Last month I showed some data suggesting that, sensational media reports notwithstanding, the rate of shoplifting hadn't changed much recently. Today I came across a new analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice that reports shoplifting rates from 24 big cities across the country. Here it is:
There has been a smallish spike in shoplifting this year, from around 35 incidents per 100,000 people up to 40. However, that's a minor blip in a long-term trend of lower shoplifting rates apparently spurred by the pandemic.
Generally speaking, shoplifting hit a low point in 2021 and has been slowly increasing since then, but it's still well below the rates of four years ago. Since 2019, shoplifting has increased in seven cities, including New York and Los Angeles, and is down in 17 cities, including San Francisco and Chicago. Adjusted for inflation, the average value of goods stolen has increased from $90 to $100. The share of shoplifting incidents classified as felonies doubled from 8% to 16%.
POSTSCRIPT: Obviously not all shoplifting is reported, so the raw numbers in the chart are probably low. However, there's no reason to think the reporting rate has changed much, so the chart still gives a good indication of how much shoplifting has changed over the past five years.
And that's why Republicans think they can just steal things, they're being fashionable.
Shop lifting is increasing because the MBA's in HQ have been reducing the number of workers on the floor. Workers on the floor are a cost that must be eliminated!
I can believe it, based on what I've seen. I work with a person who retired from being in-house security for a large grocery chain just a couple of years ago, who told me the company was downsizing and laying off Security left and right when they left, the department pretty much no longer existed.
People seem to think payrolls are just another unfair tax, so eat the savings, then blame the poor for whatever problems crop up - which, see above again, don't even really exist.
Self-checkout is also a factor - very easy to cheat.
Of fail at. I've walked off with stuff from the hardware store a couple times only to rush back and realize some tag or other wasn't on the receipt.
But that doesn't even require automation so mich as the clerks don't have time to chat with other departments enough to realize the mistake.
At least in the Bay Area, the public perception of increased shoplifting seems to be due to a small number of organized gangs that are stealing lots of goods, not people shoplifting a few items. Police seem to be getting a handle on this, though as a civilian it is hard to know.
“ Carmelita Barela, 30, is accused in at least 20 retail theft incidents, totaling more than $15,000 in goods, between March 30 and Oct. 29 at the store in the Westfield San Francisco Centre. She was arrested on Monday, Nov. 6, spokespersons said.”
Heh, that hasn’t been a “Westfield” mall since they walked away from the mortgage.
That and organized gangs, complete with get away cars and a tool set, attacking a store and removing as much stuff as they can handle.
Well my local supermarket has recently instituted a number of annoying anti-shoplifting policies. Hard to see why they would do that if they weren't having a big problem.
They do it because they BELIEVE there is a big problem. Does not mean they are right about that.
Business know exactly how much they lose to theft.
I worked in the high-tech industry for almost 45 years (retired about 5 year ago). I've seen a lot of supposedly smart people do some amazingly stupid things.
One thing I notice is (poor) self-service AND regular checkout. I only know of one company that does a good job with that - Costco. That's because they did NOT implement either staffed checkout or self service checkout with the idea that it would allow them to reduce employment. Every Costco store I've been in has a good number of employees at the self-checkout lines to help keep things moving smoothly. If things get busy, more people come from other tasks to help out. Very well done.
They do the same thing with the regular checkouts. If things get busy they rapidly open new lines. When things quiet down, the people working the registers and packing the carts go back to cleanup, restocking, pulling more goods from the back stock rooms to be ready for restocking, helping people get bulk/heavy items out to cars, retrieving carts, etc.
Yeah, my grocery store added self-checkouts, and they're down more than usual.
They're worse than having a minor just learning to check things out because they'll error out if you're carrying a bag or doing bagging. In addition to breaking on random items and alcohol.
Scroll down to Figure 2 and uncheck all but Los Angeles and Little Rock. Kind of funny.
+1
Perhaps staff less likely to call the cops for shoplifting post-George Floyd?
Otherwise, would expect post-COVID effects to have diminished now that COVID restrictions mostly gone, right?
Bad press from a high profile killing where people can point and say “Cops killed a guy because [store] workers called the police”. No easy way for a company to spin that
"Bad press from a high profile killing where people can point and say “Cops killed a guy because [store] workers called the police”. No easy way for a company to spin that"
Somebody's spinning here. Its not store workers or companies.
The acts committed by organized gangs shouldn't be classified as shoplifting. It is something more akin to looting.
Progressives seem to have a blind spot on this issue. The perps aren't hungry Jean Valjeans stealing a loaf of bread or desperate mothers stealing a quart of milk to feed their babies. Progs should stop trivializing and excusing this behavior.
Shoplifting is a type of petty theft. When the value reaches a threshold (different in various states) it becomes grand theft. Those group smash and grab things you see on the news are robberies. If a group of people go in to a store to steal stuff and just walk out with it without any violence I suppose the charge would be up to a DA but I suppose the DA could charge organized crime.
