Skip to content

Raw data: The US murder rate over the past decade

Here is my best estimate of the change in the murder rate over the past decade:

Data for the years 2010-19 comes from old-school FBI Uniform Crime Reporting. The years 2020-21 come from the FBI's new NIBRS reporting. The year 2022 comes from combining population weighted local reporting for big cities and FBI reporting for smaller cities (both through Q3). I used growth rates rather than absolute levels because the adoption of NIBRS makes it impossible to compare levels across the past four years. Conversely, growth rates are roughly comparable though not entirely reliable.

Two things are worth noting. First, 2020 is the only year of big growth. Second, although growth immediately slowed down after 2020, it only slowed a little bit. This means the absolute level of murders has stayed nearly the same. The murder rate skyrocketed in 2020 and we've stayed at that high level for the past couple of years.

34 thoughts on “Raw data: The US murder rate over the past decade

  1. jharp

    So during the worst part of the pandemic murders and traffic deaths skyrocket.

    I’ve heard the theory that less cars meant faster driving meant more death.

    I have no idea if that is accurate but what is the explanation for the murders?

    1. HokieAnnie

      Increased Domestic violence. Families living together hunkering down to avoid COVID meant more fights and friction. In the county I live in, in Northern Virginia that accounts for 100% of the increase in murders for 2020 - all were family member against family member.

      1. name99

        Do we actually know this?

        I assume that murder can be classified fairly accurately (ie enough details are known, even for unsolved cases) to bin them into something like
        - disputes within family and friends
        - disputes between criminal groups (ie "gang" and "drug" violence)
        - unclear "other"

        You're asserting the growth is all in the first class, and give an example of one county, which is a nice datapoint but hardly serves for the entire nation. I'd like to see aggregate stats of the above form because I think there could be a lot of interesting patterns there.
        For example I could make up a story (no idea whether it's true or not) that what's really happened in the past few years is criminal gangs have become much more violent about their turf because of loss of money they used to get from marijuana sales. Or because fentanyl has upset previous implicit balances and allowed a whole lot of new players to jostle against each other for territory.

    2. cephalopod

      There were a lot more guns and fewer law-abiding people out and about in 2020. Shooters don't particularly like having a lot of witnesses around, so empty streets (fewer citizens and fewer cops) created more opportunities to shoot without being seen. Once you have an increase in shootings, the retribution cycle begins and people's expectations about the use of violence change. That is hard to break out of, and is why spikes in murders take years to fully dissipate.

      In some places the successful prosecution of organized crime has changed the way violence works. Tightly controlled gangs use violence differently than disorganized groups of young people, and if you destroy a large gang, you can end up with random, pointless violence caused by young men posturing among their peer group.

    3. Jasper_in_Boston

      I have no idea if that is accurate but what is the explanation for the murders?

      1) A lot of young men (by far our most violent cohort) who normally would be occupied by school or work no longer occupied by school or work. 2) A spike in drug profits up for grabs (which leads to more turf wars) driven by the sudden windfall of free cash from Uncle Same. 3) A go-slow strike by some elements of law enforcement resentful of being called to account for police brutality. 4) A spike in domestic violence.

      1. ColBatGuano

        A go-slow strike by some elements of law enforcement resentful of being called to account for police brutality.

        This really needs to be investigated. It seems clear that the police in my city have taken a hands-off approach as a warning to the city council and mayor that they don't appreciate oversight.

        1. Jasper_in_Boston

          Why is it useless? You seriously don't find tracking the increase (or decrease) in the homicide rate interesting? If you want raw data on numbers or rate it's super easy to google.

          1. jvoe

            The biggest change (2019 to 2020) occurs across two different sources of data. One of which Kevin says is "Conversely, growth rates are roughly comparable though not entirely reliable." The change is nearly 3-fold from the next highest level. Smells like some NYTimes-level analysis--Not the usual fare from KD.

      1. skeptonomist

        Yes, the data allow a graph of the overall numbers, although there may be discontinuities. Showing only the changes omits information.

