Here are EV sales through January:
Despite some gloomy headlines, sales of EVs have actually kept up their trend growth lately. This becomes clear when you use a 3-month rolling average to smooth out the monthly volatility.
However, there was a big drop in January, which was down 35% from December. A January decline is normal, but it's usually in the neighborhood of 10% or so. This is probably a blip, but we won't know for sure until summer.
We also can tell if it was sales or not if inventories spiked by the same amount.
(They didn't)
Might have more to do with Mancini insistence on the American parts guidelines for tax deductions. Can’t buy much if you merely want a car unless your willing to give the Musk-rat money, which I am not.
The oil industry trade groups have really been pushing the 'death of EVs' narrative over the last few months and the media has been eager to spread the deception.
We should allow the import of EVs made in China. That'll spike up sales volumes.
Methinks all these concerns about "Chinese control of our vehicles" are a tad overblown.
I have an "old" (more than ten years old) gas engine car, and have not yet looked into options for my next vehicle. So I remain a bit confused by the terminology and evolving technology of EVs.
Some references to "EVs" appear to be strictly talking about all-electric cars (with no gas engine). Other conversations about "EVs" seem to incorporate hybrids. I am not certain what Kevin is referring to in his graph, but I suspect it's the "pure" EVs.
But my own inclination would be to seek out a hybrid. That option seems like a sensible starting point for a transition into a new technology.
Based on my very limited reading on the topic, pure EVs appear to involve inevitable headaches at this point in time. Charging stations remain limited or suboptimal, home-charging options are not available for all, long distance driving will be risky and will require a lot of research just to know where to find a charging station, and Elon Musk just does not strike me as a reliable or emotionally stable individual (though I realize that Teslas are not the only option).
I am fine with Biden pushing EVs (though I believe he has scaled back a bit on that push), and I am in favor of his federal legislation helping to promote the technology.
But I continue to wonder where Hybrids fit in. A rush for all-electric cars strikes me as potentially counter-productive. Updating and maintaining an infrastructure for a new technology takes time. There will be unexpected delays along the way. That's just the way it is. And if people are rushed into EVs and find out that the experience is clearly inferior to, or simply less convenient than, their earlier vehicles, the backlash could be brutal.
We can talk about four classes of vehicles: (1) Internal Combustion only, (2) Hybrids with a small battery and medium electric motor that can regenerate energy when slowing down and reuse that energy to get moving again, (3) Plug-In Hybrids with medium-sized batteries and big enough motors to have reasonable all-electric performance, short all-electric range (like 50 miles), and an internal combustion engine that can take the car further once the battery is depleted, and (4) fully-electric vehicles that have no internal combustion engine (ICE).
Internal combustion engines are large, heavy, complicated, and require maintenance (oil changes, and tune-ups, mostly). Batteries are heavy and very expensive. A plug-in hybrid can go all-electric for shorter trips, which is good for your wallet as well as the environment, and use the ICE for longer trips, so there’s no range anxiety. But it still has the maintenance requirements of an ICE, and the batteries have to haul around the ICE and its fuel when it’s in electric mode, and the ICE has to haul around the depleted batteries when it’s in fossil-fuel mode (but the batteries and motor will enable it to get the advantages of a primary-ICE hybrid, that is reclaim energy when stopping, and turning that energy back into motion).
A plug-in hybrid may be the right choice for you, just be aware of the tradeoffs you’re making. Understand the MPG-E and the MPG-gas you can expect from the vehicle in both modes.
I have two cars, an impractical but very fun sporty 2-seat convertible that turns 21 some time this year, and a practical raised wagon that’s 10 years old. I could see other families having one pure-battery car and one ICE vehicle, and drivers pick the vehicle appropriate for the drive at hand. But vehicles are large and expensive, so this strategy is not for everyone.
thanks, good info.
Excellent, except for the part about IC engines needing tune-ups.
From the beginning up to some decades ago their ignition systems were mechanical/electric. Points (spinning electrical contacts) wore out and got out of adjustment. The other half of the contact in the distributor (one contact per cylinder) wore out too. Spark plugs lasted about 10K miles. Hence, tune-ups.
Then electronics and computers stepped in and all the bits last forever until they don't. And spark plugs also last forever until they don't. Replacing them after maybe 60K miles will insure that they are good. Consult your car's manual. Your mileage may vary.
If your state has annual emissions inspections any related bits not working right will probably be detected even if you haven't noticed anything. There are 13 states with no mechanical or emissions testing, and a few of them are non-stupid states like WA and MN, surprisingly.
We had a a Chevy Volt plug in hybrid first, then after nearly 100,000 miles traded it in for an all electric Chevy Bolt. We still have an IC car we use for trips, but we love the power, low cost, and minimal maintenance of the Bolt for use around town. A range of 200 to 300 miles means no range anxiety when driving locally. Charging at home costs us the equivalent of $0.80/gallon, but charging at commercial stations typically costs much closer to what it would cost to buy gas to go the same distance.
This is happening whether rationally planned or not. In fact, it will probably unfold exactly how every industry in America has, haphazardly and focused on profit. And the rural areas will lag as usual, incensing their ire even further. But there's no stopping it.
For perspective, new car sales are over a million a month so EV sales have yet to hit 10% market share.
Change in incentives and draw down of Covid savings means a drop off in rate of growth of EV sales. Also, Musk is saying Tesla is going to cut prices...so...
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-says-cheaper-tesla-coming-2025/
Just FYI, some of the best deals are from Hertz as they unload their electric fleet. The downside to electric, for now, is the immediate depreciation which is larger than with ICE.
Also, don't buy Toyotas. They keep reiterating their intention to slow the transition away from ICE.
Frankly, I think Toyota is playing the smart game. EV adoption has been limited to a few areas in the US so far (hello California). Roll out is stagnant in all the areas you would expect, in fact there are reports that chargers are being sabotaged.
It really comes down to lifestyle choice. We just bought a hybrid and will buy another next year. I don't need the ego rush of a Tesla in my driveway and interest in sitting around at a charging station is nil. So, hybrid it is for us until the next step in technology arrives.
Honestly, I think pols are missing the boat in not requiring all rental fleets to be hybrid.
I'm buying one this year but can fully understand someone not doing it. It is more expensive and the fact that the good ones (and non-Tesla ones) fall outside the tax deduction now will probably stop more people than you'd think.
Still, I am salivating at the thought of escaping the internal combustion engine, not only for the lack of immediate pollution, but also for all the maintenance an IC engine takes. Plus being able to "fill up" at home instead of braving the line at the Costco.
If you buy an EV in December, you can file your taxes in January and get a $7500 tax credit in a couple of months. If you buy in January, you wait another year for the credit. It's a good reason to shift a planned purchase forward into December and could account for some of the January drop in sales.
Anybody that thinks ev sales have slowed down hasn't tried to charge at an electrify america pump recently. The number of new EVs has greatly outpaced the number of new public charging locations.
[Edit: also Ford, GM, and Hundai endorsing tesla as the north American charging standard has muddied the water. The only real problem with CCS is there aren't enough pumps]
I think the public relations department named Inflation Reduction Act (probably "Green New Deal Very Lite" was rejected) has a lot of money for EV charging sites.
The BetaMax vs VHS problem was stupidly recreated with Tesla vs everyone else EV charging but I guess that's being addressed - slowly. In the EU too. Also Tesla chargers tended to actually work. There is also the issue of different cars being able to be charged at different rates, and different public chargers having different capabilities too. Of course none of that matters if it's an around town car and you are charging it in your garage overnight.