Dex day was on Saturday this week in order to keep me awake during my trip to Sheephole, which means that Monday became crash day. But I'm finally awake! Here are a few miscellaneous thoughts while I continue to brush the cobwebs out of my brain:
- Whatever else you can say about Joe Manchin, he's sincere in his beliefs. If he weren't, he'd be happy to bargain over his opposition to ending the filibuster. Right? But as far as I know he hasn't done this. There have been no backroom offers of ending his opposition if, say, West Virginia gets a new federal highway or something. His views may be odd and contradictory, but they're real.
- The press keeps reporting that progress is being made in the negotiations over an infrastructure bill, but that's not true. The real sticking point has never been the details of what's in the bill, but the question of how it's going to be paid for. On that score, Republicans haven't moved an inch.
- Can everyone please slow down a bit with their hot takes on the economy? The pandemic recession was a weird recession, which means that recovery is likely to be a little weird too. And in any case, even if recovery is lightning fast by historical standards, that still means it will take at least several months to unfold. I realize that a lot of the yelping about inflation and deficits is just partisan hoohah, which I hardly expect to go away, but even the fairminded among us need to understand that monthly data dumps don't tell us much. Just take it easy for now. We won't know until fall how things are really going.
- We still need a virologist to comment on the great "double CGG" proof that the CoV-2 virus was created in a lab. Come on, folks! It's not like you have anything else going on right now.
The double CGG 'proof' was debunked a month back by virologist Kristian G. Anderson on twitter. Unfortunately, he deleted his twitter account after the recent Fauci-emails 'scandal', but an archived version of the thread can be accessed at:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210527162603/https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1391507230848032772?s=20
The relevant bit starts from the 17th tweet, which begins "Now the codons..."
Abe
See, the problem with the science is that tweet is that it takes soooo loooong to read, and it's like, a complex argument and stuff. Whereas I can just say "double CGG is proof!" and be done.
Simplicity being the art of ... um ... getting the cognitively different to go along.
Cognitively different is now my new favorite label.
From Anderson's tweet: "Baltimore does not provide any evidence to support his hypothesis and the data support a natural origin."
Well, I can tell you from my days at MIT in the 90s, Baltimore's "evidence" is probably "I'm David Baltimore".
His conclusion from that thread,
Oh, awesome. I am so looking forward to my dumbass Qneighbor, who knows that me and mister elle are biologists (not virologists, alas) engaging us in conversations about double CGG and gain of function while our dogs poop.
I feel your pain, and I know the importance of keeping peace with the neighbors, but I have had success with even my Q-ist relatives by looking them in the eyes, citing fair and well-earned expertise, and saying simply, no, I've worked in X field many years, [perhaps a few other facts to cement that expertise,] and what you say is completely untrue [shrug, slightly embarrassed smile].
The point is not that you'll convince them on the basis of facts -- they aren't interested in reasoning from observation to conclusion but rather from dogma to interpretation -- but it IS social pressure, which matters a lot to them.
Came here to post what Abe posted.
Unfortunately I'm sure Prof. Anderson's appearance in the Fauci emails means no one's mind will be changed by this explanation. Clearly the Deep State got to him \eyeroll
Consider how much damage was caused by those with deliberate intent regarding the "Climategate" emails; it's *exactly* the same gameplan here.
(Meanwhile, the newsmedia who ought to know better contribute to the problem. "Some folk say it's raining outside. Other folk say it's sunny. Today on Newsblob: they talk, you decide.")
Anyone else think Manchin lately looks remarkably like that Senator in Godfather, part II?
from his Wikipedia page,
Well, if he's so sanguine about it maybe saving the nation could assume a higher priority in his mind.
Also, he won't be up for re-election until 2024, plenty of time for this to blow over.
Blow over? His stance is making him increasingly popular in West Virginia, where he is the only Democrat to hold statewide office.
Or maybe he's compromised. His wife and daughter's Epi-pend dealings are interesting. Maybe he's not the moral compass of the Senate. Maybe he's just another schlemiel.
"Saving the nation"...LOL, what drama! What 'nation'?
Whitetown.
Blanchetown.
Manchin is not acting in good faith. He's probably on some kind of a power trip, but totally cares about nothing but his own effing ego.
You already appear to have an in-house virologist commentator in MDB.
I don't particularly think the evidence is noteworthy; after all, if it *can* exist in nature, it *will* exist in nature. The rarity of a combination of amino acids in a particular section of coding isn't really saying much, especially when we barely know what's out there, creating an availability bias.
