I didn't notice this when it was published, but I see that polling from the New York Times confirms the YouGov results I mentioned yesterday. Donald Trump's conviction on felony charges has moved voters only slightly:
The Times interviewed some of the folks who were previously Trumpish or undecided. Here are their complaints about Biden:
Jack: Earlier this year, he said he considered himself a Trump voter primarily because of his anger over Mr. Biden’s economic policies.
Eric: Mr. Tabor said he had turned to Mr. Trump after Mr. Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan was rejected by the Supreme Court, and Mr. Tabor was left with the feeling that the president was getting little done.
Jamie: She blamed him for not saving abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Carla: She watched Mr. Biden perform the job as president and could not envision voting for him again. “Sometimes Biden says things without thinking,” she said.
This is all crazy. The economy is great under Biden. Biden has gotten a ton of things done. It makes no sense to blame him for a conservative Supreme Court that Trump appointed. As for saying things without thinking, has Carla ever listened to Trump?
But crazy or not, this is how a lot of people think. You just have to figure out a way of getting through to them.
It's how some people think. The political media love to push such people to the front as if they represent the whole, as if they are not poorly informed, as if they are somehow virtuous because they cannot make up their minds between an experienced centrist and a corrupt lunatic who tried to overthrow the government.
They only find and promote people like this who are negative about Democrats. They did this all through 2016, constantly publishing interviews with people giving various reason why they disliked Hillary Clinton.
Not to mention 2008 when they published all those stories about how it would be more fun to have a beer with W than with Al Gore.
This just is another example, as far as I'm concerned, for why the Presidency is such a bad idea.
The economy is great under Biden. Biden has gotten a ton of things done. It makes no sense to blame him for a conservative Supreme Court that Trump appointed. As for saying things without thinking, has Carla ever listened to Trump?
The problem is something like, they've heard all these things but don't connect them up with anything but 'politics', and that whoever is in the White House must be responsible and that whoever is out of the White House is against that.
It mostly comes down to the problem that Democrats will not run against Republicans but try to run on issues, which no one cares about, because anyone in public office is necessarily the issue and if you're running against them you're running to be the issue.
You have to be able to say right out I'm a better person than that idiot, or that idiot is a worse person than I am, and you have to stick with that. That will always be your whole message and Democrats just don't want to do that.
this, but also, everything is the fault of the guy in charge, for better or for worse. the buck stops with Biden. Democrats want to whine about it, rather than accept and deal.
But that of course is bullshit, see my comment above. It is a lot of the problem that people don't understand how government works. They think they are electing a God-King and that leads to unrealistic expectations. And presidential systems have a definite tendency to end up either in Civil War or in Dictatorships. They are a bad idea. After WW2 when the US was setting up democratic governments in defeated countries, it notably didn't copy its own system.
The buck does in fact stop with Biden. Can you truthfully say that Biden is doing a good job at persuasion?
This is actually an optimistic assessment, as it suggests ways that Biden could improve his campaign. But if he just whines and claims that there is no need to change anything he is doing, then I fear the worst.
Who are you going to choose: the great salesman who was an historically bad president, or the mediocre salesman who is a pretty good president?
Misses the point completely, I will choose Biden. That will make little difference if Americans choose Trump, as is looking increasingly likely.
The race is even and will be with slight adjustments either way until the end. Just accept it.
Hmm, three out of four of those people you quote I reckon as never, ever voting for Trump.
Does someone mad about abortion rights being rolled back vote for Trump? I don't think so. Likewise student loans, etc.
Yeah, they have their bones to pick. Maybe they will stay home, but maybe, when the actual stakes become salient, they will decide that voting against Trump is worth spending the effort on.
"Does someone mad about abortion rights being rolled back vote for Trump? I don't think so."
Yah, that's why I'm feeling optimistic this time around. Every election since Dobbs has seen Ds outperform the polls. Evidently the polls aren't accounting for all the millions of seriously pissed-off women.
But crazy or not, this is how a lot of people think. You just have to figure out a way of getting through to them.
I think that the problem is that, when an event like the conviction happens, Democrats tend to sit back and let the 'facts speak for themselves'. Republicans on the other hand, just treat the event as ongoing and something they can spin in their favor. Lying and deception, amplified by both-sides media, is very much part of their game plan.
The tactic of "when they go low, we go high" is probably not a good political strategy, especially if the voices which advocate going high are not nearly as relentless as Republican lying.
The economy is doing very well. I can't remember the last time I heard Biden say this, let alone say it relentlessly.
