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Raw data: Orders for consumer goods fell again in April

Published on 6 Comments on Raw data: Orders for consumer goods fell again in April

Adjusted for inflation, new manufacturing orders for consumer goods fell another 0.5% in April, continuing a decline that began a year ago:

Since June of 2022, new orders for consumer goods have declined nearly 10%. New orders for all manufactured goods have declined 5%.

6 thoughts on “Raw data: Orders for consumer goods fell again in April”

  1. cmayo

    I'm less concerned about this because inflation has been almost entirely on the price side - possibly at the final point of sale (although I have no reason to think that manufacturers wouldn't have gotten in on the price gouging as well). I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing for the economy as a whole.

  2. joey5slice

    Alternate headline: orders for consumer goods approach pre-pandemic trend after surging to unsustainable post-vaccine recovery levels.

    But again, Kevin only looks at the pre-February 2020 trend when it suits his pre-determined narrative.

  3. weirdnoise

    Now, look at credit card debt. Look at productivity. Powell is going to get his wish. I think post-pandemic exuberance will soon result in a recessionary hangover.

  5. D_Ohrk_E1

    Nominally, new orders have increased two months straight. Lingering/ongoing effects of exogenous inflation can fool you as to the direction of the economy. As noted today by CNN:

    “This economy is incredibly resilient, despite all the slings and arrows – despite the banking crisis, rate hikes, the debt ceiling,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in a phone interview on Friday.

    Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin.

    “For this year, given these jobs numbers, it’s hard to see a recession. Increasingly, the odds of a recession this year are fading,” Zandi said. “A lot of economists who have called for a recession are now in the uncomfortable position of pushing back the start date.”

    [...]

    “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. “We’ve never had a recession when the labor market was running this hot. In fact, it would be absurd to use r-word at a time when we’re creating jobs at this rate.”

    Are you searching for data to fit your belief?

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