The incarceration rate of the Black male community has dropped in half since 2001, from 3.3% to 1.6%. That's substantial, but even the 2022 number is largely the result of a lot of inertia: men who were imprisoned years ago with long sentences remain in prison today.
But as Rick Nevin reports, the story is far better among young Black men, who are mostly incarcerated because they were admitted recently. Among the youngest Black men, the incarceration rate has plummeted by nearly 90%, from 2.9% to 0.3%:
Incarceration rates are higher for men in their 20s, but the decline in their incarceration rate has been nearly has impressive: about 70% since 2001.
As older men age out of their sentences and are released, we should expect the incarceration rate of Black men overall to continue dropping, probably to well under 1%.
The reason for the steep drop in incarceration is twofold. First, crime rates have fallen dramatically since their peak in 1991, leading to lower arrest and incarceration rates. Second, less punitive treatment of nonviolent drug offenses has produced a lower overall incarceration rate. In 2001, about 21% of all prisoners were being held on drug convictions. By 2022 that had dropped to 12%.
POSTSCRIPT: The total prison population in the US has dropped by nearly a quarter in just the past decade:
This decrease comes in the face of a still rising overall population. The incarceration rate in the US has dropped by more than a quarter.
OMG it's a CATASTROPHE! Something MUST be DONE about this! It's the END OF AMERICA AS WE KNOW IT!!!
Mister Trump NEVER would have let this happen!
CROOKED JOE BIDEN IS ALLOWING OUR SACRED PRISONS TO FALL APART BY KEEPING THEM EMPTY! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
It will take a couple of generations to play out.
Those that do well end up having to support both parent(s) and kids...and maybe other extended family members. And if people have been incarcerated for extended periods or undocumented, then they won't have access to Social Security (no job histories). It will be their kids that have a chance to start to build up generational wealth.
Slate has a recent write up of this--sorry I couldn't find it earlier:
https://slate.com/business/2024/03/supporting-parents-financially-generational-wealth.html
Are we suffering from an empty prison crisis!!!!!
Are we having a prison gap with Russia like we had a bomber gap with the USSR!!!!
Let's not forget the mine shaft gap.
I know I won't.
Looking at the final graph, that nearly 400,000 drop was concentrated in 2019-2020. Very steep drop, then back to slow trend.
Some portion is likely Covid deaths and early release of sick prisoners. Eyeballing the chart it looks like about 250,000 fewer prisoners from 2019-2020.
I did the math on the incarceration rate change - 1.6 million prisoners, population of 313.6 million in 2012, 1.23 million, 338.3 million in 2012.
505 prisoners per 100,000 in 2012, 364 prisoners per 100,000 in 2022. the rate dropped by 28%.
To my apparently untrained eye, the ratio looks to be nearly the same (between 2012 and 2022), despite the first graph seemingly representing a large numerical decrease in the incarceration of black men.
What's the over/under on some of the racist trolls around here complaining that this is bad news?
I'm sure Mr. anti-DEI would love to post a wall of text about it.
This likely represents the continuing effects of lower lead poisoning. Childhood lead poisoning has been demonstrated to increase crime in adults 20 years later. Thus as childhood lead poisoning declines you see lower crime rates 20 years later.
Or, it's the continuing effect of "woke ideology" that attempts to see Black children as, you know, actual children instead of fodder for the prison system and murderous adults in kid costumes.
I don't see why it can't be both.
How in the world did this post somehow not mention lead?