The good news for Nikki Haley is that she's risen from 5% to 10% in the polls:
The bad news is that in September she was 47 points behind Trump. Today, with Trump doing barely anything aside from writing unhinged posts on Truth Social, she's 49 points behind.
I'm beginning to think that all the challengers are just laundering money.
Never underestimate the ego of a politician.
That has been the case for the GOP for years. They aren't really running, they're setting up book deals, TV gigs, and fishing for lobbying jobs. It's just a way to get press paid for by someone else.
Haley has been gaining support at the expense of DeSantis and Ramaswamy! Can I have a job as an election analyst with the Washington Post or similar now please? I promise I can turn that opening line into 600 words of deep bullshit.
2 points is statistical noise.
And if you listen carefully, that noise is saying, "Haley is toast."
You don't have to listen carefully to hear that.
Christy-mas is coming!!! 'Tis the season!!!
The Republican primary has always been a race for who would be the front runner if Trump has to drop out for medical or legal reasons. Basically all that Haley and DeSantis have shown is how weak they are as candidates (Ramaswamy is, of course, a joke). They are all so bad that Trump doesn’t even have to think about them as his running mate. I suppose a more interesting poll would be of who the Trump people prefer as a second choice (and if they would vote at all if Trump wasn’t the candidate).
I suspect that if you asked Trump voters who their second choice is, a large percentage of them would say they're Trump Or Bust (not gonna vote at all if he's not on the ballot) and another large percentage would say their second, third, fourth and forever choice is Trump (because they don't believe they should have to compromise ever on their #1 preference). Trump voters aren't exactly known for their strategery.
Indeed. You have spoken truth Austin.
Austin
Most Trump voters would NOT vote at all should Trump NOT be on the ballot. Would Trump supporters who DO vote write his name in? I dunno, it seems far fetched to think they would do that in any great numbers.
Trump not being on the ballot changes the game immensely
I give Trump 90% odds of winning the GOP nomination. But I still don't think it's 100%. And I'll note "Anybody but Trump" would appear to enjoy the support of nearly half of Republicans. Also, the opinions of voters in the first 2-3 contests are more important than those of "all" Republicans at this point.
As has long been evident, consolidation of the non-Trump vote remains the key: if it doesn't happen (and it probably won't, at least not sufficiently early or decisively) then yes, Trump is the nominee. But it still might: the race to my eyes looks increasingly like a two person contest. I just don't think GOP voters (nor maybe the media) have quite caught up with this reality. Christie's a non-factor. Vivek has clearly already enjoyed his moment, which is now gone. It's too late for Youngkin. And RDS is, well, done.
That leaves Haley and Trump.
Plenty of the roughly 50% that supports other candidates are not anybody but Trump. Trump may be their second choice and they would shrug and say "oh well lets beat those socialist godless furry dems" so its preference not really opposition. They like Trump they just thing he has baggage
About 2/3rds of Trump supporters tell pollsters they're open to alternatives.
I think your assessment is way over optimistic with regard to Republicans actually supporting a non-white woman to be President.
Seven or eight percent odds is "way" over optimistic?
unless he's convicted and imprisoned or dies i'd put trump's odds above 95%. and honestly, i'm not quite sure how a conviction would play out with republican primary voters. maybe he'd still win.
Trump is currently polling at 60% in the Republican primary. DeSantis is in second place, and he has been attempting to run as “Trump without the baggage.” If DeSantis drops out, some of his supporters will switch to Trump.
Trump's position is a little less solid in Iowa, where he currently polls at 45%, but DeSantis is at 17.5%, so if DeSantis drops out that's enough to push Trump over 50%.
In New Hampshire, Trump is at 45% and Haley is in second place at 19%. Christie is third at 12%, and his voters would mostly go to Haley in a Trump/Haley contest. The remaining candidates total 25% of the vote; Haley would have to get 4/5 of them to beat Trump in a two person race.
If Trump wins in Iowa and Haley wins in New Hampshire, Trump probably wins the nomination because he has more that 50% of the nationwide vote.
The bottom line is that Trump is the nominee unless he drops out of the race or something causes large numbers of his supporters to abandon him. I would place his chance of being the Republican nominee at about 96%.
Sidney Powell looks like an abusive kangaroos' mom,
https://www.rawstory.com/sidney-powell-trump-2666040697/