Here's another chart from the American Family Survey. This one is bonkers:
Take a look at the right-hand panel: it shows that in 2020 Democrats were happier than Republicans about the helpfulness of state and local government—which is no surprise since Democrats are generally more positive about government programs than Republicans. In 2021, everyone was even happier about state and local government, but the difference between partisans remained about the same.
Now take a look at the left-hand panel. When Donald Trump was president, Republicans were way more positive about the helpfulness of the federal government compared to Democrats. But in 2021, when Joe Biden was president, Republican views plummeted and Democratic views skyrocketed even though a neutral observer would say that very little had changed.
This is nuts. On a question of a fairly concrete nature, the partisan split went from net +28 to net -26. But only for the federal government. The partisan split for state and local governments, which didn't have Donald Trump or Joe Biden to influence things, barely budged.
But this doesn't mean that views of state government aren't partisan. Quite the contrary. States mostly have governments that reflect the populace: Republicans have Republican governments and Democrats have Democratic governments. So it makes sense that partisans on both sides would register satisfaction with how helpful their state government was.
More generally, this is a dramatic illustration of a general point: never take seriously an issue poll that just shows an overall number. When you break it down, you'll always find a huge partisan split, and that's what really matters. In today's America, partisanship rules everything.
"Republican views plummeted and Democratic views skyrocketed even though a neutral observer would say that very little had changed."
I mean, maybe. Is there a metric you're basing this "very little changed" assertion on. On some platonically pure scale, you could probably say not much EVER changes year to year. For example, GDP and Federal budgets change maybe a few % in a major year of tumult. But since changes are pretty much always on the margins, of course relatively small changes on headline issues will generate a big change in polling results on a question like this. And in a year dominated by a global pandemic that killed 600+ thousand people, switching from a federal government led by a guy telling people to drink clorox and shine UV light up their asses to a president who advocates for and facilitates highly effective vaccinations is gonna wildly drive up non-crazy people support for the federal government's helpfulness. It's not (at least on the democratic side) "batshit crazy partisanship", it's completely sensible belief in science and sane governance, embodied in Trump vs Biden.
The actual government institutions involved in the pandemic did not change much. Fauci and the health bureaucracy were actually in control. Even Trump supported vaccine development. Of course Trump tried to discredit Fauci personally, probably for egotistical reasons, and pushed crackpot solutions, but did not affect the institutional response much. The US did not do worse than many other countries which did not have a Trump as President. The institutions in most places did not do as well as they could have. Democrats are justified in relief that Trump is gone, but the question was about institutions, not personalities.
The point is that both sides are not responding to the actual question, they are expressing personal or partisan opinions - which is what is important to them (don't we all like to express opinions?). This is a general phenomenon in polls.
Fauci is full of shit though. You can tell he is pushing Moderna and undercut the JJ one in the spring, which set back vaccination efforts. A business man first Fauci is. Part of his collision with Trump was they had the same mindset.
LOL. You never fail to amuse....
ShooterOfVodka/SpadesOfGrey is an amuse douche.
are you a Russian troll? Or just dumb?
I've wondered the same and come to conclusion the answer is probably "just dumb". i think this site and user comment board is just too obscure for someone to pay to troll it. and spades (probably shooter from days of yore) seems way too engaged and dedicated to their idiotic comments to be a paid troll.
i agree with all that and was trying to make clear that, yeah, in a purely objective analysis the change in democrats view on "it the government helpful" isn't logical. but it's also not "batshit crazy". it's just an artifact of how normal, sane people respond to political polling along in a particularly chaotic time with a transition in presidents from insane criminal to competent leader.
Lol, like lockdown philosophy was "belief in science". Another term libtard's flout around with lame understanding how wrong they were on the science. Wait until Gavin Newsom campaigns against California's state health department next year.
The world failed and created a boogeyman. When in fact, it was a garden variety Coronavirus outbreak.
Lol, you are * always * full of shit.
I think KD's point was that while the overall "Helpfulness of Institutions" number for the Federal government overall had not changed a lot, when you look at the internals, Rs went down a lot, while Ds went up a lot. The term "neutral observer" caused some confusion, I think. The point he was making was "objectively the overall number didn't change much, but inside the death match of opposition continued".
I still remember the whiplash economic poll numbers after Trump was elected and after he lost. It still shocks me how well the Right has managed the whole Perception v Reality thing.
"...hough a neutral observer would say that very little had changed." -- KD
Something huge had changed -- Donald Trump was no longer president. That had a huge psychological impact on every Democrat I know.
Kevin, you keep missing the forest for the trees. Increasingly, the obvious escapes your notice.
What did people who vote for Republicans think the Federal government was being helpful with in 2020, validating their sadism?
Developing a vaccine in record time?
I think more likely that the Feds avenged the death of patriot Aaron Danielson by killing leftist goalposts Michael Reinohl.
Personally, I can't wait till the GQP State Parties rebrand the Lincoln Day Dinner as the Aaron Danielson-Ashli Babbit Memorial.
*golpista, NOT goalposts
I like your uncorrected version better.
Silly. Democrats and republicans both love the US military, veterans benefits, and war generally. More dumb polls.
