though, it's about a lot more than *personal* risk. Being vaxxed doesn't do a damn thing to protect you from flight cancellations, school closures, pervasive short staffing as Omcron rolls through the workforce, etc. And as we are clearly only a week or so away from our highest hospitalization totals yet it's pretty clear none of us are escaping the *societal* costs. And if anything there is not enough panic about those.
Basically - way too much emphasis on numerators throughout the pandemic, but very difficult to find trustable denominators.
Nope. Hospitalization has peaked. ICU is only 50% from last year.
There's no need or reason to panic at all.
The inability to get tests IS frustrating. My sister, who lives across the country from me, is sick with something, and hasn't been able to find a rapid test anywhere, plus getting a PCR test means waiting in line for hours, and she doesn't feel up to that. Yes, she is fully vaxxed and boosted, but she spent some time with a friend, also vaxxed and boosted, who is now on supplemental oxygen in the hospital, with a nasty breakthrough case of COVID. She'd like to know if she's going to end up in the same situation, or if it's enough to hunker down with some chicken soup and wait it out. I ended up FEDEXing her a spare testing kit I had on hand, just so she can have some peace of mind. So, yes, I am in a PANIC about the whole testing situation and I would say that it is justified.
I think it's a couple of things: (1) hangover from the holidays - everyone wanted to get tested (even in vaxxed) to assure people that getting together was (mostly) safe, both before and after as people sometimes fib about their vax status (2) omicron - it's reported as widely infectious so it's now much more likely to get it (allegedly?) and having testing available will help you determine if that cough is season flu, a cold or COVID. Also - ER's are shouting that people are clogging up their departments looking for tests so they are pushing people to just stay home and either sit tight or go and get tested. (3) school starting up - people want to know if little Gene should be kept home if they're sniffley.
Any child who is sniffley or showing any cold or flu-related symptoms should not be going to class, no test necessary.
No test specifically for that reason anyhow, no problem in testing if symptomatic.
Media coverage about ______ is out of control. However you FITB, it’s likely to be true. At least with the Covid surge, the media is hyping public fears about something that is not entirely irrational to have worries about. The actual risks are not entirely clear. Media is built to prey on fear and Omicron is a perfect story for media to overplay.
Like tech apps, all media now runs on algorithms designed to amp up hair-on-fire coverage. Why is that?
This is a good part of it:
NYT - down 34%
WaPo - down 44%
CNN - down 38%
Fox - down 34%
MSNBC - down 25%
https://twitter.com/bungarsargon/status/1475506379406417926?s=21
People are tuning out and media is desperate for people to tune in again.
The point is the US does not have a national health care system to manage a response to this epidemic. The market is relied upon to provide health care and tests and has failed to adequately protect Americans the past two years. Ad hoc decision making by the executive is a poor substitute for an institution staffed with experienced and authoritative public health care specialists. The market has supplied plenty of blood sugar tests but failed to supply tests for Covid and the media has portrayed this lack of planning as a fault of President Biden. The failure is reliance on a market. This was originally revealed when the recommendation to mask in Spring 2020 was withheld because the market was not prepared to supply hospital workers with enough PPE. The market and the ad hoc administration of this epidemic were not prepared for another very contagious outbreak. The policies to keep society open as a new variant spreads and to prevent its spread by testing is driving the demand for test kits, which neither the overwhelmed public health policy makers or the market planned for.
The point is the US does not have a national health care system to manage a response to this epidemic
Who needs a "national" healthcare system when you've got the laboratories of crazy?
Perhaps “Testing, testing, testing” finally sank-in. And, it wasn’t very long ago at all in this blog the breadth of FDA-approved tests was said to be too narrow. Which, if testing is indeed not a priority any longer would be a don’t care.
Sank in too late, now we should only be testing symptomatic.
Even more heavily mutated variant found in France,
https://www.trtworld.com/life/new-heavily-mutated-covid-variant-ihu-discovered-in-france-53293
Probably from Cameroon.
