Kevin Drum

Here's the Vienna Opera House at night just as a performance is starting to let out. I believe this was the setting for a big part of one of the Mission Impossible movies.

The FBI reported yesterday that cryptocurrency fraud in the US amounted to $5.6 billion in 2023. This is a 45% increase since 2022.¹ Nearly 40% of the fraud was perpetrated on people age 60 and over.

This all makes the United States the crypto fraud capital of the world by a very wide margin. Here are the country stats for the top losers:

Even after taking population into account, the US reported fraud losses more than 7x higher than the next biggest loser. When you figure that the positive value of crypto is approximately zero, this means the US sustains a net consumer welfare of -$5.6 billion just for allowing crypto to exist. Despite this, crypto stans continue to push for even looser regulation of what is, essentially, just a criminal enterprise.

Welcome to the free market.

¹By my calculations it's a 36% increase. But what's nine percentage points between friends?

The government's fiscal year ends on September 30, which means FY25 begins on October 1. That's three weeks away.

Naturally we need a federal budget in place by then, but that's a laughable impossibility with Republicans in charge of the House. The best we can hope for is a continuing resolution to keep the lights on for six months while we wrangle over an actual budget.

Of course—did I mention that Republicans control the House?—there's a catch: Speaker Mike Johnson insists he won't pass even a CR unless Democrats agree to pass the SAVE Act along with it. This is a "statement" piece of legislation that would require proof of citizenship before you can register to vote.

The SAVE Act probably wouldn't actually affect voter registration much, but what a pain in the ass. I, of course, would just show my passport and be on my way. But lots of people don't have passports. Nor do they have an official, stamped birth certificate, so they'll have to track one down. And for what?

The argument is simple. Democrats say there's virtually no noncitizen registration, so why bother fixing a problem that doesn't exist? Republicans say: maybe so, but what's the harm of requiring proof of citizenship?

Meanwhile, I'd like to remind both sides that if they're actually serious there's an easy solution: free national ID cards. You'd have to show your ID to register, so Republicans get what they want. However, acquiring ID is free and easy, so Democrats get what they want.

Outside of the UK and its former colonies, virtually every country in the world offers free identity cards to its residents. Some are compulsory and some aren't, but everybody gets one regardless because they're really convenient. The US already has such a card (the passport card), so that part is done. All that's left is to make it free and urge everybody to get one. What's not to like?

In addition to new poverty figures, the Census Bureau also released new annual income numbers today. Real household income was up 4.0% in 2023:

Household income was up for all races and all income groups. It increased the most for the poorest 10% of workers.

Note that this is "money income" as defined by the Census Bureau. It doesn't include either taxes or government benefits.

We got new poverty figures today from the Census Bureau, and the news was mixed:

Using the old, official measure, the poverty rate was down 0.4 percentage points, dropping from 11.5% to 11.1%.

However, using the shiny new SPM, the poverty rate was up 0.5 percentage points, rising from 12.4% to 12.9%.

The SPM is generally considered a more accurate gauge because it accounts for both welfare benefits and taxes. Because of that, it fell sharply during the pandemic thanks to generous benefits in the various rescue packages. As those benefits disappeared, poverty went back up to its old, pre-pandemic rate. Unsurprisingly, this mainly hit non-white workers:

Overall, the main takeaway from today's report is that poverty didn't change very much in 2023 for white people but went up significantly for everyone else.

TIL that members of Congress are allowed to use their franking privilege to buy TV ads:

This is nothing new: Congress extended the franking privilege from mail to TV in 1972.¹ It's become a little more common lately because no one sends out mail anymore; they just blast out newsletters via email. This means they have more money available, and some members use it on TV spots.

Unlike mail, however, TV ads have to be paid for, and the money comes out of each member's office budget. This means there will never be very much of it and it will never be a big deal. Still, I had no idea this was a thing. Now I do.

¹I think? It's remarkably hard to pin down when Congress first allowed the frank to be used for broadcast communications.