I can’t believe some pundit wrote this… worried that Biden is being punished in polls because of the recent surge, their solution is:
“This ruthlessness must be met with bold, uncompromising action to save life rather than end it. A minority of Republicans insist they absolutely will not choose to get the vaccine? Fine. Force them to do it.”
https://theweek.com/joe-biden/1005889/mandatory-vaccination-is-joe-bidens-only-political-hope
That’s… nuts. How about we all have a party for every dead Republican. Hoping Allen West is next!
Biden's disapproval isn't that bad. Nobody cares right about it. The lack of precipitation is pretty glaring.
Lets also note raw D/R vaccinated are about the same. His post is irrelevant. When Covid is deemed no longer a pandemic next year, I will laugh at this stupid article.
Republican approval did not " plummet ". It went down from 55% to 44%, only 11 points. Given that the administration changed from republican to democratic, that limited decline is actually surprisingly small. It is the huge increase in democratic approoval from 27 to 70 % that accounts for around 80% of the partisan swing kevin is bemoaning.
Based on Kevin's reasoning that not much has changed in reality, this data would support blaming democrats almost entirely for the too partisan reaction.
Of course, some here might try an alternative explanation that Biden really did improve things and some Republicans realized that and became more positive offsetting some of those who went the other way. But I would guess that is bs.
My guess here as the 44% republican approval seems way too high for any current poll, is that the 2021 numbers come from earlier in the year where there was some " honeymoon " influence.
So maybe comparing 2020 to 2021 is not quite right. Overall numbers will be somewhat inflated for all. So my guess is , in reality, Republicans have just as much of partisan switch as democrats, or at least close, but that is hidden by timing.
Note what is interesting is that independents were just a bit higher than democrats last year and are just a bit higher than Republicans in 2021. They swing to always agreeing more with the out party. They don't trust either side.
RT:
> But I would guess …My guess here … So my guess is
Maybe you should change your handle to JustGuessing
Let's note you never support your assertions.
Since when does the GOP love veterans benefits? The GOP only loves the military when there's a war to fight, or some flag waving to do at their campaign rally.
+1 purple heart Band-Aid
"even though a neutral observer would say that very little had changed."
What. The actual. Fuck.
First incompentent destructive political appointees where in large measure gone. Second coordination between parts of the government, each other AND the states improved. Third even before the inauguration just the knowledge Trump lost emboldened competent civil servants to fight back against Trumpian fuckery.
Is it perfect? No. Things would definitely be better if I was in charge. But the government at the federal level is both trying and much more able.
THAT
Let’s see, we went from having a President whose top priorities were golf, cashing in and screwing over everyone who ever slighted him, to a President whose top priorities are beating a deadly pandemic and passing broad progressive legislation. Yeah, nothing to see here …
I think this poll could be a bit tricky to interpret.
First the "institution" is the federal government. It's not the institutions of the federal government.
Second we don't know how the percentages changed.
In fact both party fed 'helpful' shares almost exactly flipped!
If every individual in the country had changed their opinion this is the result you get! 100 - 55 = 45 (real result 44). 100 - 27 = 73 (real result 70).
It's kind of a strange one.
Also the question was specifically about 'helpful to your family', which is different than helpful in general.
Another thing from looking at the report. That republican drop in federal gov helpfulness 2020 vs 2021 is *the only drop*.
Every other line slopes up.
2021 was just better.
Vaccines, schools, reopening.
Things got better, people rated things better... except Republicans on the federal government.
Note: the poll was pre-delta. Early summer. After wide availability of vaccine.
Another way to look at those federal helpfullness numbers across the three groups.
2020 to 2021 independents +14. D +43. R -11.
43 is 29 higher than 14. -11 is 25 lower than 14.
Ds aren't actually all that much more different from Is than Rs.
And Ds are also feeling more better about their state government than Rs or Is.
However I think "independents" is a bit of a fake thing, and it's most of then are actually voters for one party or the other who like to pretend they aren't.
So I'm not sure i buy my own user of them as a benchmark.
How can you average together all the states and expect to see anything?
And the federal government had gotten screwy. Heck, the former guy defunded the passport offices for whatever reason! Oh, right, to screw with poor people trying to escape nasty id requirements.
'When Donald Trump was president, Republicans were way more positive about the helpfulness of the federal government compared to Democrats. But in 2021, when Joe Biden was president, Republican views plummeted and Democratic views skyrocketed even though a neutral observer would say that very little had changed.'
You mean other than the federal government actually serving the Public, addressing actual crises instead of manufactured ones, adhering to federal laws and the Constitution, and not deliberately sabotaging vital institutions that our nation depends upon?
I'd like to meet this "neutral observer" of yours, Kevin....
+1
The poll question was not "how do you like the President", it was how helpful governments have been. Wasn't the CARES act ($2.2T) passed by a bipartisan Congress and signed by Trump? Didn't Trump promote development of the vaccines? Did the Fed suddenly change course when Biden was inaugurated? There is just no evidence for a night/day change in the helpfulness of the federal government to actual poll respondents, despite how bad the Trump administration was. It is really obvious that many people on both sides are not really answering the question, and to some extent are expressing their own partisan preferences. Although Kevin does not give the results for previous administration changes (they may not exist) there is other evidence that partisan preferences have increased greatly, and not just on the right (although that has reached the point of insanity).
The poll (Fig 7) also shows a large overall increase in the perceived helpfulness of all institutions (even employers, a tiny bit). This is probably at least partly an effect of increased optimism.