Enough of this. Just stop:
The bill’s success shows how the politics of climate change have shifted profoundly since scientists began warning about global warming
On Friday, a dozen years after a sprawling climate bill passed the House but failed to move ahead in the Senate, Democrats successfully muscled the United States’ most ambitious climate change proposal ever past Congress, sending it to President Biden for his signature.
The bill’s success shows how the politics of climate change have shifted profoundly since scientists began warning about how human-caused emissions would warm the planet.
I've read other pieces about how, for example, environmental groups kept pushing and pushing and pushing, and that's why the bill passed. Or about the brilliance of Chuck Schumer's leadership. Or AOC and the squad mesmerizing America into supporting it. But it's all malarkey, as our president might say.
Oh, there were political differences between the previous climate bill in 2010 and now. The 2022 bill had to be weaker. It got fewer votes in the Senate. Republicans were unanimously opposed to the 2022 bill instead of just 98% against it. And Democrats had to bribe the fossil fuel industry to keep its mouth shut. The entire political climate has gotten worse since 2010.
But these are all trifles. The 2022 climate bill passed for one reason: Joe Manchin decided he was in favor of it. That's it. That was the difference between success and failure.
Not hurricanes or droughts or wildfires or floods. Not the Arctic melting faster than we thought. Not environmental groups suddenly pulling their heads out of their asses. And certainly not public opinion:
So let's stop with the tik-toks and thumbsuckers. Nothing much has changed politically. Nothing has changed in public opinion. Facts on the ground have so far not made a dent. Environmental groups have not suddenly become brilliant marketers.
If Joe Manchin had decided he wanted to spend $400 billion on the child tax credit, that's what would have passed. Instead he decided to support climate change. If you really want to write the story of how the 2022 climate bill passed, you need to figure out why Manchin changed his mind over the past dozen years. That's it.
But even your narrative is definitely evidence in favor of "keep at it". You'll find the window of opportunity eventually.
Quite likely the least opaque part of this whole thing, even with knowing that it was Manchin that worked out the details on the bribe. My guess is he was tired of the negative attention he was getting so decided to hammer it out with the people that have him on speed dial. Details we likely will never know.
On the decent chance people may not have heard, the Super Fund is back to be funded by actual polluters instead of the public, which is huge in it's own right.
I Googled the 2010 bill some and have not found any writers blaming Manchin exclusively. He didn't have the status then that he has had since 2010. The opposition then was more complex than one man blocking things and the use of reconciliation was not the same. This time there were apparently 49 Senators in favor all along. Although the media's idea that there has been some huge change in public opinion is a fantasy, the politics are different - there is more unity on the Democratic side.
But the idea that everything has been in Joe Manchin's hands since the 2010 election is basically correct (except when it's been in Sinema's hands). The media had big ideas about what could be done at the start of the administration and have tended to blame Biden or "Democrats" or the Squad for not getting things done, and Kevin himself has often gone along with this. Biden and Democrats have been fairly unified but they can't do anything without Manchin's vote. The leaders stuck with negotiations with Biden and did finally do something.
"negotiatons with Manchin"
True--too many process write ups, too many it's not perfect write ups--not enough of what it does and how we can build on it.
Climate change deniers still do not see that the wild fires and droughts are due to the changes we've caused to the CO2 in atmosphere. Same for extreme storms. At least the "rolling coal" fad seems to have faded....
Just spitballing here, but there's an outside chance what changed Mansion's mind was 12 more years of hurricanes, droughts, wildfires & floods. Far outside, perhaps, but still...
Relatedly, even if these things did not change Manchin’s mind, they may have changed centrist elite opinion - and Manchin seems very interested in centrist elite opinion.
It's true that something(s) prompted Manchin to decide he was willing to endure (survive) the blistering attacks from the coal industry that are already coming. Probably a combination of many things. He likely got enough nominal concessions on fossil leases and pipelines to cover his ass from the right while getting eternal gratitude from all Democrats but a small cohort of extremists. He got some generous federal funding for black lung insurance. The prescription drug money will help him with WV voters. He was also relentlessly but politely lobbied by serious climate advocates who won his trust.
On balance, this was pretty miraculous given the politics of the day, with a GOP still dominated and funded by hardcore climate deniers. It's a solid base to build on for those who care about climate change.
Republicans will repeal it 2025.
IFF we let them get in the majority in both houses of Congress and the presidency.
Well I’m not voting for republicans but I have little confidence in the outcome.
My Republican congressman is retiring but he still wouldn’t vote for it.
Shirley this must have been Bernie’s work…
Coal use in the US is about half of what it was in 2010. Manchin simply had less to lose.
That's because carbon capture was the main transfer. Coal, most importantly West Virginia dirty coal becomes competitive to Nat gas and most importantly, western cleaner coal. Henry Clay would be proud as the American system is
More coal energy!!!!!
Mountain Valley Pipeline