Both core and headline PCE inflation were down in March:
Headline PCE was way down in March, and even on a trendline basis was only barely above 2%. Core inflation was more stubborn, coming down to only 3.4% and remaining around 4% on a trendline basis.
(On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation was 4.2% and core inflation was 4.6%.)
Overall, this is great news, and considerably different from my calculations yesterday. Why? Because I forgot that all the recent figures are revised each month. I was using the February indexes, which were revised in March and produced different results. So much for beating the BEA's release schedule.
As usual, the PCE parallels the CPI at a somewhat lower level:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=12W6o
so no new information here - the data used for both are for March. Anyway the situation has not changed from when the CPI was first released on the 12th. New information (April data) will come on May 10 with the CPI release.
so no new information here
There is, outside of the report.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/business/wage-inflation-march.html
Powell is losing his fig leaf. He is going to have to stop pretending this is about inflation and that his goal is to throw people out of work in order to reduce worker bargaining power so they will be forced to settle for less at a time of record corporate profits.
And increase discontent towards incumbents...
So Powell, who was initially appointed to the Fed by Obama, and reappointed to Chair by Biden, has say over the Fed and the rest of the board (half of whom are Democrats) are just rubber stamps?
(¬‿¬)
This is actually terrible news. An appropriate target for inflation is 3%-4%. The US is already at target inflation, but the recent fed interest rate increases will push inflation to 1%-1.5% by 2023 Q3 / 2024.
Inflation keeps falling but wages and compensation are not.
The Feds concern has always been the latter. As long as wage growth stays strong, the Fed will keep trying to slow wage growth.
There are lots of reasons why wage growth has struggled over the last few decades, but the Fed has long been a key problem.
People really don't like paying $8 for a carton of eggs, or $3.50 for a gallon of gas, but try being laid off for six months. That *really* sucks, especially if you have a family to support, or are over 50 and have to figure out how to jumpstart a new career.