What's the leading cause of death in the United States? Heart disease. But what's the fastest growing cause of death? Both accidental poisoning and alcoholic liver disease are up a lot, but the winner—by a mile—turns out to be "other infectious and parasitic diseases," which have gone up an astonishing 1500% since 2000. Malnutrition deaths have nearly doubled.
Here are the top 20 growth diseases in the US. It's drawn from the CDC's list of 113 causes of death, and I included only diseases with at least one death per 100,000 in 2000.
Below that is the top 20 list of biggest decliners. Atherosclerosis—blocked arteries—is the big winner, down 71% since 2000. Hooray for statins and bypass surgery! Also among the big decliners are HIV, ulcers, and smoke inhalation.
Homicide by firearm, up 63%.
The NRA is getting results.
Yes, I noticed that. And firearm deaths in the USA have always been relatively high.
And accidents up 42%. Is that because of an ageing society. Or are people just getting more foolish?
Most firearm deaths are by suicide. Not sure where that would fit in with this data.
As name99 pointed out below, accidental poisoning could include overdoses.
Look again at the chart. The category which saw 63% growth was specifically gun homicides. Suicides would be a separate category, and apparently one which has not seen nearly as much growth.
The NRA's entire project for the past 40+ years has been to get people to stop thinking of guns as recreational equipment used by hunters and target shooters, and to think of them instead as tools of personal security, in case you ever need to stand your ground on someone. This 63% growth in gun homicides is a direct result of that project.
Gun suicides may well be listed as "other", as the "Dickey Amendment" of 1996 restricts the CDC from using funds to advocate for gun control. The NRA and its Republican allies regard any research into gun deaths as advocating for gun control.
“Accidental poisoning” is tied to climate change. One of the leading accidental poisonings is carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, which occurs (among other scenarios) in the aftermath of severe weather events when electricity outages lead to portable generator use. And climate change of course is linked to more frequent and more severe bad weather
Old people have to die of something.
Really? Who'd would have guessed? I guess old age is a diagnosis anymore.
Just to be clear - is this total deaths, or deaths per 100,00? I wish Kevin would be more specific about what statistics he is showing us, and what the source is.
The data describes which causes of death become more frequent (blue) and which become less frequent (red). The figures are % of change from 2000 to 2020.
Right, but the percentage increase could apply to the relative incidence (ie, the per capita rate) or the raw number. It's not clear which.
The former would obviously be more meaningful since, while the US population isn't growing as rapidly as it used to, we did manage something like a 17% cumulative increase in the first two decades of the current century. In other words, if we're just looking at raw totals, some of this will be causes by sheer population increase.
Some of those diagnoses sound old fashioned, atherosclerosis or chronic bronchitis for example. Doctors use different terms nowadays so this does not reflect any epidemiological change.
agreed.
> "Alzheimer disease"
What is it about apostrophes that causes such a panic? How hard can it be to say or write "Alzheimer's"?
I seed "suicide by other and unspecified causes" but I don't see "suicide" by any other cause--I'm guessing by firearms?
Partly about changes in reporting. Also, is 1500% a lot? Not if it's 1500% of a very small number. Charts of the changes in the absolute rate values would have been more meaningful, along with aggregating categories of causes that are more or less the same things by different terms.
Showing the total from each cause (per capita) along with the increase (a bar with an add-on) would be much more useful.
There is "other and unspecified..." and "all other diseases". Seems to be an overlap. Of course it would be important to know what is in the "other and unspecified..." if it is in fact a major cause of death (we don't know this from Kevin's graph). Where does covid come in?
The diseases reported had, Kevin says, a minimum death rate of one per 100,000 in 2,000. That's base of at least 3,000 deaths, and a 1,500 percent increase takes you to at least 45,000 deaths; so no, not very small numbers.
How many of these are downstream of increased drug use?
I could certainly believe this for the first two and malnutrition.
Increased deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases <— more tick- and mosquito-borne disease organisms <— anthropogenic global climate change
My guess is that's mainly covid, which had a zero death rate before 2019.
That was my thought, too. Is it through 2020 inclusive, or not?
Covid doesn't seem to fall into the top category
https://www.cms.gov/ICD10Manual/version33-fullcode-cms/fullcode_cms/P0327.html
The categorizations could be better.
So it is a dot-com company’s astronomical growth rate thanks to starting small, all over again?
Where's COVID on this list? It's not clear what category that falls into. Seems like there have been a few deaths from that over the last four years.
covid is an infectious disease
Yep. Assuming the figures include 2020 (ie it's not an endpoint), COVID would surely account for a spike in infectious disease as a cause of death.
You don't say...
But there's no such category in the graph. The closest is "Other and unspecified diseases", but that hardly seems to encompass a worldwide pandemic.
It is not at all clear that bypass surgery reduces the death rate from atherosclerosis. The surgery does improve the quality of life by reducing angina, but the possibility of a piece of arterial plaque coming loose and causing a fatal obstruction remains. The reduction in the death rate from atherosclerosis is more likely a result of statins and a reduction in the popularity of smoking.
But statins aren't that effective.
"But what's the fastest growing cause of death? " The obvious answer is covid which is up and infinite percentage since 2000. It went from zero deaths per year to being the 10th leading cause of death.
At its peak it was #1 - there were more people dying from COVID than from heart disease and cancer combined.
Although COVID outpaced all other causes of death during the months when Delta and Omicron waves happened, from a yearly-total perspective, COVID has never placed above 3rd in the CDC's list of the 15 most common causes of death. Heart disease and cancer have stayed in the top 2 for every year of the pandemic.
So far in 2024, COVID has dropped to 14th place among the top 15 causes of death—below septicemia and above nutritional deficiencies. Of course, final numbers take a couple of months to trickle in, but that's true for all other causes, too. I don't expect COVID will move up much.
So far this year, deaths due to heart disease (per 100k) are on track to end up down about 5% from 2018 and 2019. And deaths from cancers are on track to be down about 5% from 2018 and 2019.
Elon has sold all his houses. He travels around with 20-person security detail (that's not counting a doctor and some medical professionals who follow him around, too). Asked where he stays, he says he stays with friends—nothing about where the friends put up the security detail—but I suppose his friends are living in 50 bedroom mansions. Supposedly, Musk is building a bunker to live in. And there's a story (possibly apocryphal) that he was asking his rich buddies for advice on how to protect himself from his security detail in case they betray him during the coming apocalypse. It sounds to me like he's becoming the 21st Century's Howard Hughes.