Here are a few miscellaneous thoughts about Donald Trump's sit-down at the Economic Club of Chicago with Bloomberg editor John Micklethwait. The full thing is on YouTube here.
Near the beginning Trump spent what seemed like forever telling a "sir" story about a friend named John who builds auto plants and is currently building the world's biggest auto plant in Mexico. John supposedly told Trump a few days ago that the project had been abandoned because the owners were afraid Trump would win the election and put big tariffs on cars from Mexico.
Oddly, this story has a kernel of truth, but the friend's name is Elon, not John. Tesla had plans to build a factory in Monterrey that would produce a million cars a year, placing it among the world's biggest. But a few months ago Elon Musk said it was "on hold" because of concern over possible Trump tariffs.
This may or may not be the real reason for the pause. It certainly makes no sense since Trump can't raise tariffs on Mexican cars no matter how much he wants to. This is for the obvious reason that trade with Mexico is governed by the USMCA (aka "NAFTA 2.0"), which Trump called "the single greatest agreement ever signed" after he negotiated it. It went into effect in 2020.
After talking a bit more about tariffs, his "favorite word in the dictionary," Trump decided to go directly after Micklethwait, a longtime proponent of free trade: "It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as negative and then have somebody explain to you that you're totally wrong." Uh huh.
Trump defended tariffs by reference to the steel tariffs he levied on China and other countries. "We saved our steel," he said. But if you look at the numbers since then, overall steel imports have gone up and domestic production has gone down:
Economics then had to take a back seat as Trump once again claimed that before he was president South Korea paid nothing to support the US military presence there. He says he demanded $5 billion and settled for $2 billion. "I got $2 billion for nothing." But then lamebrain Joe Biden caved in and let the payments lapse.
This is fantasy. The US has had a cost sharing agreement with South Korea since 1991. In 2017 it amounted to about $860 million. South Korea agreed to increase that to $930 million in 2019, but after that negotiations broke down because Trump did indeed demand $5 billion. So he got nothing. It was left to President Biden to negotiate a new deal at $1.02 billion with automatic annual increases.
South Korea pays other US defense expenses too, notably including about $10 billion toward the construction of a new Camp Humphreys 40 miles south of Seoul. It is the largest overseas US military base in the world.
Micklethwait struggled manfully to keep Trump on topic, and seemed slightly relieved when Trump was willing to address the issue of the dollar as a reserve currency. Hey, it's an economic topic, at least. "If you want to go to third world status," Trump warned, "lose your reserve currency."
Unfortunately, Trump didn't seem to know what it even meant to be a reserve currency. He talked repeatedly about countries saying they would "no longer be in the reserve currency," which makes no sense. Nobody is in or out of a reserve currency. It's just a matter of a currency being viewed as strong and safe and therefore worth holding and worth paying your bills in. The world has several already. The dollar is the biggest, but the yen, the euro, and the pound are all reserve currencies too.
In any case, Trump naturally insisted that Joe Biden was a moron who was tossing away the dollar's reserve status. He seems not to realize that the dollar got weaker on his watch and stronger under Biden:
Trump also complained that Fed chair Jerome Powell kept interest rates too high while he was president—until Trump threatened to fire him. That scared him so much he cut rates immediately. In fact, "he dropped them too much."
This is nuts. Even in 2019, when the economy was running hot, interest rates were always below 2.5%. Late in the year they were lowered moderately, but it was only after the pandemic started that they went to zero—as they certainly should have.
Then Micklethwait made the mistake of asking Trump precisely what he'd do to cut waste in the government. It probably seemed like a nice, concrete question, but Trump wouldn't answer. Instead he took the opportunity to yet again brag about how he saved $1.7 billion dollars almost overnight on a new pair of Air Force Ones. All he had to was call the CEO of Boeing and ask, something that no one before him had ever thought to do.
This is yet another Trump fantasy. He played no role in negotiating the Boeing contract, which ended up where everyone always thought it would. But no one ever challenges him, so he keeps repeating this tall tale every chance he gets.
