The New York Times presents us today with this chart showing congressional retirements compared to the past couple of election cycles:
It looks like everything is perfectly normal this year. Both Democratic and Republican retirements are right on track with their 2022 levels.
Not all retirements are equally important: the number of retirements is not really the key metric.
Rather, given polarization, retirements in swing districts or folks holding seats that a replacement is not likely to retain (Manchin) are what is meaningful, politically.
You never know with some districts. Abortion back on the ballot shifts things and plenty of middle road folks are rethinking their appreciation of Republicans.