That is potentially very sucky news. But there’s this:
WHO Official Downplays Coronavirus Variant Found in France
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/who-official-downplays-coronavirus-variant-found-in-france-ky08hmpe
Oh, well, in that case, never mind.
We'll have to see some pretty dramatic mutations for a new variant to escape memory t-cell immunity, don't worry about each new variant that gets reported, as long as you're vaccinated.
More cases are being reported than ever.
In my county there were 12 people hospitalized with Covid just 10 days ago. Today there are 45.
The new variant has different symptoms, mostly mirroring my day to day allergies. I’d like to test occasionally. Home tests are very hard to find around here and when drug stores get them they sell out immediately.
I’m far more concerned than I was prior to Omicron. I thought we were going to ride out the holidays with just a small uptick in cases.
So, no, I don’t think the coverage is overblown.
It's overblown. When your hospitalization is back down to 12 by the end of January and then 2 by the end of February, what then???
Christmas was 10 days ago when everyone was coming together, to some extent we expected increases across the board, Omicron or no Omicron.
What timing. U of Glasgow paper out in preprint -- https://is.gd/srh5nf -- highlights the best protection from SARS-CoV-2, in order of highest protection to less:
1) Fully vaccinated including booster shot.
2) Previously unvaccinated and was infected.
3) 2-shot.
4) 1-shot.
Presumably, fully vaccinated plus infection = super immunity (above being fully vaccinated with booster shot) as per OHSU paper published prior to Omicron -- https://is.gd/3n95e8
These studies are too inordinately focused on antibodies, because that's easiest thing to measure. The standard for approval of the vaccines was protection against serious disease and death, not infection. People have become obsessed with the vaccine "superpower" and not its primary purpose. It's like vaccine science has been completely forgotten, even by many scientists.
Also, just wanted to point out that Hawaii's Omicron wave may have hit its peak. Test positivity rate has flattened while number of identified cases has dropped. In 14 days, there were over 28K cases identified. As of yesterday, there were 202 COVID patients currently hospitalized, 24 in the ICU and 12 on ventilators. That's very different from the original wave where at least half of ICU patients were on ventilators and majority of hospitalized were in the ICU.
This is a very different virus than Delta and all previous VOCs.
Good news.
Kevin,
Following up on your base-rate post, and in light of the fact(?) that the available COVID tests have substantial(*) false-negative rates, can you give a layperson-resonant assessment of the information content of the tests?
(*) I have read 30% -- 40%, without having the means to gauge the credibility of the sources.
I got the damn Spanish flu......more going around than boricron.
It's more important now than a year ago because a lot of schools were staying with remote learning last year, and this year they're having the kids in every day. (And packing them into the cafeteria for a good hour with no masks.) And the fall semester's experience with open schools has been followed by higher covid prevalence than ever. One thing might not be a consequence of the other, but you can't feel too safe.
At the same time, we are hearing that breakthrough infections are much more common with Omicron, and even if your vaccinated self is at low risk for severe illness, what about the unvaccinated or unboosted people you might be spending time around? If you have any symptoms at all, you feel obliged to do the quick test. I mean, wouldn't you?
A lot of it is Omicron. Those 1 in 500 odds of catching it are going to go up considerably, but the risk of hospitalization and death shouldn't. A LOT of people, vaxxed or otherwise, are going to get this milder variant in the next month, and people are struggling to wrap their heads around that and what it means. The data looks promising but it's pretty new. People who haven't been following it are playing catch-up while the press keeps running stories about record-smashing case numbers.
Our provincial ( Newfoundland & Labrador) chief medical officer stated a few days ago that: “ Everyone is going to get covid. What we are trying to do is make sure that everybody doesn’t get it all at the same time” - we went back to major restrictions. Yet, we have: 1) a double vaccination rate of 87% for those eligible 2) have throughout the pandemic had mask mandates, spacing requirements etc in all public facilities that as far as anyone I know can tell has been followed by near 100% of the population. 3) universal health care. 4) A land area the size of California but a population of under 600,000. Yet, we now have a record number of cases for the entire pandemic. Everyone in the US is going to get covid. Get your booster.