  2. lancc

    Here's what I'm interest in: The right wingers are constantly telling us about the skyrocketing crime in Los Angeles, as if it's all Joe Biden's fault when it isn't the fault of the new D.A. Therefore it would be interesting to see the rate numbers (if possible) rather than the rate of change numbers. You mention some difficulties due to a change in the way the FBI does the accounting, but there must be some way of determining these things.

    1. TheMelancholyDonkey

      Reconciling two data series compiled in different ways is sometimes, though not always, possible. But it requires more time and technical expertise than Kevin probably has. It's not something you just say, "There must be a way," about.

  3. Jasper_in_Boston

    Kevin, a bleg: might you have time (or the interest) at some point to re-visit that meata-study out of Scotland a view years ago re: environmental lead? I'm wondering if it's held up to scrutiny.

  4. rick_jones

    First, 2020 is the only year of big growth.

    12.5% and 10.9% are big. 29.4% is enormous.

    Not sure what they were, but at the height of the bad old days , when lead exposure was presumably driving increases, how large were the annual increases?

  5. Justin

    And it’s mostly young black men getting whacked so… no worries for me!

    This is funny.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/rap-industry-leaders-say-hip-hop-not-scapegoat-growing-violence-rcna58108

    “A lot of these kids lost their parents, their actual parents, to the war on drugs, the war on crime,” he said. “Their parents were taken away from the home, murdered, locked up, addicted, not there. And you have a lot of kids that raised themselves, they were raised by grandparents who couldn’t really do it the right way. Friends of the family, the brothers and sisters, uncles, aunties — like you have a broken community.”

    I guess there can be a debate on why these “parents” were so broken. But no one really has a solution. It’s something people have to do for themselves. Oh well. If we give them money will they promise to stop killing each other? 😂

  6. Justin

    https://whnt.com/news/national/covington-priest-assistant-missing-as-police-investigate-two-people-found-burned-beyond-recognition/

    This isn’t one of those extra pandemic murders so it’s ok. This is a normal murder within the annual average.

    Neighbors believe Prats and Father Young were murdered by Antonio Tyson, who was arrested by Covington police Monday on first-degree murder and second-degree kidnapping charges. “He’s supposed to have gotten out of prison this last August for rape, and he’s running around the streets now,” Richard said. “That should not be.”

    Maybe this guy was abused by the priest.

  7. Stacey Franklin

    My cousin could truly receive money in their spare time on their laptop. their best friend had been doing this 4 only about 12 months and by now cleared the debt. in their mini mansion and bought a great Car.

    That is what we do..

    1. KawSunflower

      Doctors used to mostly warn pregnant women about changing litter boxes due to the possibility of contracting toxoplasmosis - now wondering how long it has taken for the disease to reach this level in the wild.

  8. BobPM2

    Carl Rove preached that you should attack your opponent's strength and proceeded to Swift Boat John Kerry. D's should have used this stategy in the election against the alleged law and order advantage held by Republicans. Accordingly, how about:

    There was a massive gun murder increase under Trump caused by the lax gun laws in red states (Abbott in Texas) and the massive increase on gun sales during Trump's administration (over 40%).

    1. KawSunflower

      Democrats do need to do this, repeatedly, (but not at full tilt, like their people). Being made to appear defensive isn't a good look, but not being assertive enough seems to be our party's default, even if it's just being more polite.

      And when they announce that they are going to investigate misuses of pandemic funds, why don't we immediately call out what DeSantis & Abbott have done with theirs? And I almost forgot - the Alabama governor also decided that she had other priorities for that federal.money.

  9. humanchild66

    It's very clear that lingering effects of Obamacare, combined with Hillary's emails, Faucci's reversal on masking, and anticipation of how Biden was going to steal the election and raise gas prices all caused illegal immigrants to commit more murders.

    No, seriously. This is (horrifying and) interesting. I'd like to understand this.

Comments are closed.