The Guttmacher Institute recently reported a rise in the abortion rate. It's the second recent increase, following one in 2019:
In addition, the absolute number of abortions increased; the abortion/pregnancy ratio increased; and this happened in every region of the country.
Why? It's all guesswork at this point, but there are a few theories:
- It's just a bit of noise.
- Decreasing lead levels reduced impulsive teen behavior, causing the abortion rate to go down over the long term. However, this doesn't entirely fit the data. Teen birth rates went down starting in the early '90s, which fits the lead theory. But the abortion rate started to decline in the early '80s. In any case, it hardly matters since we're now at a point where lead is a non-factor. It has no influence over small ups and downs in recent years.
- Conservatives have made contraceptives harder to get, which leads to more unwanted pregnancies and more abortions. Maybe, but there's little evidence for either (a) reduced access to contraceptives (the data is hard to get and always out of date) or (b) the belief that reduced access to contraceptives leads to more abortions in the first place. In fact, there's some evidence that more difficult access to contraceptives leads to less sex and therefore fewer abortions.
- Mifepristone/misoprostol (the "abortion pills") has become more widely available, which makes it easier and more convenient to get an abortion.
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- The data for 2020 should be ignored, just like all other pandemic-era data. We still have no handle on what really happened with people during the pandemic.
Basically, this is just a mystery. For now, I'd keep an open mind and wait another few years for more data.
DATA NOTE: The Guttmacher data from 1973-2017 is here. The data from 2017-2020 is linked here. CDC data for teen birth rates is here.
UPDATE: In the fourth bullet I initially referred to Plan B, which is a contraceptive known as the "morning after pill." I meant to refer to mifepristone/misoprostol, which is an abortifacient that has become much more widely used over the past decade. I've corrected the text and added a chart.
People didn't want to bring children into a Trump world? Or maybe it was the pandemic...
People grimace when they think of Larry Clark's kids in 1995, but it coincides with that graph peak. I can say on my own early teenage years, it was pretty on par. Too bad all the negress gang chicks weren't all having abortions. Literally if a black women asks for a abortion, let her have it.
as for the drop in abortion rates from 1980...
1. The pill has gotten much better (lower dosages, different mix of hormones)
2. Condom use went up with AIDS for everyone. And actually talked about in high schools. and readily (freely?) available on college campuses.
3. Better long term birth control methods available.
As for jump in teen birth rates--would need more data but does seem to follow loss of health care benefits with jobs. Sex ed in high schools was always late and did get pushback, especially when kids where shown how to put a condom on a cucumber. It seems to have fallen quite a bit as Obamacare kicked in and more people had coverage. "The pill" is also used for "period control" now.
Wonder if the rethuglicans went all in on life at sperm meets egg knowing that abortion would shift from clinics to at home. I am sure they would love to have all women of the age to wear a device reporting their fertility to Big Brother. HaHaHa!!
Lets see what happens after more than half of the States make abortion illegal or a capital crime. Perhaps as early as July.
Have a happy Independence Day celebration!
Overall, the subtle war on birth control is an attempt to push down the sexual freedom that people in the 60's fought for. Older conservatives are aghast at the results of sexual liberation and the current changes in gender recognition are part of that excessive freedom for people to define gender, sexual preference, and sexuality in general for themselves.
That's going to be the #1 driver for conservatives in 2024, stopping the "grooming" of young people that they can choose their own path and returning sex outside of heterosexual marriage with the intend of making babies to "deviant" status.
Shorter conservatives: you're not free, stay with the herd.