When I show crime rates I normally use the FBI's figures, which are tallied up from police reports. An alternate source is the National Crime Victimization Survey, which calls up people and asks them if they've been the victim of a crime in the past year.
The NCVS figures for 2023 were released today, but there are a couple of things you have to do to compare them with the FBI numbers. First, the "all violent crime" category has to include only aggravated assault, not simple assault, since that's how the FBI does it. Second, you have to include only crimes reported to the police. Luckily the NCVS reports the numbers this way in addition to providing a simple headline number.
As it turns out, neither of these things affect the trend numbers much, but you still have to do it if you want an apples-to-apples comparison. Here it is:
Using the modified NCVS numbers, violent crime was down 6% in 2023. Using the raw headline number, crime was down 10%.
One thing you'll notice is that the NCVS bounces around a lot, so single-year figures aren't super reliable. Another thing you'll notice is that there was no pandemic crime spike.
That's because there wasn't, though no one seems to have noticed. There was a pandemic murder spike, but even the FBI figures show only tiny changes in overall violent crime during the pandemic. The NCVS—which doesn't count homicides since you can't survey homicide victims—shows a considerable crime decline during the pandemic.
So what really happened? My best read of the evidence is that murders went way up in 2020 and have been declining ever since, while other violent crime probably changed very little. The yearly NCVS numbers jump around a bunch but always revert to a mean a little below 0.4%, just like the FBI's numbers. That's probably about where they've been for the entire past decade except for the 2020-22 murder spree, which remains unexplained.
Sigh, first with the "inflation statistics" and then with the "FBI crime data." Any OTHER Deep State propaganda you want to try to peddle?
Look, the Leader has spoken, and we have NEVER had inflation like we have now, EVER, not even in the worst of the OPEC shock or the 25% "misery index" or EVER LIKE NOBODY'S EVER SEEN, and likewise crime is just OUT OF CONTROL with MILLIONS and MILLIONS just POURING across our border and burning our cities -- you've heard about Portland? -- and eating our cats and dogs and everything.
This is Required Belief. All your "facts" and "citations" to the contrary do not, CANNOT, matter. Oh and he won the debate and all the polls say so.
Also Oceania has *always* been at war with Eurasia.
Also the Trump Health Care Plan will be released in two weeks.
Is there a break-down in murders by relationships? I guess if you are locked down with someone whom you don't really like, but you're stuck with them, you have no escape by smothering them with a pillow. More seriously, are the crimes more domestic violence, or less random, or the same as every other years?
Young black men in the US die from gun homicide at a rate which is 25 times higher than that of the general population.
The rate of gun-related homicides spiked during the pandemic, as did Black male deaths. The most significant increases in gun-related homicide between 2019-2020 occurred among Black males, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
"So what really happened? My best read of the evidence is that murders went way up in 2020 and have been declining ever since, while other violent crime probably changed very little. ..."
I doubt that very much. The murder numbers are much more reliable and I expect they are indicative of a jump in serious violent crimes. What happened to the number of people who got shot? Hard to believe it didn't jump more or less just like the murder rate.
So, you think people just didn't report rapes, assaults and robberies?
"So, you think people just didn't report rapes, assaults and robberies?"
In many cases yes. And in other cases the cops fail to properly record the reports to make their numbers look better. And I don't know how these violent crime indices are computed but if they weight all violent crimes equally then they will be dominated by the most common least serious crimes.
Okay, so you're delusional. Got it.
Crime is down because you just can't compete with the Republicans.
This is what they've done for society.
Is it really surprising that when domestic violence shelters shut down there was a spike in murders? It seems predictable.
That would make sense if the murder spike had mainly affected women, but it didn't.
This meme is awfully hard to beat. Republicans, especially the ranting Trump mindset, live off fear, of such things as crime and immigrants. Much of the media has always gone with "if it bleeds, it leads," but here in NYC it's obvious in The Daily News, which is otherwise quite the opposite of the other tabloid, The New York Post, a Murdoch propaganda organ.
The mayor needs it, because he ran as a one-issue candidate, crime, and falls back on it now that his re-election prospects are in the tank. The governor needs it, because (while nominally a democrat supportive of housing, say) her chances come from playing to her upstate constituency, reassuring them that it's safe in her state should you ever picture the city. And so we put up with announcements on trains that cops are there to help you, even as train frequency and delays are hopeless.
To Hell With The Political Bullshit!!!
Lets look at the skys!!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7r79l88jeo
Can't a 2020-2022 murder spike be explained simply by "people were stuck in their houses with the same people all the time and freaked out"?
There's long been a holiday murder spike. As one police spokesman put it, "People have to spend time with their loved ones."