I don’t know how much more plainly I can say it than this: If you believe that Donald Trump represents a unique threat to democracy — as Joe Biden and his team keep saying that they do — then you should not want Donald Trump on the ballot. There are no exceptions to this rule. If Trump is the nominee, he has a chance of winning. If he is a threat to the republic, he ought not to be in a position from which he has a chance of winning. The moment — the very moment — that you start muttering about jolts of energy to voters and donors, or about the best contrast to be drawn, or about motivators of Democrats, you have signaled that you don’t actually consider Trump to be the risk that you say you do.
Hey, this is bound to happen occasionally. But he's right: Even if you think Trump is the easiest Republican to beat, you shouldn't be hoping he'll be their nominee. He could win, after all. Even if the fundamentals are against him, stuff can happen. Maybe the economy goes sour. Maybe Biden has a heart attack. Who knows?
It goes without saying that I have no love for Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. But they are ordinary Republicans. The country will survive four or eight years of a Republican presidency, just like it always has. But another four years of Trump? The country will survive, but it will come out the other end pretty damaged.
But at this point it no longer matters. Trump is going to be the nominee, and now we just have to make sure he doesn't win.
My only question: Will the liberal Church of Doom repeat 2000 and 2016 and give the election to the Rs?
To cheer you up, with lots of footage of a Republican I actually miss (relatively speaking)
https://youtu.be/oburdXEjcl4?feature=shared
I guess from your name that you live in AZ. So, in light of the polling I've seen, how the hell do you expect Biden to win AZ this time?
alito wants him on the ballot so it's a done deal
What's with all the recent right-wing hand wringing and recriminations about which Republicans the Democrats supposedly want to win the nomination? To state the obvious, perhaps Republicans ought to take charge of the situation themselves, decide who they want, and vote for them in the primaries.
But regarding all the 14th Amendment speculation, I'm enjoying it not because it will work (it won't) but because trolling is fun and harmless.
I'm firmly in the camp of use every lever you've got to maximize your chances of getting out the other side in one piece.
I wish Haley could win the Republican nomination. It probably won't happen, but until she drops out, try to make it happen.
If the 14th amendment has even a glimmer of a chance of working, run with it.
Do everything you can to dissuade "No Labels".
For the next year, take whatever help you can from Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger. We can argue partisan politics with them another day.
Get as many of those "99% likely not to work" probabilities lined up. 5-dimensional chess is for after first saving democracy.
+1
"But they are ordinary Republicans. "
Eh, no. Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Chistie Todd Whitman (though she left) are "ordinary Republicans".
Haley and DeSantis are MAGA through and through, and indebted to that movement for any support that would get them in the White House. They might not be as immediately dangerous, but they are still poisonous to the nation.
I think DeSantis is pretty close to being as toxic as Trump, but without the cult following. As much as I dislike Haley I don’t think she’s much worse than any other Republican. But really, in the Republican Party she has no chance at all in a primary.
haley's calling for 'consensus' on abortion
as in 'texas has reached its consensus at 6 weeks, and that's fine with me'
also 'ohio's consensus is that 10 year old rape victims can't terminate the pregnancy, and that's fine too'
".. haley's calling for 'consensus' on abortion.."
But she is not going to abolish democracy and the constitutional order, and that is far more important. So she is much much less bad than Trump (even though much much worse than Biden or any democrat).
DeSantis also very unlikely to abolish democracy, though it is less safe than Haley.
I somewhat agree on Haley, but DeSantis is just Trump with less charisma.
When the rules didn't suit him in Florida he had the rules changed in his favor, which is the exact same thing Trump wanted. The only difference is that Trump didn't have enough legislators to go along with him in Congress, while DeSantis did in Florida.
If he saw a chance, you can bet DeSantis would appoint himself dictator as fast as Trump could.
Don't forget that the standard position in the GOP has long been to oppose legalized abortion in many or most cases. This was only kept in check by Roe. So I think Haley is if anything among the more liberal on abortion in that she is okay with many states continuing to offer legalized abortion.
Anyone who thinks 6 weeks is agreeable is basically saying illegal.
I think that is all correct. DeSantis would keep alive the MAGA toxicity much more so than Haley.
