The Wall Street Journal says today that plug-in hybrids are finally getting popular. Let's check on that:
If you stop right at March and squint a bit, as the Journal does, it might look like plug-in hybrids are doing a little better than EVs. But why cherry pick? We have figures through last month, and it's pretty obvious that plug-in hybrids had only a fleeting few months of success. Since the start of 2022, plug-in hybrid sales have increased 86% compared to 135% for full EVs. Over the past year, sales are down 4% compared to flat for EVs.
Come on, folks. Stop writing trend stories that aren't backed up by reality.
I read the article, but couldn't figure out the 'so-what". Was it a slow news week last week?
Ford announced they're backing off full EV's and will be pushing out hybrids. Battery economics, especially for larger trucks, is not good--for now.
I just snagged a 24 Maverick hybrid and am getting 55 mpg in mixed driving. No kidding, as I checked the old fashioned way rather than just going by what the dash is saying.
Is there a reason you didn't do this as a PIH-as-percent-of-EV chart, with just one line? Because that's what you're TRYING to say and what you're arguing with, but it's not what you did with your chart.
Whether you intended to or not, you're using "lying with charts" tricks. It took a minute to see that you used a different scale on the right than on the left. This obfuscates the fact that, as a percent of EV sales, PIH sales really DID jump up for a multi-month period at the end of 2023 and early 2024. The gap is back since then, but as always... gotta look at what it does from here.
So I say: you're both wrong because I can't look at your chart and say "yes, this supports his argument" (and for some of your chart, it refutes your argument to a degree)... but I also think the Journal (which why are you still taking it seriously/why are you fact-checking the Journal? That's like fact-checking Trump - just stop) is cherry-picking.
“as a percent of EV sales PIH sales did jump”
Even that is barely true. Just eyeballing the charts it looks like they never got over about 40% of EV sales. It looks like normally it’s been around 25%, so, yeah, technically that is a jump. But hardly a very impressive one.
If you put a chart out and something went from 25% to 40% (an increase of 60%, proportionally), you'd say it jumped.
Sure, it's still much lower, and there's that gap again at the end - but Kevin still manipulated his chart.
There were reports of many EVs on dealer lots. If the price went down people started to buy them again. If a shortage now occurs and sales goes down again the WSJ can crank out the same story.
I have to say I am really enjoying my Kia EV6 lease. I put down $3500 and the monthly is $316 for 36 months. I told the dealer I wanted something to match a Polestar 2 promotion and they did it. Spent $1100 to get a 240v outlet on the front of the house. Car is a AWD Light long range in the Pacific NW. Super nice so far!
Yep, we have an ID4 and the only real advantage that plugin hybrids have is that if you take a trip of more than 180mi, it takes a lot less tie to "recharge" by filling up with gas. We have made the trip from SF to SoCal a number of times and it isn't that big a deal. The only thing I would say is if your route goes by an Electrify America station with 8 or more "pumps", plan to stop there even if you aren't maxed out on range as it greatly improves the odds that one pump will be working and available. I don't know why EA has so much trouble keeping their stations operating.
Do you see condo owners agreeing to assess themselves $5-10K to add plug-in access to their parking stalls? Or cities adding ports throughout the city, adjacent to on-street parking in the next decade?
PHEVs don't need to be plugged to run, so it seems likely that PHEVs and hybrids will make up a growing amount of new car sales until infrastructure catches up.
All I know from SoCal is that SDG&E had a program to put Chargepoint Chargers into Condos and apartments. Our absolutely brilliant HOA President had 10 installed into our complex.
Over 20 Teslas and PHEVs use them. And that includes one Cybertruck. Clearly designed by a boy with a cardboard box.
I have a PHEV and I think it's a great choice for someone who (a) has daily driving needs within the full-battery range (~25 miles for me), (b) has occasional longer-trip needs that don't allow for multiple 30=minute stops along the way, (c) has a garage to charge overnight at home, and (d) lives in a cold climate where the battery drain for cabin heating in winter is just too hard to handle.