Today brings good news and bad news. The good news is that Morning Consult polling shows Kamala Harris behind in only one battleground state. The bad news is that she's lost ground from two weeks ago:

This is one tight race, folks. Even Florida is within two points (49-47 in favor of Trump).

This goes into the file of sentences you never expected to see:

The Springfield Police Division said Monday morning they have received no reports related to pets being stolen and eaten.

If you have no idea what this is all about, count your blessings. It means you're a normal person who doesn't chase right-wing memes down rabbit holes. Naturally I'm now going to ruin this for you.

The Springfield in question is Springfield, Ohio, about 15 miles from Dayton. Something like 15,000 Haitian refugees have resettled there recently, and a year ago one of them ran into a school bus and killed an 11-year-old student. J.D. Vance made hay with this and everything spiraled from there. A few days ago someone in a Springfield Facebook group claimed that Haitians were catching and butchering local ducks and cats. America 2100, an anti-immigrant organization, followed up with a Twitter thread about the horrors of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, which was then picked up by Benny Johnson, Breitbart, Elon Musk, the GOP, and a vast host of others. Within a couple of days it had all gone viral.

Aside from the brutal racism involved in all this, it's ironic for two reasons. First, until recently Springfield was a dying town. Ten years ago it began a program to attract new business and it was stunningly successful: before long it had produced more jobs than the town could fill. According to the New York Times, "Many young, working-age people had descended into addiction. Others shunned entry-level, rote work altogether, employers said."

The Haitian community heard about this and rescued Springfield. They migrated from other states and filled the jobs, doing them so well that more and more businesses set up shop. By all accounts, the Haitian settlers were hard working, law abiding, and healthy. “It was incredible to witness the transformation of our community,” said Horton Hobbs, vice president of economic development for the Greater Springfield Partnership, which executed the plan.

The second point of irony is that this has nothing to do with either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Most of the Haitians were already in the country thanks to the Cuban Haitian Entrant Program of 1980. They moved to Springfield because they learned that it had lots of good jobs. "Haitians who heard that the Springfield area boasted well-paying, blue-collar jobs and a low cost of living poured in, and employers were eager to hire and train the new work force."

Now, there's no question that the influx of refugees over the past five years has taken a toll. Clinics and schools have been overwhelmed, and it's taken a while to adjust. Housing prices have gone up. Crime spiked in 2021, but that appears to be mostly a statistical artifact due to changes in how aggravated assault was defined.

So who's behind the viral meme about the immigrant horrors of Springfield? Good question. Semafor has reported on a secretive group being paid considerable sums to create right wing social media memes. Russia paid $10 million to create Tenet Media, a fake news outlet that released thousands of right wing videos. The FBI recently seized 32 websites that were part of a Russian disinformation program called Doppelganger, which produced realistic looking fake news sites as part of its “Good Old USA Project.”

So who knows? The Springfield meme could be one of those or it could be some other freelance group. In any case, there's very little about it that's truthful. The Haitians are in Springfield essentially because they were invited. Most of them had nothing to do with Joe Biden's Haitian parole program. Real-life crime doesn't appear to be up much. The Haitian immigrants are highly valued by local employers. It is true that the influx has strained public services, but even that is being steadily addressed.

But it doesn't matter, does it? Thousands of people have seen the viral Springfield stuff. Maybe millions. Conversely, probably a few hundred will see this post. The damage is done.

This is a picture of Highway 177 looking north on a day with 120° temperatures. It may be only the edge of the Mojave Desert, but it's still pretty hot.

I see that Kamala Harris now has an extensive issues page on her website. People have been whining about its absence forever, and now that it's here I predict that about 17 people will bother reading it.

My favorite is this one:

Politically, I'm sure this is a winner. Logically, not so much. It is, unfortunately, all but impossible that we'll ever seriously tackle climate without some kind of carbon tax or cap-and-trade. Even the solar revolution won't be enough to do it on its own.