Here's the annual growth rate of the largest countries in the world:
Of the top eight countries, all have per capita GDPs under $15,000 except for the US, which clocks in at $60,000. Who's your bet to lead this list 30 years from now?
18 thoughts on “Raw data: Economic growth of big countries”
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Russia. They can only go up from here.
There's no reason they can't continue to decline, and they probably will, given their disastrous demographics.
Vietnam. I'd expect some countries from sub-Saharan Africa to be on the list. I'm not sure who because I can't say which countries are fairly stable.
I don't think Vietnam is big enough to make this list. I presume "largest countries" is "largest by population" and I don't believe that Vietnam's population growth is high enough to ever plausibly push it into the top 15.
Vietnam has a population nearly twice that of Italy, which is on this list.
Is that per capita GDP value an average or median? I’ll bet it is an average pulled up by the existence of a small number of super high earners.
Assuming things haven’t gone completely down the drain in 30 years, I’d say the US will be about where it is. Vietnam is a good guess for the lead. China will drop down quite a bit. It grew rapidly from extreme poverty, now it will approach steady-state.
Especially given how intent Chinese leadership is on fucking it up.
Is that per capita GDP value an average
Yes. That's what "per capita" implies. You can do median income, but not median GDP.
I find the continental Europe figures to be very interesting. The US (1.6%) clearly out performs Germany and France (both about 1%). Italy at .5% is really struggling economically.
IF the growth asymmetry (US to western Europe) continues, you will likely see a material relative decline in standards of living in countries like France (when compared to the US).
Many of these numbers straight up cannot be trusted. China and Russia's especially, but Turkey has been cooking the books for awhile as well in my understanding.
The World Bank does a good job ferreting out reporting inaccuracies. There's zero doubt the phenomenon you cite exists. On the other hand, governments presiding over large economies in the 2020s can only get away with so much lying, given the exposure of those economies to the outside world.
With per capita income of under $15K, those seven countries can sustain growth rates of 4% per year for 30 years without catching up to the U.S. They still have a lot of potential.
Climate change, an aging population, and net emmigration of the more educated are likely to be big problems for those 7 countries. So, my vote goes to Ukraine in 30 years.
South Korea.
It's friendly to business, has a sufficiently young, ambitious population, and supports an expanding stable of global businesses.
There's no way a country whose workforce is shrinking is going to lead the world in growth rates over the next three decades. It's almost mechanically impossible. Fortunately, already being a rich country with a very high standard of living, South Korea doesn't need to grow very fast to continue to be a highly prosperous place.
Those whose populations aren't declining.
I logged in to write a reply and saw you'd hit the gist of what I want to say. France, Japan, and Italy have declining populations, but already rank pretty high in per capita income. Having positive economic growth at all tends to make me think they are doing pretty well.
Economic measures need to be adjusted for population and population growth or they mean nothing.
But it's a per-capita value being charted.
Who's your bet to lead this list 30 years from now?
India, and it won't be close.
More low-hanging fruit in terms of productivity improvements than any country on this list except Nigeria, and it's not a basket-case like the latter. Plus, it's already #2, and China's salad days are long behind us.