In a recent Salon article, Brian Karem makes the valid point that "Trump is an expert at selling an appearance and Biden can’t sell reality"
https://www.salon.com/2024/05/16/biden-vs-debate-a-battle-between-appearance-and-reality/
Read the article you posted. This phrase was repeated often:
"Biden walked away from questions."
Another words he's as pissed off as the New York Times leaders that Biden doesn't talk to the press unless he wants to. He should thank God he wasn't working in Calvin Coolidge's White House.
Reagan walked away from questions too quite a bit, something he should know because he worked that White House too. Didn't seem to bother anyone I guess (outside Sam Donaldson).
Curious to know who he thinks is arrogant and incompetent in the Administration.
And before anyone mentions Jimmy Carter again, Carter faced 18 percent inflation, 21 percent interest rates set by his own Fed Chairman, eight percent unemployment and an international hostage crisis plus a serious primary challenge. The amazing thing about that election was that it was actually close after Labor Day until the final week. I think Carter would have killed for a Misery Index around seven percent, don't you?
I get so tired of these armchair analysts, and I don't care if they're journalists or not, talking about perception/reality and this superficial bullshit. If people can buy Reagan's blue smoke and mirrors act, they'll buy Trump's. I get that. So if I'm a journalist knowing this, I basically lay it on the line to my readers instead wasting my time attacking someone who's actually done good things for what he has or hasn't done with his campaign. And I write basically this: It's up to you Mr. and Mrs. America: You want fantasy, vote Trump. You want reality, vote Biden. Reality right now isn't great but it's okay and can get better and it's certainly a lot better than four years ago when you rejected that fantasy for reasons you've seen for forgotten about. You've voted fantasy before, and it's burned you. So make up your minds because you know what it is you're voting for. No one needs to explain it to you. And if you choose fantasy again for whatever reason, I won't feel the least bit sorry for you when the consequences start rolling in because by then I have will cease to care.
The race is even and will be with slight adjustments either way until the end. Just accept it.
Well, of course, if Trump wins, I will have to suck it up. But that hasn't happened yet, and I choose not to be as fatalistic as you. I want to win. And Biden could be handling this election thingy better.
Just wanted to note that "when they go low, we go high" is not necessarily the antithesis of pushing your message out there. Your message can be a very positive one, which you push constantly.
Repetition legitimizes. Repetition legitimizes. Repetition legitimizes.
Yes.
In 2016 I remember someone telling they weren't happy about Obama or Clinton because of all the drones under Obama, and weren't sure who to vote for. I think they did end up voting for Clinton, but, once again, the harping of the media made it seem like the Dem was going to be worse on an issue, when reality was the exact opposite.
Many years ago I saw a program on British television about a hypnotist who did an event in a large auditorium, maybe a couple thousand seats that were mostly full.
So he did a mass hypnosis thing where he told the audience that all they would remember about the show is that they had a great time, and it was of the best performances they'd ever seen. And a bunch of other things; he had half an hour or so to fill.
And then after the show let they interviewed some people leaving. And I'm sure they edited it to carry the story line, but while there were people who were unaffected, there were also people who said they had a great time, and it was one of the best performances they'd ever seen.
What did you like best about it? "I really don't know. I guess I liked all of it."
Was there music? Visual effects? "I ... don't really remember. I just remember it was such a good time."
I thought they'd probably taken an awful lot of editorial liberties with the program ... but seeing how some of the MAGA people accept FoxNews "reality" without any thought to it, maybe not.
What makes you think they didn't take a lot of editorial liberties when showing how some of the MAGA people accept FoxNews "reality" without any thought?
"I loved it. It was much better than 'Cats'. I will see it again and again."
They need an excuse for being jackasses and crazy old man Biden fits the bill. This is where democrats need to change. You cannot help these people. It's pointless to try. All these policies and "things" getting done are just noise none of them notice or care about. You could give them a massive tax cut and hand them a bunch of money and they still wouldn't vote for democrats. It does not have an effect. So why bother?
Churchill was supposed to have said but the International Churchill Society found no attribution: “The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."
Actual quote:
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
H. L. Mencken
Basic civics education is a problem.
Dr. Phil has called on President Biden to dismiss former president and convicted felon Trump's election interference conviction. Dr. Phil knows, probably, that Biden has no authority to do so, but he also knows that his audience has no idea that the suggestion is preposterous.
The electorate remains incapable of understanding that the end of Roe was caused by Trump's Supreme Court appointments.
