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Raw data: Childless families by political party

Are you curious about whether Democrats really are a party of childless cat ladies? We know that both women and cat owners are more likely to be Democrats, but how about childless people? Here you go:

Childlessness has gone way up among Democrats over the past three decades while it's gone down among Republicans. I'm pretty sure this is mostly because of declining religiosity among Dems and rising religiosity among Republicans, but I don't have access to the data in order to control for that and find out.

Whatever the reason, Democrats and Republicans used to have about the same number of kids, but that started to change in 2000 and the gap is now pretty big.

33 thoughts on “Raw data: Childless families by political party

    1. somebody123

      college educated people have fewer children (because we can do basic math and expect to live longer enough to retire) and college educated people vote Democrat.

    2. bethby30

      It is probably a combination. Plus people are waiting longer to have kids. Also there are a lot more young people who are Democrats.

    1. Anandakos

      You have to be able to read, comprehend what you read, and turn that comprehension into effective action. Those are tough hills for some Republicans.

        1. jv

          Yes, elected Republican leaders calling for people like me to be killed is really the kind hand of tolerance and understanding slapped away by insults on liberal-leaning blogs.

          Thanks to Republican leaders, it's time for us all to ask ourselves this question: Do I really suck so much that I and my children should be murdered?

          Thanks for the insight.

            1. kaleberg

              Start with all those people who have outlawed abortion leading to more dead women and more dead babies. Move on to the Trump crime wave late in his term that Biden managed to get under control. Throw in the anti-semitc right wing goons Trump spoke of favorably. We all know Trump and his people's agenda. They'll lie about it when questioned, but their actions betray them. Some of us have learned from history.

  1. masscommons

    Useful and interesting charts; one of the many reasons we come here. Thanks.

    A quibble on the interpretation:

    Three decades ago (1994) is an outlier for Republicans. If you start at 2000, then Republican childlessness is basically flat, with a slight uptick in the last available year of data.

  2. Art Eclectic

    I find this idea that somehow people who don't reproduce are less patriotic, less valuable, and deviant in some way to be an infuriating distraction. It's only been since birth control became widely available and the stigma was removed that people who just didn't want kids could also enjoy a sex life.

    Have kids, don't have kids. The fact that anyone is making one side "better" than the other is a sign that they're out of rational arguments.

    1. aldoushickman

      As a somewhat older but still child-bearing age person who happens to live in a red state, I'll also cop to some fury at the Vances of this world mocking childlessness--an added issue for my spouse and me is that, should a pregnancy of ours run into complications, doctors in our state would be terrified to terminate because our dear Republican government may well prosecute them.

      So thank you very much, you fucker republicans, for forcing us to confront a reality that, in this year of our Lord 2024, us planning to have a child means contemplating maternal injury or death simply because Team Red has crippled vital reproductive care. While simultaneously suggesting our lack of biologic kiddos means we're somehow less American.

  3. Anandakos

    Is that right hand blue figure "36%" or "76%"?

    Oh, I get it; never mind. It's the percent change, not just an annotation of the last data point.

  4. jte21

    There are probably a lot of factors at play here, from religion to educational attainment to income. But I think a lot of it has to do with geographic sorting. Democrats tend to be concentrated in urban areas and costal enclaves where it's simply too expensive to have a large family, so you either don't have kids or just have one or -- at the most -- two.

    Also, there are not a few millennial couples out there these days who are committed to remaining childless just because they can't in good conscience bring kids into a world so many conservatives are doing their best to destroy economically, ecologically, and ideologically.

  5. cmayo

    Probably some selection bias in here, as mentioned in some other comments.

    But there's also just the simple fact that having babies and furthering the (white) nation is Republican dogma and has been ever since they fully absorbed the anti-abortion movement decades ago. Republican voter types are less likely to decide they can't afford a kid and therefore won't have one, or that bringing a kid into a shitty world is not something they should do, than Democratic voter types. Republicans either don't see those as problems or ignore them and have kids anyway, because it's their tribal duty.

    To an extent, they are outbreeding us. Even though you can't control how your child will end up politically, it's a "pro" in the pro/con columns for us - we think our kid would be more likely to be not-conservative, and somebody's gotta outvote them.

    1. Atticus

      Yes, all those inner city unwed mothers carefully weigh the economic impact of having children. Or maybe you are saying they are all republicans?

      1. Five Parrots in a Shoe

        Pause while I fire up the Republican translator app . . . .

        Ah, here we go: "inner city unwed mothers" means "black women on welfare."

        1. Atticus

          Correct. And let me break out my Democrat translator app.

          Ah, here we go: "Republican voter types are less likely to decide they can't afford a kid" means "white rural women on welfare".

  6. SamChevre

    I wonder how much of this has to do with rates of single motherhood. (Does "family" here mean married parents, as it does for income measures, or is it just "related people"?)

    It's not wrong to think of Democrats as centrally the party of unmarried women, and Republicans as centrally the party of 2-parent families with children. I think I'm remembering correctly that rates of childbirth to unmarried women have gone down fairly dramatically over the last couple decades.

    1. Art Eclectic

      Democrats are not the part of unmarried women. They are the party of people who expect certain freedoms like right to make their own reproductive decisions, marry or have intimacy with whomever they choose, worship (or not) the entity of their choice, and express their gender as they choose. They also are the party that idealizes raising people up from poverty by providing opportunity vs telling them to bootstrap their lazy asses.

      I think you'd have a stretch to say that Republicans are the party of two parent families, given the poverty and unwed mother rate in white communities that vote solidly Republican.

  7. Scott_F

    I can't shake the idea that age (and self-sorting?) is big factor here. If the democratic party appeals to younger voters, then one would expect more childless because fewer young families have had children than older, more established families. That is unavoidable. Further more ANY shift in the age at which people have children is by definition going to show-up far more on the Democrat's side than the Republicans for the same reasons.

    If this were controlled for age AND showed the NUMBER of children, it would be a far more useful chart, Not as useful as a chart showing the actual rates of single-female-cat-owners of course 😀

  8. Pingback: Cooked data: Another look at childless families by political party – Kevin Drum

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