Additionally, if the cred of one's opinion is strictly determined by their education, then, I say to you that no one is qualified to comment except for just those who have a degree in virology, microbiology, and similar fields.
So, onto you, MDB, as you're the only one qualified to make any comments on the topic of pandemic viruses.
"I don't particularly think the evidence is noteworthy; after all, if it *can* exist in nature, it *will* exist in nature. .."
This is false if by exist in nature you mean on earth at the present time. Some unlikely things exist, that doesn't mean all unlikely things exist.
It's difficult to respond to a petulant snit over something I never said.
The CGGCGG "proof" is one of the strongest arguments *against* the idea that the virus was created in the lab. The two CGG codons in a row produces an amino acid sequence in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that are part of its furin cleavage site (aka the FCS).
But the amino sequence of SARS-CoV-2 FCS happens to be a *suboptimal* design to inject its RNA into a host cell. Virologists have been surprised that it's as effective as it's been. (But there's stuff going on the receptor binding domain that improves its effectiveness.)
Secondly, other CoVs use a CGGCGA codon sequence instead of the CGGCGG to code their spike protein FCSes. This makes it difficult to consider that viral recombination was the mechanism that created the SARS-CoV-2 FCS, because there's no other known example of this CGGCGG sequence in Coronavirus world for the hypothetical evil Chinese virologists to have used when they created SARS-CoV-2 FCS for their nefarious purposes .
Aha! So they did that just to throw us off the track! Ohhh those sneaky Chinese.
There will be no infrastructure bill or anything else democrats want. The congress is incapable of passing any meaningful legislation. They will, probably, pass a budget and for sure increase defense spending, but that’s about it.
Everyone just go back to sleep.
There will be an infrastructure bill, but it will be part of a Reconcilliation bill that includes other stuff too, probably passed in fall or winter.
"There have been no backroom offers of ending his opposition"
I'd be astonished if that were true.
Both from republicans (getting him to increase his opposition) and from Dems (getting him to lessen his opposition), I imagine there must have been quite a lot of backroom offers.
But the issue seems to be, as far as I can tell, that Manchin doesn't seem interested in accepting any of those offers (or, perhaps he is in fact interested - and influenced by - whatever he's hearing from Republicans).
Nevertheless, the lack of reporting on this topic really is a puzzle, and it's one that I've seen quite a few others write about: why aren't we hearing anything about any negotiations involving Manchin? I know he's tried talking to Republicans; but, why don't we hear anything about what Pres Biden, VP Harris, or Senate leader Schumer has been saying to him. Because, they're obviously trying to work something out with him, right?
Is it one of the most leak-proof negotiations in history? Because I cannot fathom how such negotiations could not actually be happening...
By being between Biden, Schumer and Manchin.
The Biden WH is proving as leak-proof as the Obama WH. And this is important to all of them.
The only real question is whether indeed "he's sincere in his beliefs" and "there have been no backroom offers of ending his opposition." The hope is otherwise, that's he's playing a long game to insulate himself as best he can from the MAGAts while ultimately planning to extort a whole smokehouse full of bacon from Biden and Schumer. The fear is that he's out of his depth, he can manage WV when nobody's paying attention, but when he has actual leverage, he doesn't have a clue how to use it beyond getting TV interviews.
I believe was never any hope on filibuster reform or, therefore, major Democratic priority legislation (voting rights, statehood, etc) that isn't reconciliation-eligible.
The main thing that matters over the next couple of cycles is how voters feel about the economy, and for that, what matters is whether Manchin is open to voting to put reconciliation-eligible spending bills over the top.
It's not clear to me whether Biden's remaining spending plans are DOA because of Manchin's intransigence (I don't think so, and I certainly hope not, but I could be wrong) or not.
If Manchin can't be counted on to support his party on big spending packages, then I think Democrats probably should consider primarying him. But I don't think we're there yet (and in any event there'd be no sense in openly opposing him before 2024, given that he he leaves the party it'll become difficult to confirm officials, and McConnell might even be back as majority leader).
Primarying him is pointless, imo.
He's going to lose his seat, probably by five or more, in 2024 and any other D would lose it by 20. He only won in the 2018 blue wave by 3%.
The only thing to do is convince him he's going to lose in 2024 unless Democrats are super popular in 2024. But that's seems impossible so far.
So really it is just bad. The 50 seat majority relies on perfect unity and Democrats don't have that.
Still better than McConnell staying in charge.
In the long run the US Senate dies. The only question is what it takes with it.