(Sigh...) Half of the people in this country are less intelligent than the other half. This will always be true. But - this being America and all - a lot of those people are truly dumb. One small example: Look at how many homeopathic products are on the shelves at your local supermarket or drug store. (Homeopathic products may contain not a single molecule of the original substance. Link: https://bit.ly/4aX1SRA) Frank Luntz understood this and, while not saying it out loud, made a good living by marketing the Republican platform to morons. So... like it or not, Dems have to learn how to better make their case to morons. Because though they be feeble in mind, they are many in number. And they vote.
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a way to make a case to these latter-day morons without reminding them they are morons. They are a touchy lot.
America will get the leaders it deserves. If voters are too stupid to value what Biden has done, seeing it all torn asunder should please them greatly. Low of other countries have flushed their futures down the toilet, and America is not immune to this. Frankly, with all the biases of the Senate and Electoral College, it’s shocking we made it as long as we did.
Millions of lower-income white people vote for Trump because he supports the ascendancy of their White Christian tribe. They have a real fear of losing their cultural dominance. In fact they have been losing it, up to recent Supreme Court decisions. But it is no longer culturally permissible to admit to racism, save in insider groups where the racism is often explicit. So if they are asked why they vote for Trump or Republicans in general, they give excuses which are often nonsensical.
The pretended opinions of MAGAs about the economy, for example, seem to be contagious so that uncommitted voters feel that they have to go along. Or maybe a lot of them don't pay attention to actual news or data, and get their information and views by word of mouth.
Media pundits and reporters insist on describing Trump and other national leaders who appeal to lower-income voters as "populists", but the appear is not economic, it is tribal, based on race or religion, and in the US on both.
Here is a bit of data to support your statements. In 2019, John Dean and Bob Altemeyer commissioned a poll for their book Authoritarian Nightmare, and looked at how well support for Trump correlated with various things. A correlation of 1.0 is the maximum possible. So what correlated with support for Trump?
.859 identifies as Republican
This is unsurprising because Trump was the head of the Republican Party, so anyone with strong feelings about Trump likely switched party identification to make it match their views on Trump.
.812 prejudice score
This is a 24 item prejudice scale. It includes some items that tap into anti-semitism. It’s a better predictor of support for Trump than anything else they looked at except self-identification as a Republican.
.737 RWA scale
This is a 20 item scale that measures the tendency to follow authoritarian leaders. I was expecting this to be high because Trump is an authoritarian leader and it’s hard to see how anyone who wasn’t looking for an authoritarian leader would think Trump was competent to lead anyone, but prejudice beat it.
.660 benefitted from recent economic improvement
So “It’s the economy, stupid!” isn’t totally dead. (This survey was done in 2019, before COVID crashed the economy.) On the other hand, the correllation between this item and the prejudice score is .554, which suggests you are correct that for some of these people, their claim that their economic situation has improved under Trump is an excuse for voting for Trump, not their reason for voting for Trump.
.594 religious fundamentalism
Another thing we might expect to correlate with support for Trump, and it does, but prejudice is more important.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-positivity/202009/john-deans-authoritarian-nightmare
https://cdn2.mhpbooks.com/2020/08/Authoritarian-Nightmare_Appendices.pdf
Again, these are all registered voters, not likely voters. And apparently half of them are idiots.
A two percent change in poll margins is not tiny.
Shift recent presidential election polls (as of May 30th) by two percent towards Biden, and he takes the lead nationally. It's also enough to put him ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, while leaving him less than a half-a-percent deficit in Pennsylvania. (Judging from 538's charting.) This conviction is not the last nail in Trump's coffin, but it can help.
Exactly. We're taking about a couple hundred thousand in key districts. At the end of the day the trial cost the GOP a massive amount of money they needed and kept Trump mostly distracted and unable to focus on campaigning. it may have kept his name in the news but it was next to felon, felony, and porn star.
I think these people aren't explaining their votes; they're concocting cover stories. They're trying to find some way to disappear back into the mass of humanity.
They aren't carefully considering what is best for the country but considering how to avoid the negative attention of angry people they are in some relationship with, maybe as neighbors, coworkers, or kin. The stupider the story the less threatening they are to jumpy, angry conservatives. To sound well-informed or thoughtful is to sound like the enemy.
These aren't explanations. They are disguises. Camouflage.
I had to turn off NPR the other morning when they started interviewing a bunch of these ignorant idiots who can’t decide who to vote for. Don’t NPR reporters know it’s their job to listen to these fools so I don’t have to?