Here's an update on aid shipments into Gaza:
COGAT hasn't been super reliable about providing daily updates, so it's hard to compare the UN numbers with Israeli numbers. On average, though, the Israeli figures are about 20% higher than the UN figures.
The number of aid trucks getting through is up by about a fifth since the middle of April, and several hundred aid trucks have been allowed into northern Gaza, where the situation is the worst. In addition, World Central Kitchen is once again operating, and the pier being constructed by the US military is a few weeks from completion. The UN secretary general says "incremental progress" has been made in getting more food and medical aid into Gaza.
A helpful addition to this graph would be a line showing the level of aid needed. Barring that, since that is a controversial thing to put forth, we could have a line for the average daily trucks that entered before Oct 7. 500 or thereabouts , I think?
Every mouthful is critical, but "incremental progress" after 6 months is no cause for celebration. We have a 20% increase when we need a tripling.
When all the bodies have finished rotting and the ICJ determines that Israel did not fulfil it's obligations to prevent genocide in the slightest, the US will join Israel in denouncing the "biased and anitisemitic" court findings.
“Before the war began, an average of 200 trucks carrying aid entered Gaza each day, according to U.N. figures. A further 300 trucks laden with commercial imports, including food, agricultural supplies and industrial materials, also entered each day via Israel. Since the start of the war, an average of around 100 trucks have entered Gaza daily, according to a review of U.N. and Israeli military statistics on aid shipments.
…
To meet its minimum needs, aid agencies and U.N. officials say Gaza currently requires 500 to 600 trucks a day, including humanitarian aid and the commercial supplies that were coming in before the war. That’s about four times the number of trucks getting in now.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/destruction-lawlessness-red-tape-hobble-aid-gazans-go-hungry-2024-03-25/#:~:text=To%20meet%20its%20minimum%20needs,coming%20in%20before%20the%20war.
It makes no sense that we are spending billions on both blowing up Gaza and on trying to get food and other aid into it for the people whose neighborhoods were blown up by those bombs we paid for.
Israel's per capita GDP is higher than that of France or the UK.
Doesn’t matter how rich they are. They don’t want any aid to get into Gaza.
“We asked our respondents for their opinion regarding the idea that Israel should allow the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents at this time, via international bodies that are not linked to Hamas or to UNRWA. A majority of Jewish respondents (68%) oppose the transfer of humanitarian aid even under these conditions, while a large majority of Arab respondents support it (85%).”
https://en.idi.org.il/articles/52976
They are bloodthirsty and freeloaders at this point.
Our policy has its contradictions, for sure. Getting anything done in government requires trade-offs, i.e., support from different groups with competing interests, and having a final package that is clear and unambiguous is not a top consideration.
I'd have been happier to see a package passed without aid to Israel right now, but if I had a vote in Congress and it was the only way to pass aid to Ukraine, I'd probably have voted yea.
The country is divided. Something like 80% support Israel over Hamas, per a recent poll, but only 36% support the way Israel is waging its war right now. Public opinion is in flux. I'm not sure where it lands. I wonder about the protests. Are they moving people toward the Palestinian side? Some days I think maybe. Other days I think they have the opposite effect. A lot may depend on Israel. If it invades Rafah, then more of the public may swing toward the US making a real break in support for our ally.
I realize for a lot of people support for Israel is a simple choice for Joe Biden. Pull the plug, right? I think it's far more complicated issue. Not to say Biden deserves high marks for everything he's done, but he has been trying hard to mitigate the damage and bring peace. Most of that is not public, and so far with limited success, but quietly is typically how Biden prefers to operate, and to his credit he often does get things done (de-escalating Iran-Israel tensions, getting aid to Ukraine, etc.). Biden understands the long-standing US-Israel relationship better than most pols, and he knows the public is still on Israel's side. So pulling the plug is an easier decision in our living rooms than in the Oval Office.
Opinions of the very online tend to be very much pro-one side and anti-the other. But it's a more complicated situation. And dynamic. Things can change fast. But more likely it's going to take some time before it's clear where this is headed. Even then, it still might not make sense.
Kevin, here's some advice from someone who's made a living doing this kind of stuff. Take a look at the confidence limits on your fitted line and the p-values for the parameters. Just looking at this graph, I'd question whether this is significantly different from a horizontal line.
Bbut, the trendline…
So maybe Israel will not starve Gaza (I don’t really think starving 1.2 million people to death was an achievable goal) but randomly killing families of twenty people each day is still happening.
Gaza was on the edge for years before the Occupation Forces cut loose in this spasm of revenge. I recall chuckling quotes by MKs and PMs about "putting Gaza on a diet" by further curtailments of food shipments in. And this was back in the good old "Mowing the Grass" days, when a little carpet bombing before elections was a winning strategy for Likud.
I'm assuming these are just "shipments TO" Gaza. More pertinent would be "shipments GETTING INTO" Gaza. Israel has been blocking nearly everything, since it could "aid Hamas."
If anybody is "aiding Hamas", it's the indiscriminate slaughter and destruction by the Israeli Occupation Forces. They're creating new generations of anger and resentment that will be hard to overcome ... assuming Israel would even try.
And there's still no plan for when or how this will end. Or what's next.
Meanwhile, The UN Mine Action Service estimates that they'll need 100 trucks and 14 years to clear all the rubble, asbestos, and unexploded bombs. Gaza isn't going to be livable for quite some time. So what is the plan? Israel doesn't know and doesn't care.
Really can't wait for the ICC to charge Netanyahu and other Israeli officials with war crimes (which is supposed to be imminent). That won't make things better for the people from Gaza but there needs to be consequences for what Israel has done.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1149051
I hope everyone's ready for a replay of the World Central Kitchen aid convoy massacre.
meanwhile, Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank are attacking aid convoys headed to Gaza