On the subject of fantasies, Trump also insisted that he gave Apple a break on tariffs but only if they started manufacturing in the US. And they did! They opened a factory in Austin to make Mac Pros.
Except for one little detail: that factory opened in 2013, long before Trump was around. But he's been taking credit for it anyway since 2019.
After it was all over and Trump had done nothing but repeat his usual lies and demonstrate that he knows nothing about the economy, his fans at Fox News immediately began marveling at Trump's masterful performance in schooling Micklethwait. Why, Trump's command of economics was so overwhelming the poor guy never stood a chance. Seriously, they said that. It's a case study in toadying unrivaled in recent history.
One of the many positives I would see in Harris beating Trump is that the blatherings of Trump would no longer be relevant and we all could happily ignore him. But it WOULD deprive Kevin of one his leading topics for this blog...
I think Kevin would be willing to pay that price. l know I would.
i disagree.
Not everyone enjoys the chaos, ignorance and stupidity. Just think of it as if you had stopped posting here. You wouldn't be missed either.
"I disagree."
You? Who are you?
An idiot right-winger pretending to be an idiot left-winger.
He'll get over it. So will everyone else. I think at this point not having to hear about Trump or hear his voice will be welcomed as a great relief. I look forward to the day. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
One of the many positives I would see in Harris beating Trump is that the blatherings of Trump would no longer be relevant and we all could happily ignore him.
There are myriad reasons to look forward to the aftermath of Harris's inflicting a defeat on Trump. But he won't go away quietly. Did he do so in 2021-2024? I seriously doubt society or the media will ignore him. And I think there's a perfectly strong chance he'll run again in 2028. You'd certainly think the GOP would find a way to send him off to pasture. But you'd think that would've been the case after he staged a coup and was twice impeached. Didn't work out that way. And here were are three weeks from an election that likely gives him a 50% shot at becoming POTUS again.
At this point I fear it's pretty likely we won't be done with him unless his cognitive health truly collapses or he dies. (And no, going to a Federal country club prison for 14 months isn't guaranteed to do it, either.)
Thank God he's not ten years younger.
This election is taking a toll on his health. It may be the death of him. He should have stayed a corrupt private citizen.
Right. He could have lived the last 15-20 years of his life in affluent splendor—and with a significant amount of the fame he so clearly needs. But instead—with all his criminal baggage and sordid past—he pursues the one position that comes in for more intense scrutiny than any other on the planet.
... Because he wants to suppress population like Putin does.
I don't think that was the initial reason. He wanted the fame and prestige. Now he's just out for revenge.
Not thinking is not a good method of understanding the world. You should look for evidence.
We have tons of evidence that he admires dictators, and specially "strong" ones, i.e. those that suppress population effectively. He already tried to do it in the first term (very unsuccessfully, but did try), and he shows clear signs that he intends to do it this time.
The initial reason Trump ran for president, rather than just bloviating about the possibility like he had for decades, is because Barack Obama made fun of him.
"And I think there's a perfectly strong chance he'll run again in 2028."
If he loses in 2024, there's a perfectly strong chance he'll be in prison or dead by 2028.
Neither of which would stop enough Republicans from voting for him to keep him from winning the nomination.
Stephen Miller tweeted:
No, I didn't make that up.
https://x.com/StephenM/status/1846254951149838444
Joseph Goebbels was an absolute rank amateur compared to this crowd.
He's another person I look forward to never having to hear of or hear from ever again. He is worse than Goebbels. Hitler was far more intelligent than Trump is. To make Trump out to be a genius is some heavy duty propaganda.
Miller is truly loathsome. Agreed.
It's not surprising that he doesn't know shit. After all, he claimed to be "a stable genius", and as everyone knows, that's a sign that he's scared to be exposed as an idiot.
But a part of me still thinks about the wonderful potential to experience Schadenfreude from Trump sending the economy into a tailspin, his name permanently attached to the title of Worst President in American History, and to see him suffer an ignoble death while in office, scared of how much Americans hate him. Oh, and Trump unintentionally triggering a massive blue wave that clears out Republican control across the board.