I live in Chicago and about 80% of my miles are on battery. When I'm in hybrid mode, I average around 40-45 mpg. The car was also about 20% less expensive than a pure EV.
I think plug in hybrids make a lot of sense in situations like those you describe. I considered getting one but the reliability seemed to be an issue.
Batteries are a significant portion of the cost of building an EV. This means unlike IC cars , large EV’s with large batteries are proportionately more expensive to build than smaller EV’s with smaller batteries. Small EV’s intended for primarily for commuting may be the sweet spot for today’s EV market. Cheaper to build, they can also recharge overnight at home, avoiding the need to depend on today’s wretched charging networks (Tesla excluded).
Not quite so. With the smaller battery in a PHEV, you have the additional cost of an entire IC drivetrain and the interconnections. Overall it's approximately a wash. Look at PHEV and EV and you'll find the costs are pretty close.
The chart does appear to show significant growth in PHEV sales over the last few years. This was the point of the article and Kevin has now confirmed it....but he wants us to think otherwise because....hey l99k at this chart, it doesnt actually show they were wrong, but it is a chart!
I appreciate the humor in demanding that they not cherry pick a date followed by the demand that they cherry pick other dates. Hot Take!
Hybrids are a violation of Murphy's Law and reliability statistics. Basic fact: the more parts you have in a system, the more likely it is to break. That's why most big commercial aircraft have two engines instead of four.
Hybrids have two propulsive systems AND they interconnect, meaning that if one side fails, it will take down the other.
They DO work, yes, but basic statistics says they will inevitably and inherently be less reliable. Anything that isn't in a design won't break.
I have an '03 diesel VW with 320,000 miles on the odometer, gets 40-50MPG. The body and the assorted electronics, switches, etc will likely fail long before there is any problem with propulsion. Simplicity, simplicity.
And all electric is better yet, if the wizards would just keep from adding all the Jetsons' space-age (dys)functionality to it.
I'm a big believer in simplicity but in this case you have oversimplified.
An internal combustion engine of any sort is much more complicated than an
electric car but engineers have had 120 years to perfect it. That said, Toyota
has been working on hybrids for a while now - 25 years or more. I have a 12 year old Prius with 220,000 miles and it is the most problem free car I've ever owned.
This makes some sense when sitting in an armchair, but in reality doesn't seem to have borne out. I did have to replace the transaxle on my Ford C-Max PHEV, but it was covered under the 100K warranty. Other than that, no problems with the complicated interplay between engine and electric motor.
Another comment on Kevin's post -- the basis for the claim of PHEVs "taking off" is not based on sales, but based on the fact that automakers are launching a bunch of new PHEV models to help meet their CAFE standards. Apples and oranges.
"Basic fact: the more parts you have in a system, the more likely it is to break."
Something you are missing from that "basic fact" is use. Sure, a PHEV has more "parts" than I guess either a pure ICE car or a pure EV, but it's not using the gas drive when it's running on electric, so there isn't much wear and tear. Since a gas drive will easily last 100k-200k miles, running on electric for much/most of the time means that the gas drive will likely outlast the car.
Plus, you've miscontrued this whole thing. A PHEV doesn't run on both the EV and gas drives at the same time, such that a problem with either is a problem for the whole. Your argument is akin to saying that somebody buying a second car is a foolish endeavor on the theory that it would somehow double the risk of malfunction in whichever car that person at the moment.
A hybrid's powertrain can actually be simpler than an ICE-only's powertrain. For example, Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive has a transmission that is a single planetary gear set plus two motor-generators. By electrically transferring torque between the two motor-generators the entire required range of gear ratios are simulated. Compare that to the byzantine complexity of the common 5-speed automatic transmission, with all its valves, actuators, sensors, clutches, and gears.
When you get a chance, how about a roundup of all the bs WSJ trend stories. It could be a quarterly feature.
I'm not clear on the difference between regular hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Since I'm thinking of going in that general direction in the next year or so, I'd appreciate any advice.
A PHEV has a battery pack and charge port and internal combustion engine. About 30 - 40 miles of electric only range plus a gas engine. So you get electric city driving and can drive the length of the I-5 if you need to, without recharging.