Part of the problem, it seems to me, is how brazen these shoplifting incidents have become and the stores policies of not allowing employees to stop the criminal. I don’t know if there is a solution to this. It makes sense for stores to value their employees and customers safety over a couple hundred dollars worth of merchandise. Who knows if the thief is armed? But at the same time the way to stop this kind of thing is to make it more likely that the thief is captured. Certainty of capture is the most reliable deterrent.
Blind spot?
It's barely considered shoplifting legally, as it's organized crime.
The right-wing loves to crow about it being 'legalized' but it hasn't.
"The right-wing loves to crow about it being 'legalized' but it hasn't."
If something isn't being prosecuted it has effectively been legalized. Like marijuana use in federal law.
It is being prosecuted, but it isn't always easy to catch the perpetrators.
It's not progressives. Seattle is chock-a-block with progressives, but it has been making progress against the shoplifting rings with stronger sentences and coordinated enforcement. You could even make a progressive argument against shoplifting rings in that they involve repressive crime-lord oppressing the crime-peasants who do the actual lifting..
So, according to this piece in the Post (below), some of the "shoplifting" in DC stores is actually a group of people taking almost everything in the store that isn't locked down. If the pictures actually depict the results of "shoplifting," you'll see the shelves are essentially empty. I don't think it even makes sense to classify that as shoplifting: that's huge theft of everything in the store. I don't quite understand how this kind of theft can actually be pulled off: are they super-fast, or are the employees just not calling the cops, or are the cops just not coming? And from what I've heard about the DC police recently, I can't help but wonder if they just don't respond or something?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/18/shoplifting-problem-dc-reduce-cvs/
It’s actually a really good article. Police need to get smarter to catch the thieves. The type of mass thefts described are not “shoplifting” but are often classified as such in the press and general public.
The shelves are essentially empty in 'just in time' shops anyhow, and they're the ones whining about shoplifting.
Whining? Are you saying theft isn’t a legitimate concern for businesses?
"Obviously not all shoplifting is reported, so the raw numbers in the chart are probably low. However, there's no reason to think the reporting rate has changed much, so the chart still gives a good indication of how much shoplifting has changed over the past five years."
IF the aforementioned is true then
1. Why have merchants changed practices (many more items under lock and key) and robustly discussed this topic (earnings calls, closing stores)?
2. Shoplifting, it seems, is more topical than say five years ago. Is this all based on misperception ?
For my day job, I am a numbers guy. Sometimes you learn its 'garbage in then its garbage out' in terms of data analysis. Either we are facing a broad based misunderstanding, or the numbers are not showing the actual facts on the ground.
I find it hard to believe that shoplifting was much more common in 2020 and prior....
I cannot say if shoplifting is frequency changed from 2020 and earlier, but I am seeing more things in the aisles behind lock and key.
Blaming shoplifting gives them an excuse that isn't their incompetence.
Lots of people "find it hard to believe" that a whole host of crimes were more common in 2020, 2015, 2010, 2005, 2000, 1995, and 1990 than they are today. And yet they are. Same thing with all sorts of problems in high school: violence, drug and alcohol use, teen pregnancy all are significantly less common now.
Maybe the focus on such crimes on social media and local media has something to do with the perception.
Well, if this is all true, why are stores, putting security guards at the exits of every store. And many customers are being checked, just like Costco. Why are all the stores taking out cash registers with a real person and putting in self-serve. That’s what’s happening in my area. I do see that they have locked up, the liquor at Walmart. I don’t know how that works. My grocery store has put all alcohol behind clear plastic doors and there’s only one way in and out. It seems that alcohol might be one of their big losses.
Alcohol is expensive. It's always been a big target.
The comment about Los Angeles and Little Rock got me to start clicking on individual cities, and there you do see that some of the cities that the news has focused on - Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, have significantly higher shoplifting rates than before the pandemic, while others do not - specifically Little Rock, Chandler, Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Minneapolis, and St. Louis. Still need to look at the rest.
Not sure how you drew that conclusion if you really clicked on individual cities. San Francisco saw a spike from mid-2021 to mid-2022, but overall its shoplifting rate is *lower* than before the pandemic (5% decrease from Jan 2019 to June 2023). Seattle is down 20%.
You're right about LA and NY, though.
As with SF, Boston and Chicago are about where they were before the pandemic.
I should have said had post-pandemic spikes that sent them higher for at least a time. Both Seattle and San Francisco had those mid-2021 to mid-2022 spikes that send their rates higher than pre-pandemic, but are indeed lower now. I'm not sure what would have cause both cities to have those spikes simultaneously.
There are two things going on.
1) There was a rise in organized shoplifting rings who recruited low level shoplifters and fenced their merchandise. It's one of those move fast and break things business models that exploited loopholes in existing laws and patterns of enforcement. It requires a coordinated approach to fight, but this is being done in a number of cities.
2) There were a lot of mergers in the drugstore business leading to a surplus of stores in various areas. This is a form of crime, but one generally condoned for a combination of ideological reasons and payoffs to politicians. Despite promises made before the mergers, it was rather obvious that a lot of stores were going to have to close once actual competition was eliminated. Shoplifting rings provided an excuse.
(Note: I am not alleging coordination between drugstore company executives and shoplifting ring kingpins, but I wouldn't be shocked if it is uncovered at some point.)