I think I still remember how to do this. Here is PCE inflation in January:
Not good. In more conventional year-over-year terms, headline PCE came in at 2.5%. Core PCE was 2.6%.
9 thoughts on “PCE inflation spiked in January”
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Cats, charts, and politics
When not talking about Muskrump's systematic dismantling of America, every Democratic pol in front of a camera needs to be talking about "Trumpflation". Make it a household word for the next two years.
In fact, it may even be more useful than focusing on all the DOGE bullshit. Most people have no clue how the federal bureaucracy works anyway, so, say, blowing up the NOAA or the SSA is still an abstraction to the average low-information voter. They wont notice until something they care about is fucked up, but then it will be too late. But they'll notice the price of eggs or the fact that some construction material they need now costs twice as much as it did back in the halcyon days under Biden.
They should time it to coincide with any new tariffs. Make him explain himself. Put him on the defensive. He doesn't do well under pressure.
The stock market has taken this as a nothing burger so far today, though perhaps the drop off this week priced in this already.
Perhaps. But the market is basically flat over the past 2 months, halting the growth experienced over the previous year (and most of that is due to a decline in the past few weeks as Trumponomics has become more and more apparent). Could be nothing, but could also be the (entirely logical) reaction of the market to an erratic WH weirdo doing things like imposing tariffs, un-imposing tariffs, threatening to re-impose tariffs, and promising future tariffs that may or may not stick, with no clear rhyme or reason to it.*
Businesses can plan and invest and envision growth if the basic rules of the road are knowable; if they aren't, the smart money move is to just sit on your money, which means dim growth prospects in the aggregate. We might be starting to see that.
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"Canadian imports threaten US businesses! So we'll tax them, unless Canada agrees to do something-something fentanyl, in which case I guess Canadian imports are no longer threatening to US businesses! Also: we're pivoting away from trade with the $20 trillion EU economy, and towards the lucrative prospects of trade with the 10x smaller Russian economy!"
Sometimes the stock market over-reacts to monthly data. Sometimes they take it in stride. There's no rhyme or reason to it. Monthly blips like this are common. It is a nothing burger...so far. If next month's numbers are similar, that's an entirely different story.
It's a herd effect. once someone panics a bunch will follow in case the first person knows something they don't.
Yes, and like with the next chart there was a similar bump last January which went away. Again, nothing of Trump's trashing the federal government and tariffs have hit yet.
…….”Day 1”…….
Trump was asked in that press conference at the British PM to explain his tariffs…
… DJT went onto claim America has been treated unfairly and the position that consumers actually are the ones who pay for tariffs was nothing more than a myth.