Joe Manchin is very sincere in his beliefs that democracy should die if it would interfere with his identity as ElderStatesmen™.
What a guy.
Whatever else you can say about Joe Manchin, he's sincere in his beliefs. If he weren't, he'd be happy to bargain over his opposition to ending the filibuster. Right?</i
I don't see it that way. My strong suspicion (and yes, I tend to be somewhat cynical about politicians) is that Joe Manchin feels he best maximizes his reelection odds if he frequently, loudly and publicly sends the message about how "mavricky" he is (which is another way of saying: "Hey, I ain't no Beltway lib!")
So, it simply could be that feels this messaging strategy -- which necessarily involves his sticking his finger in the eye of the Democratic Party -- is more important than the odd bridge or road for West Virginia. And he's probably right.
I should probably give up trying to use HTML tags with this commenting software.
Wait...this commenting platform allows HTML?
Yep. But it helps to close tags!
It’s hard to say what’s in his mind, partly because reporters don’t ask him to explain obviously incompatible statements. But I think there’s a real possibility that if he costs The Democratic Party the Congress in 2022, WV Democrats are very possibly going to stay home in 2024.
I don’t see why Manchin doesn’t embrace the Democratic agenda. Maybe if he and the party really deliver the goods and people in his state see improvements in the lives and have hope for a better future, he’ll get re-elected. Otherwise I think he’s toast.
I don’t see why Manchin doesn’t embrace the Democratic agenda.
Because he needs large numbers of Republicans and conservative/moderate independents to vote for him. That's why. So, he tries to thread the needle. He supports the "Democratic agenda" some of the time. But he doesn't want to be seen as "embracing" it, lest his next general election opponent find it too easy to brand him as an AOC-style socialist.
I think there's a pretty strong chance he'll lose his reelection bid (if he indeed runs) no matter what he does, as long as he has a "D" next to his name. This is West Virginia, after all! And if Manchin had a crystal ball and knew for sure that would be the outcome, maybe he'd be more reasonable, and more supportive of his fellow Democrats; who knows? But then again maybe he sees his post-Senate career bread being buttered by the likes of Fox News.
(I would like to think Manchin believes it's in his political interest to have a strong economy to run on in 2024, and toward that end will help Democrats get a large spending package or two through the Senate -- after all, he's presumably already burnished his hippy-punching bonafides by killing elections reform and by bucking his party on the filibuster, so, he has political cover; but again, who know? And the signals he's sending about the need for GOP votes don't give one much confidence on this score).
Manchin should embrace the Democratic agenda because he would actually have a much better chance of attracting moderate Republicans and independents. Something that Biden understands far better than Manchin (and for which I give him full credit) is that his proposals seem to be extremely popular over an extremely wide swath of public opinion.
One reason why Manchin can’t pull “moderate” Republican senators is that they fear primary challenges from the MAGA base, which is dominant in primary elections. But if Manchin wants to attract those moderates and independents who turn out for the general election, what would be better than delivering for West Virginians?
The other point for him to consider is that if the Democrats get wiped out because of Manchin and his clique, maybe they won’t support him in 2024. After all if Manchin is why the party ends up wandering in the political wilderness for the next decade (if we’re lucky) and his presence guarantees that a Democratic restoration is doomed because of his intransigence and selfishness, maybe we should dump him in 2024 and try building a Democratic Party in the state from the ground up.
To paraphrase: For what shall it profit a political party, if it shall gain West Virginia, and lose the whole world
maybe we should dump him in 2024 and try building a Democratic Party in the state from the ground up.
If Manchin walks away from Democrats on the major spending packages still in play, I agree Democrats should dump him. But if his votes are the difference-maker that enable such legislation to get to Biden's desk, having Joe Manchin as a Democrat in the Senate is vastly better than the alternative. I should add: one reason I feel this way is that I believe that, ultimately, the only way to solve the Manchin problem is for Democrats to pick up two or three additional Senate seats. As long as the Democratic agenda relies on the votes of a West Virginian, there are going to be problems. Accomplishing this will be no mean feat (to say the least) but a truly robust economy over the next seventeen months -- hardly an impossibility, especially if major, additional spending is approved by Congress -- could help it happen.
Anyway, the optimal situation is for Democrats to emerge with 52-53 senators in January of 2023, reform or dump the filibuster, and then do a voting rights/anti gerrymandering bill (and maybe DC statehood and one or two other things). It's pretty clear, though, this isn't in the cards while Joe Manchin is the 50th vote.
