Here are two measures of consumer confidence, one from an OECD survey and one from the University of Michigan:
Both measures agree that consumer confidence has been rising over the past year. However, it's still way below normal. It's no wonder that the economy hasn't yet helped improve Joe Biden's approval rating.
Why is 100 "normal"? Seems to me 100 should be "ambivalent" or "whatever, I don't care".
The survey doesn't measure "ambivalence". Maybe everyone is normally very optimistic. Or pessimisstic.
My memory may be failing me.....but this is certainly the first time I remember every piece of economic news being reported as a negative no matter what the data actually says.
Low hiring number are bad, but so are high hiring numbers.
Low wage increases are bad, but so are high wage increases.
Everything seems be portrayed as directly or indirectly bad for Americans.
This might sound sarcastic, but it isn't.
1. There is a negativity bias that pervades the news. Good news doesn't get clicks.
2. Liberals are, on average, a sour group. (If the economy was this good under an R president, every single R would say the economy was the best it has ever been. But Ds seek to find the cloud in the silver lining.)
3. The heads of media organizations want TFG back so bad.
My reaction is, of course people lack confidence in the economy. We've been through three years of serious disruption to the economy and our lives in general, and it hasn't settled down yet. Republican leadership is made up of showboating clowns and the media loves the circus. Biden's calm and sober style doesn't make headlines but his son's unsavory acts do. And as jdubs says, the economic news is always bad for Americans. Except for the 1%.
My hope is that the economy keeps chugging along through 2024 - I think that will be the factor that decides the election. But of course hope is not a plan and no one can tell what shocks to the system may happen during the next 15 months.
I have the misfortune of watching CNBC at the gym several times a week and I am surprised at how often the slant is negative no matter what the news is. Inflation is intractable until, that is, it makes way for the coming recession. I'm not expecting pollyana from the news but it's remarkable how gloomy these folks are no matter what. And it's not limited to CNBC. Listening to Marketplace on NPR does not give a different view. My take is that the investor class is always worried that some of their profits may make it's way into the wages of us regular folks so it's important to always look at the dark side of life to keep us worried and afraid.
The front runner for the GOP presidential nomination is threatening to do all manner of things I don’t like. And even if he loses to Biden, he and his supporters are so batshit crazy that it seems prudent to be cautious about the future. So yeah, I have no confidence in, well, anything.
Break out the numbers by party and you'll probably get a different view of whether consumers are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy.
In any case, here's the o/p tilt for presidential elections:
Consumer Confidence - Optimistic
2000
2004
2016
Consumer Confidence - Pessimistic
2008
2012
2020
The country elected Republicans in optimistic years and Democrats in pessimistic years, regardless of incumbency. (Per OECD data, that pattern holds for all presidential elections back to 1984, with 1996 the one exception.)
Keep that in mind when prognosticating the impact on next year's election.
"still way below normal"
How can you tell? The blue range is +/- 4%. That seems essentially flat to me.
The fact that the red range is much wider suggests I can pretty much pick any range I want and map the data into that range.