It takes a few years to destroy an economy as big as ours. He'd probably be dead by the time people notice, and at that point they'd blame JD for the disaster instead. Then the Democrat who is elected to clean up the mess would be hated by all for the necessary tax increases.
It took nearly 2 full terms for Americans to notice that W's wars were a bad idea and for the housing bubble to pop. It took the UK years to figure out how bad the Tories are, and they still haven't come to terms with how bad Brexit is. Schadenfreude is tempting, but people are so clueless they may never properly assign blame.
In general, yeah, macro policy takes a while. But, you've seen Trump's policy plans, right? He's not aiming to go slow with his changes; he's going to try to go all in with everything at the same time. The way I think of it is a stimulus package but in reverse.
I'm also betting that he won't know how to fix a crashing economy (except to claim that everything is fine and to blame Democrats) and he won't understand what his economic experts are advising him to do. And because conservative dogma gets macro backwards -- like Art Laffer -- most things that they manage to do will further worsen the crash.
If he puts his tarrifs into place immediately the effects would be too im guessing. The disturbing thing is his base will still support him. They'd suffer economically to support dear leader. Most farmers still did after he screwed them over with tarrifs. If I'm remembering things correctly.
Do not overestimate the ability of the American electorate, the true believer part in particular, to think rationally. The apparent basis of their most ardent beliefs is irrational.
What is worse than a psychopath running for president, He won’t admit he’s wrong even when he knows he made an error.
A demented psychopath psychopath running for president. He still won’t admit he’s wrong but it’s because he’s too far gone to know he made an error.
The latter appears to be Trump.
I saw a bit of this interview and remember them all cheering when he was talking about how great tarrifs are and how the word needs some good p.r. or something along those lines. He really is an idiot. The fact that he's being portrayed as a genus proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that MAGA is a cult.
Did the interviewer not point out the role of the Smoot hawley tariffs on the great depression?
There was a lot of laughter too. I'm positive that the incidence of sociopathy in the audience was at least twice the average sample in the general population. Probably more.
I’m guessing the audience likes Trump because he will lower their taxes and deregulate their businesses. They likely don’t believe the tariff stuff. The effusive reaction by Republicans was so they could refute the “he’s old and mentally out of it and unfit for office” talk that came out of his music town hall.
I agree that Trump is probably a different species than the rest of us, but an entire genus?
If you ask Trump something that requires rational thought or accurate information, then he will either give you a fountain of lies, or he will change the subject and start blathering about a different topic.
This pattern is not new - he's been doing it since the 1980's. I don't know why people bother anymore.
Yep. People throw around terms like "idiot" when referring to him in these situations. But in some ways it's the exact opposite: nobody can lay a glove on him. He bobs, weaves, bullshits, blusters and harangues like no one we've ever seen.
I think perhaps the only way to lay a glove on him in interview situations is to truly ambush him: have him come into the situation thinking he's going to be asked about various policy issues, but then start hitting him with off-topic, really awkward stuff (alleged drug use? relationship with Epstein? money laundering via Miami and NYC condos?). Although I'm not even sure there is any really awkward stuff left when it comes to Trump: he appears completely without shame.
They called Reagan the Teflon President. Trump is the pig grease Messiah.
That's why he does interviews with the likes of Fox Entertainment. They let him get away with responding with a mountain of lies. Everywhere else he's forced to change the topic or start insulting the interviewer.
Tom is a marriage councilor, Dick and Mary are his new clients, and Tom starts the first session by asking the couple to tell him about their issues. Mary says, “Dick is the problem. He needs to stop treating me with disrespect.” Dick scoffs, and then says, “Mary loves to tell me how I need to stop treating her with disrespect, but she refuses to talk about how she needs to stop treating me with disrespect.” When Tom looks at Mary, she shrugs in agreement, so he asks her, “Why is that, Mary?” And she says, “I don’t need to stop because I’m not very good at it. He needs to stop because he’s much better at it than me.”