And Haley lacks the sociopathic mind of Trump. Trump lies so much, and with absolutely no shame about it. And he is talented in that he picks lies that he can dupe people into believing, and then he shamelessly repeats them over and over. He has no moral compass to hold him back.
Narcissistic sociopaths are very harmful to others. The non-MAGA persons in this country have certainly learned this lesson. It's hard to imagine that a man with a mind like Trump's became president, and might do so again.
Yeah the phrase "ordinary" (or "moderate") Republican automatically makes me suspicious. By all polls and anecdata and every other measure, a solid majority of self-identified Republicans actively support Trump, both as the nominee and for President, and at least half of the others may have some reservations about him but will vote for him anyway because Reasons ("the border," "taxes," "regulations," "radical" Democrats, Biden's age, something Our Country something America something). "Ordinary" Republicans support Trump, and insofar as "moderate Republican" means one who doesn't support Trump in word or action, there are precious few of them.
Right?! Even if you take "ordinary" to mean what it meant before the Shrub, their plans are still very dangerous: strangle institutions, prune rights, defund the safety net meanwhile subsidizing Capital, etc etc. ←Those are just some of the ideas that were mainstream prior to the turn of the century. The change is the bombast, not the ideas.
.. are "ordinary Republicans".
"Old style republicans" probably better description.
Can we all start focusing on an intense cardiac event for t-Rump, very soon and all together folks. Blue needs to win this one.
Anyone else dazzled by all the post-mortems for DeSantis claiming his campaign never had a chance?
They're all over the place, in thinkpieces and pundit chat shows. Yet virtually none of the journalists saying this now were saying so last year.
If it was as obvious as now claimed, why was no one saying so until now? I recall only portrayals of DeSantis as a serious contender this time last year.
It was clear to me that DeSantis never had a chance, and I suspect it was equally obvious to the punditry. However, the media generally NEEDS horse races and will do their best to create one, even if the other "horse" is actually a three toed sloth.
Agreed.
Now, can someone tell that to the entirety of the Republican Party, because it looks like a good 60%+ of them are absolutely giddy about getting another chance to elect a Strongman who might try to overthrow the government...again.
It is the correct conditional statement--IF you believe Trump represents a unique threat to democracy, yadda yadda yadda. I do believe that, so if I had a magic wand that could make Haley the nominee, I'd do it even if I believed that Biden was much more likely to lose to her. But I'm betting that Cooke supports Trump over Biden, so fuck him sideways with a chainsaw.
Trump is unique. He is a cult leader. He's a sadist. He would destroy our system of governance. Even his origins is singular (no previous political or military background). He rules the GOP like a mob boss.
None of the Republican candidates are anywhere near that. I don't like DeSantis, but wanted him out there. Best that he'd get the nomination, but if not, at least erode Trump's support, even if it's by a small amount.
I have been reading Trump's social media for a year. His mind is conspiratorial, vicious, and without any concern for others. He demands complete loyalty (submission). He will say anything, do anything, go anywhere, to crush an opponent.
... and his supporters LIKE that. The MAGAts absolutely adore it -- they're a personality cult -- and most "moderate Republicans" approve of it (even if they'd prefer a slightly softer approach) because Something Has To Be Done About [choose one or more] "the border," "radical Democrats," "woke-ism," "big gummint," "my taxes," "the cost of living" ...
I think a lot of people still underestimate the degree to which Trump is a symptom and not a cause of Republican revanchism. He is uniquely pathological, and in that way probably accelerated the trend, but the trend was there all along, beginning at latest with Reagan (Perlstein takes it back to Goldwater) and coming to full flower with Gingrich and the "Tea Party." This is what "ordinary Republicans" WANT.
+10
Really gotta wonder what the true median IQ of the American public is if biden is less popular than Trump was at this point in his term. I’m guessing it’s single digits. I interact with the general public on a daily basis and my guess is 50% of them are functionally illiterate so…
I agree. But it goes beyond low IQ, I think. Even intelligent people can be sometimes brainwashed, like most MAGA are. All it takes is to get control of their emotions, fill their hearts with fear, and you've got them. The mind will follow the emotions, and find "reasons" to hate others.