I agree kevin is way off with his estimate that chance of getting infected when boosted is .2% per month . Way way higher than that. I think Kevin might be going from just confirmed cases and initial reports.
But the large majority of those cases in those vaccinated and boosted, or who have natural immunity from a recent infection, are going to be totally asymptomatic or so mild you will not even know you had it . So no reason for panic. Who cares if you had covid and could not even tell. Non event right.
But that is exactly the point re lack of adequate testing. For someone with a slight sniffle which is probably an allergy but just could be covid , or someone who has zero symptoms but had a brief exposure to someone with covid , whether or not they have covid is not very important to THEM . But it can be important to OTHERS who might get more seriously ill as they can still be contagious .
And that is where testing availability can be crucial. That person who thinks maybe they have only a 10% chance of having covid is going to still go to work if they cannot find out through a test. As they should as we cannot now afford them not working. And of those 10% that due have covid , they are then going to spread it to one two three people. When , if they had a test and it was positive, they can stay home for a few days and not cause those other infections.
Yes rapid tests are not as accurate but so what ? Say they are only 90% accurate in picking up an infection and 90% accurate in confirming no infection. Of say 200 people tested of which 20 have covid , 2 will get a false positive and still go out and spread. But 18 will get a true positive so prevented 90% of the extra infections. And 18 get a false positive and stay home unnecessarily for a while . So what ?
There are a number of people who , right now , are out and about in public spreading covid and do not know it, who would not be doing so if they had access to a test when they wanted
FOAD, you innumerate troll.
I'd guess that a ton of people made holiday plans but didn't want to potentially make others sick. This happened to a friend of mine who fortunately was tested (positive) before heading to his family Christmas with 90+ year old mom in attendance. So an awful lot of people got in some terribly long lines and the media picked up on it as they're won't to do. It's not like the media is ignoring overworked medical workers and other serious issues so this stuff doesn't seem like it's exactly crowding out other pandemic news.
Important to remember for future planning, load up on test orders a few months before any major holiday! Otherwise, don't worry about it tests have been plentiful wherever I've been.
Also would add that the protection from getting infected from vaccination and booster seems to decline quite rapidly and be almost gone after 3 months..in fact one study showed an INCREASED chance of catching covid if boosted after 3 months ( but I do not buy that myself and there are flaws in that study conclusion).
And same appears to be true re natural infection although natural immunity might be a little better and long lasting than vaccine plus booster.
And even from the start, booster or natural immunity is limited re preventing infection by omicron , at least outside of a recent omicron infection ( which should provide much stronger immunity) but we cannot see that yet . There have been many cases of infections of omicron a month after booster even . You did not see that with delta.
Note this is not talking about protection from severe illness . Pre omicron natural immunity and vaccine immunity still does decently for that. Seems the non omicron antibodies cannot stop omicron effectively. But they might slow it enough to allow the immune system to produce omicron targeted antibodies and the prior immunity gives it a head start on that. So you get infected, yes, but beat it quickly and easily .
To the person who said immunity against omicron is ranked first vaccine and boosted and then natural from prior infection, think that is flawed. The problem is that rank might be correct based on overall today but only because boosters are mostly all still in that crucial 3 month period where they still do help prevent infection. While large numbers of infections are older . If you compare like to like and match booster only with infections at same time, natural is ahead.
Lots of reports of omicron infection within 3 months of booster ( though less than if not boosted) but still few for those recently infected by delta. Older infections omicron is reinfecting at decent rate.
Plus much of the perceived advantage of vaccination vs. Natural has nothing to do with the immunity itself. It is simply that those who got vaccinated by their nature are more cautious and behave to prevent infection. How much that accounts for who knows.