I wouldn’t disagree with you.
But the problem, as you yourself seem to be acknowledging, is that if Manchin continues to block everything, he probably kills the Democrats prospects for 2022. Manchin’s going to block the Democrats at every juncture, which, in turn, will make it impossible for the Democrats to hold on to either house let alone pick up Senate seats.
Relying on Manchin leaves us in the same place as the gingerbread man who couldn’t run until he got hot and couldn’t get hot until he’d ran. I don’t see a good way out but I think we should dump him in 2024 and rebuild in a way that will allow us to achieve things and not just have occasional Democratic interregnums when Republican messes need cleaning up.
...if Manchin continues to block everything, he probably kills the Democrats prospects for 2022. Manchin’s going to block the Democrats at every juncture...
To me, that's THE key question: will Manchin's intransigence and vacuous quest for bipartisanship be extended to encompass blocking Biden's domestic spending agenda, or will he content himself with his derailment of the political reforms Democrats want? If it's the former, all bets are off, and Manchin has substantially become the equivalent of a Republican in that seat. I admit the signs aren't good. But I think it's too early to write him off. I guess we'll know soon enough.
Polities with third world populations can't be first world. It's an iron law.
Your defeatism is boundless.
The fauxgressive idea that sitting out elections out of pique will make things better later on is sickening.
I don’t see why that’s so. If the Democrats keep Manchin and he is responsible for our losing Congress, what’s the advantage of keeping the viper at our breast after 2024? And, realistically, if Manchin and his sidekick can derail all of the Biden agenda except tax cuts and military spending, the odds of the Democrats keeping either house of Congress are minuscule.
Wouldn’t it be better to put a plan in motion to retake Congress (assuming that’s still allowed by Manchin’s Republican friends) and, just as important, to keep it?
Clearly, the problem right now is that the Democrats can’t deliver on their agenda. If we ever get back in because (yet again Republicans overreached), we need to break the cycle by not having Manchin and his clique as an albatross around our necks.
Why assume that Manchin will block an infrastructure bill? He didn't block the stimulus bill. The possibilities for pork he can bring home in the infrastructure bill will be enormous.
Manchin’s stance on the infrastructure bill doesn’t seem to be as intransigeant but it’s incoherent, internally-contradictory, and essentially cedes power over everything to Republicans. Since it's clear that the Republicans won't let Biden pass the kind of an infrastructure bill that might lead to Democrats holding the Congress in 2022, it's clear that Manchin will either be forcing Biden to settle for a bill that won't improve Democrats chances or maybe he'll block everything in Biden's agenda.
Since he had none of these objections to the way in which Republicans ruled when they controlled all three branches of government, the clear implication of Manchin’s position is that Democratic victories are inherently suspect and Democratic governance is inherently illegitimate.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/08/manchins-continued-opposition-filibuster-threatens-bidens-agenda/7586656002/
LOL. This 'recession' was BS, a ridiculous response to an engineered virus that didn't kill much of anyone who wasn't in the grim reaper's sites already.
Truly one of the great hoaxes perpetrated on any populace.
I had Covid back in December. It was not a hoax-- it was real. Are you going to call me a liar?
Or are you saying the recession was a hoax and the economy was really just booming and no one noticed?
The racist troll wasn't saying anything coherent.
Please don't feed him. That's what he lives for.
"Whatever else you can say about Joe Manchin, he's sincere in his beliefs. If he weren't, he'd be happy to bargain over his opposition to ending the filibuster."
And this is why sincerity and authenticity are monstrously overrated in politics. We would be a lot better off with a grubby wheeler-dealer who could be bought off with a fat military contract or two.
So, Joe Manchin, what's your mental problem?
https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-west-virginia-gop-voters-back-democrats-election-bill-conservative-opposition-mounts-1591695
"Whatever else you can say about Joe Manchin, he's sincere in his beliefs." -- KD
Being sincere in holding ridiculous beliefs is not something worthy of praise or respect.
I sincerely believe that the earth is 6,000 years old. I sincerely believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election. I sincerely believe that Republicans care about democracy.
There are differences in "sincerity" among politicians, but that is usually not the thing to look at when figuring out why they vote they way they do. The two things required to explain Manchin's stances are 1) he wants to get re-elected, and 2) his state is overwhelmingly Republican. Thus he can't take a position that appears to be partisan and directed against Republicans. It was always wishful thinking to expect him to come down against the filibuster. He might go for an infrastructure bill, if his state gets goodies.