Trump is EVIL - and should not be in power
BUT the others are nearly as EVIL - and almost certainly more competent
The USA will survive an incompetent evil better than a competent evil
The less Congress tells them, the more the agencies wonder, question, and fumble. The more Congress tells them, the less it will itself accomplish. Agencies wind up doing a huge amount of the work of creating regs, *with oversight from Congressional Committees*, or more usually, their staffs. Goldberg does not get this; Drum does.
IMO it's already pretty much done how people think it ought to be. I say this as a 20+-year employee of the Federal government, who merely worked a few years putting together just one section of a field-level Director's Order. It ain't the picnic some people seem to think.
Congress passes the broadest statements of its intent that will narrow the effect to what it desires. Some call that "vague' or "ambigous." It's only that Congress has other things to get on with. The narrower the law, the more detailed it has to be, and the less likely it is to cover every contingency, and the more likely that something else will be crowded off Congress' plate.
Agencies put together and publish regs to cover all the activities under that umbrella, and any one statement can affect myriad activities, and every one of them must be considered and dealt with to match Congress' intent, AND the Constitution, AND laws already in effect.
I'll just insert one other item: yes, it absolutely is a sausage factory. Which may be why people who are focused on prime rib, and ONLY prime rib, might be unhappy with the result.
I wish that Kevin was as meticulous about his election graphs as he is about his economic charts. His graph, evidently based on just Gallup polling, shows an upturn in Biden's approval.
538.com, based on poll averages, shows no such upturn, with Biden mired at around 39%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Contrast this with Trump's favorability, now up to 43%:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
I refuse to close my eyes to such obvious bad news. Just when is Biden going to magically turn this around?
Approval rating and favorability are not the same thing. We can talk about it after you recover from Biden's reelection.
No, let's talk about it now. If Biden is re-elected, I will be surprised as hell, but it will be a favorable outcome, nothing to recover from.
I just can't understand the complacency of so many Democrats in the face of so much negative objective information as to Biden's electability. So, if you've got anything to say, say it now.
Guarded and still narrow optimism yes, because polls generally are increasingly unreliable for many reasons out of the control of pollsters and because polls this early -- and in winter, and on the heels of a sustained campaign of economic pessimism by the major media for reasons unclear -- just aren't a very reliable indicator of voting behavior long before campaigns have heated up or most voters have started paying attention.
But complacency no! Donate NOW! Volunteer as soon as opportunities start opening up (pretty thin in January). Organize, if you can spare the time and energy. And ffs VOTE when the time comes, and make sure your friends vote too!
FWIW, I think complacency was a problem for Dems in 2016, but I think we've learned our lesson. I do not think Dems are or will be complacent this year.
DeSantis was not an ordinary republican. The fascist cast of the GOP will continue under Haley in a slower but still advancing form. They will be less threatening but still a threat to actual democracy.
I don't disagree. But let's not pretend things will get better. They will get worse slower, maybe. President Haley could still obliterate the civil service like Trump plans too.
I disagree vehemently!! I absolutely DO want Trumpnas the nominee if he is the most easily defeated. From what I can see in Haley’s and DeSantis’ backgrounds, there is every reason to believe they are just as likely to destroy democracy. Let us not forget that, whatever else they may be, the MAGAts are useful idiots for the oligarchs who really would prefer to see us return to feudalism. There is NO Republican potential candidate who would not install a dictatorship. Newt Gingrich made quite clear that all-out cheating, lying, and rat fuckery is the “right” way to win and be the change they want to see in the world. For those in the back who couldn’t hear, that’s FEUDALISM.
I always hear these sorts of things thrown around to scold the left ("how dare you want this dumb bad thing!"), but I rarely hear it actually coming from the left ("we want this dumb bad thing!"), much less anyone on the left with any real say-so on anything. No one wants Trump on the ballot, we wanted to see Republican ditch him like their ass was on fire.
Feels like a real strawman argument.
> I have no love for Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. But they are ordinary Republicans.
Bull shit. At this point Trump has validated bat-shit crazy. In no way should "bat-shit crazy" be accepted as "ordinary republicans". We don't want any of these cretins on the ballot because of what it tells us about 30% of Americans. We want Americans to be better than that.