The end.
Tom represents the people of the world who choose to admit when they are wrong rather than insist that they are right, Dick represents the MAGA movement, and Mary represents the anti-MAGA movement.
Equating anti-MAGA behavior with MAGA behavior is a false equivalency. Bad is bad, but the Dicks of the world are much better at it.
Equating Tom and Mary is the ultimate false equivalency. Tell Tom he’s wrong with evidence and logic on your side, and you’ll change his mind. Tell Dick or Mary they’re wrong with evidence and logic on your side, and they’ll change the subject.
Who the hell is Mary supposed to represent in this silly parable. Anti-X movements are by definition diverse, (because there are a lot of reasons to be anti something). Pretending that they are all the same is idiotic. In any reasonable world, Dick is also anti-MAGA.
The silly parable is based on Viktor Frankl's silly idea that "when we are no longer able to challenge a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves."
Why on Earth would Frankl want to make things so complicated when blaming "them" and absolving "us" from blame makes things so much easier?
My mistake. Sorry for the confusion.
Just thinking that I didn't address your diversity issue, and you're right, there is a lot of diversity, and pretending that they are all the same is idiotic.
For example, there is a lot of diversity in enlightenment. Also, there is a lot of diversity in going to the dark side. And the former is as different from the latter as night and day. And thinking that they are not two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive responses to an inconvenient truth is idiotic.
Deep Thoughts, by John Handey.
More free advertising for Trump.
"But if you look at the numbers since then, overall steel imports have gone up and domestic production has gone down:" Then you have a graph which shows that steel imports went down after the Trump tariffs and by 2020 domestic production exceeded imports. "Since then" is since Biden took office. Granted that Trump's current tariff idea is stupid, but that chart doesn't show it; it shows the opposite.
You do realize that Biden never removed any of Trump's tariffs and closed a lot of the loop holes Trump encouraged. Also Trump's tariffs on steel were a joke since Obama had already levied a 90% tariff on Chinese steel.
Trump’s friend may be named Elon, but Donald calls him Leon.
"Trump can't raise tariffs on Mexican cars no matter how much he wants to. This is for the obvious reason that trade with Mexico is governed by the USMCA (aka "NAFTA 2.0")" This completely ignore the long history of the US ignoring and violating its treaty obligations.
Bless you, Kevin, a thousand times over for watching this abomination and decoding it. In the TV news, it was reported just as if it were an ordinary, boring event where a political candidate discussed his views on economic topics. Thank you for presenting the idiocy and lies in simple layman's terms.
Now if only these truths could be communicated to the multitudes who still think Trump should be president because "he's a businessman."
In this case, he's not decoding; he's reviewing and debunking.
Wait a minute. I agree that the Air Force One thing initially made Trump look like a chump. It looked like Boeing just agreed to the original price and then made up a higher price to placate Trump. But then in 2022 Boeing CEO said that he regrets making the deal. A quick google search turns up:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmith/2022/04/27/boeing-ceo-regrets-deal-with-trump-for-new-air-force-one-jets-that-will-cost-company-1-billion/
Along with various other articles.
"Boeing has lost $660 million developing two Air Force One 747 jets following a “very unique” 2018 deal with then President Donald Trump that placed liability for cost changes on the company rather than on taxpayers, CEO Dave Calhoun reportedly told investors Wednesday."
"Calhoun remarked that Boeing “probably should not have taken” the fixed-price $3.9 billion contract, which was revised to make the company responsible for cost changes after Trump insisted that the original arrangement was too pricey."
"The project’s spiraling expenses were driven by rising supplier costs, rising technical costs and scheduling difficulties, the company said in its quarterly report Wednesday."
"The Air Force One deal was personally negotiated with Trump by then Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, who was removed from the company in 2019 after being accused of mismanaging the company’s response to two deadly 737 MAX plane crashes."
Because so many defense contractors are so bad at what they do, if they can't pass on their mistakes and inefficiencies to the government they lose money. So if you want to see Boeing lose money, then Trump actually did something right.