1 in 500 is proving a tad absurd. Fully vaxxed and boosted 2 of the 6 guys I went a Hockey game got it. Went skiing and 2 of 8 got it. It is very prevalent. Funny thing is everyone else feels fine. However, knkowing I was exposed souls I go out in the Community? Plenty of old and vulnerable people can get exposed. I am sure I’d rather know I did not have it. However, I am able to WFH and just avoid everyone for a week. So I haven’t bothered to get tested. Pretty easy Mon to Friday here to get an appointment.
For me, if I had minor or no symptoms , I would rather know that I did have it vs did not.
Once you have an actual omicron infection, your resulting natural immunity should be a lot better against omicron in the future as it becomes endemic. Plus, even if that were not true , you never know for sure how YOU will respond to covid . Knowing that you got it once with no bad effects gives you a lot of peace of mind for future infections.
And better for me to get it now when my booster is just over 2 months old than after 5 months ( Israel is seeing protection against illness seriously wane too after a while).
Omicron is too contagious. 99% of us , vaccinated or not , will eventually get it. And likely multiple times in our life as I doubt even omicron natural immunity will be super effective after a year .
So only issue is when you will get it and how bad you will react .
If you have no or minor symptoms today, a positive covid test is GOOD NEWS.
Need an edit function. Didn’t Kevin used to have one?
As a retired health care provider, I believe the testing was under done and under represented before home kits became available. I think the public also had this feeling and now they are testing like mating cats.
I also folks are testing way too much because they are actually dealing with risky behaviour. They are still meeting, maskless with friends, etc. They are afraid of their own behaviour so they test too much.
It's a vicious cycle and not good for Covid. We are fools when it comes to isolation and proper dealing with this virus. No one seems to tolerate staying at home. They feel they just have to get out and mingle.
We definitely need a way to reduce the price of the at-home tests, if not have them available for free or a token amount around major holidays.
Might also point out one factor that , with omicron reduces the utility of mass testing. Not that it applies much to usa as we never had much chance of using mass tests this way.
And that is using mass testing to identify any outbreak and rigorously context trace and isolate infected to snuff out any starting covid infections before they can spread. Including super strict restrictions for periods until the case numbers go to zero.
That is very very hard with covid given how infectious it is and how many are asymptomatic.
But some nations like Germany and Canada with more advantageous cultures and social customs , and a good testing policy, were at least able to reasonably control it somewhat. With Germany, it broke down pre omicron with delta once they reached the poorer weather season. Canada seemed to do pretty good until omicron but omicron is really exploding there now .
New Zealand and Australia, with island advantages and harshest restrictions, did control it longer, especially new Zealand.
But Australia has given up now. Their case numbers per capita look to be passing ours soon ( rate not cumulative) ..new Zealand last holdout but breaking down . They cannot get cases back to zero anymore and it will break out big time there too.
Omicron is just a different animal re contagiousness . All policies that, with original and delta, which had as a goal actually sniffing out outbreaks and reducing cases too very low levels ( without a wave and natural immunity) might have been not worth it and extremely difficult and unlikely, but possible. With imicron
Damn this system.
With omicron , the idea of contact tracing, masking , other restrictions, being able to actually prevent infections long term. Fuhgetaboutit. Not happening.
I am vaxxed and boosted. I do not want to test to know if my sniffles or cough is covid or not just for my own edification. I want to know so that if it is covid I can quarantine for a week and will not give it to someone else who may be more medically fragile. It has nothing to do with the odds. It is about being responsible and thinking of others. Btw, my daughter, also vaxxed and boosted, had a sore throat the Monday before Christmas. The positivity rate in our state was 10%, so I told her it was unlikely that she had covid. But she works in health care with medically fragile people. I was able to get a home kit, and we sat there looking at the second pink line like it was a pregnancy test. We couldn't believe it (just like a pregnancy test). We stood in line the next day and got tested. She was positive again, I was negative. She was sick for a good week, fever, chills, night sweats, cough, congestion, and compared it to a bad case of flu. A breakthrough case is still still enough to knock someone off their feet for a while.