Via Keith Humphreys, here's some good news from the Council on Criminal Justice:
For violent crimes other than murder (i.e., rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) Black suspects are being arrested at a lower rate relative to their population than white suspects. I hadn't realized that. The racial disparity in new court commitments for drug and property crimes is also very close to 1.
Racial disparities in other areas are still high, but they're dropping steadily. There's a lot more progress to make, but we are making progress.
I would hope that speaks to improvements, but....it may just indicate the lack of policing in minority communities.
I am delighted to see Keith Humphreys' name show up here. I mourned the demise of the Reality-Based Community blog (Samefacts.com).
I see that Dr. Humphreys referred the article, but was not an author. Is he active in a blog these days?
In 2016 economist Roland G. Fryer, Jr., the youngest African American ever to be awarded tenure at Harvard, came upon what he would call the “most surprising result of my career.” In a study of racial differences in the use of force by police officers, Fryer found that Black and Hispanic civilians were no more likely than white civilians to be shot to death by police.
the youngest African American ever to be awarded tenure at Harvard
Huh. I thought that distinction was still held by Glenn Loury (now at Brown).
Also, I recall reading somewhere -- don't have time to track it down now -- that while there isn't huge racial disparity in officer involved shootings overall, Black suspects were more likely to be unarmed when they were shot.
How, if at all, has the clearance rate (term?) for non-fatal, violent crime changed over the same interval?
It's very low for homicides....other crimes probably worse...
The problem with trying to compare numbers with earlier statistics is that previously, crimes were being pinned on whomever they'd pick up. It wasn't all coerced confessions, it just that if someone was convicted of a crime, then open crimes would be pinned on them and the case cleared without a conviction.
https://www.npr.org/local/309/2019/10/09/768552458/chicago-s-dismal-murder-solve-rate-even-worse-when-victims-are-black
and an overview:
https://www.themarshallproject.org/records/2822-clearance-rates
I don't see where it says "Black suspects are being arrested at a lower rate relative to their population than white suspects." Is that interpreted from one of the graphs or did I miss something?
Yikes! Kevin, take a deeper dive into the data.
The problem is not only arrest rates, its not a fun day to be arrested for anything, but take a look at the incacerations rates, where being black "only" means you are FIVE TIMES more likely to be incarcerated and yes, that dropped from 8 times in 2000, but most of that drop was de-criminalization of drug offenses and the rest of it was in increase in Black population over all.
I mean, its like we arrest 100 white people and 100 black people, and 20 of the white people end up incarcerated and all 100 black people end up incarcerated.
Yeah, fantastic progress.
Also as with inflation and unemployment and a host of other statistics, we should gauge KD's statistic against the incarcerated population. Might be interesting and probably integral to the topic.
Is a disparity ratio of 0.8 (4:5) just as bad as a disparity ratio of 1.25 (5:4)? Would a ratio of 1:1 be best?
In urban areas most of the criminals are black and in rural area they mostly white. And at the NY Post they are most sure all black. 😂
https://nypost.com/2022/09/22/sex-fiend-gets-sweet-deal-from-manhattan-da-bragg-on-teen-rape-charge-then-attacks-5-others-sources/
I really think that we'd be so much better off discussing things in terms of socioeconomic backgrounds instead of race. The Venn Diagram overlap speaks for itself most times anyways. *Most* conservatives are just trying to live their lives and want the best for everyone (like *most* liberals). I'm happy for a poor community with failing schools to get more federal/state money, etc. Whatever. Most people are.
However, do I think LeBron James' kids need more help than my poor, white students because his kids are black? I don't.
I'll never understand why we can't attack poverty without categorizing people. Again, I'm well aware of the Venn Diagram, but clearly there are some white people that could use help and there are more than plenty of black people that don't. If we just helped the impoverished, we'd statistically be helping struggling minority communities just the same.
Could the opioid ‘epidemic’ be part of this? Maybe the incidences of crime in the mostly white rural areas where the opioid problem (and meth too) is worst have increased the percentage of white people arrested.