According to a new poll, Donald Trump is not very popular these days among Republicans:
His post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
A clear majority of primary voters under 35 years old, 64 percent, as well as 65 percent of those with at least a college degree — a leading indicator of political preferences inside the donor class — told pollsters they would vote against Mr. Trump in a presidential primary.
Hmmm. Joe Biden isn't all that popular among Democrats, either. But at least this explains why Biden is still ahead of Trump in straw polls. It's all a question of who's least popular, not most popular.
Trumps unpopularity with his party is of a very different nature than Biden's. Trump is unpopular for what he did (the negatives, that is), while Biden's unpopularity is due to what he didn't do, not that he could have, which most voters don't evaluate with any realism anyway.
Trump did much more of what his party wanted, given that he had the total support of his party while they were in control. If he hadn't focused so much on seeking his autocratic personal objectives, he would be wildly popular within his party. But his problem is of his own making. Biden, OTOH, has been the victim of circumstances beyond his control. Unfortunately, voters seldom pay any attention to counterfactuals--what could have been different. They only know they're disappointed in the outcomes, so they demand change.
Imagine if Trump took his mandate as an outsider and actually focused on lowering prescription prices and massive infrastructure as he promised. He wasted a historic opportunity. I think most people would have even forgiven his crass persona if he delivered solid results. And it's not like he'd have to do much himself - Operation Warp Speed was a huge success, and he clearly knew nothing about vaccines or public health.
I had grudging respect for him myself during the GOP primaries. Sure, he's an imbecile, but he basically destroyed the entire GOP bench, including the Bush dynasty.
And actually made others, like Ted Cruz, abjectly humiliate themselves in order to show their loyalty. Trump's ability to get grown-ass men to completely debase themselves in ridiculous displays of fealty is truly extraordinary. I'm also thinking of Chris Christie, who hates Trump, admits that Trump probably gave him Covid knowing he was a high-risk individual, but couldn't bring himself to say he wouldn't vote for him again. It's absolutely insane.
Same as the Arizona Speaker of the House. He testified against Trump highlighting the ways in which he thinks Trump broke the law and tried to steal the election, but would still vote for him if he is the candidate. It's an absolutely bonkers mentality.
Trump's followers are insane, which I think is what everyone is really afraid of.
ted cruz is a sniveling coward. he humiliates himself pretty much any time he opens his mouth.
If Trump had tried to do anything that actually benefitted the unwashed masses, he would have faced the same pushback from the Republican mainstream that a Democrat would.
i'm not so sure. and even if he lost half the republican congressional contingent, he would have more than made up for it by picking up democratic votes.
my greatest fear in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 election was that he would play the outsider card, doing just enough domestically to weaken the resolve of democratic opposition while holding the majority of his base and cruise to reelection in 2020. of course as we know, he did the exact opposite.
It all started to turn when the alt-left achieved its 2nd willenium long dream of ending the war in Afghanistan. That a neoliberal stooge of Big Personal Debt like joebiden was the one to end it they could not abide. Nor the gutless Lamestream idiot man-children who amplified the alt-lefties.
Progressive Twitter may be sore at Joe because of purported failings, but color me skeptical that's the reason he's low in polls of Democrats. My sense is that, to the extent his numbers have slipped with Democrats, it's mostly for the same reason(s) his numbers have slumped in general: the living standards of most Americans have been crimped because of falling real wages, and they get reminded of this every time they fill up the tank.
(Gas prices are dropping, but probably not by enough yet, and in any event this will take time to filter into the polls).
Also, Biden has a lot more accomplishments than Trump: ended the Afghanistan quagmire, repaired frayed ties with allies, resolute response to Russian invasion, major infrastructure bill, rapid pace of federal judicial appointments, major covid relief bill, hottest job market in decades, 93% reduction in covid deaths since taking office, etc.
Reagan was a political deadman walking in 1982, we were told.
Agree about Biden’s accomplishments, which also include improvements to ACA and the unfortunately short-lived expanded Child Tax Credit.
Agree with this, but I would add that there is also a difference in terms of policy support.
Republicans who can't stand Trump do so for personal reasons. They hate his narcissism, his penchant for breaking laws, etc., but on policy issues, they agree with him close to a 100%. Cheney is the best example of this. She hates the man, but yet voted for Trump policies close to 95% of the time, which is higher than even some of Trump's most loyal flunkies.
For Biden it's the opposite. At the personal level no one truly dislikes him, but on policies there can be quite a bit of disagreement.
Trump doesn't need to convince his base nor his party about what policies to pursue, Biden does.
I've always been a bit of a soft Dem myself - mostly voting against the GOP than wholeheartedly supporting the Democratic ticket. But living in a progressive city where no problem can be solved without "looking in the root cause of XYZ" and the endless inaction and performative displays of wonderfulness are pushing me further and further away. At this point the only thing that would make me vote in 2024 is to cast a ballot against Trump.
Is the age old story of: Biden loses to “generic opponent,” but wins against any named Rep (or Dem).
Fact-free speculation follows:
R-leaning, Dissatisfied with Trump:
Base - still like his “message,” afraid he can’t win (DeSantistheSavior?)
Middle - I think I heard he’s a fascist, whatever that means.
L-leaning, Dissatisfied with Biden:
Base - also fear his electability, please pick someone else, younger, more left, less white
Middle - I don’t like the guy in power (ever). I like to complain and am bored, who’s next?
Is Republican base’s dissatisfaction with Trump more about his perceived inability to win, but they might still be inclined to follow a generally dumb-Right populist saying trollish things about elites, lefties, minorities, etc. (AKA the Trump platform).
Whereas the more mushy-middle Republicans (do they even vote in primaries?) might have been swayed by the 6+ years of daily hysteria and garment rending by the leftish part of the media about TrumpTheHitlerFascist overthrowing and violating our precious LadyLiberty.
But dissatisfaction with Biden from the mushy middle is just general grousing, bog-standard annoyance with the status-quo because they’re told every day everything sucks, and always say they are unhappy with politicians (while understanding nothing of policy or politics). So, a mile wide and an inch deep. Nobody cares much about Biden, understandably. A leftie base will still obviously vote for him, but are unhappy with him now hoping the Dem establishment will dump him before/during the primaries? (Could that even happened?)
The unpopularity of both Trump and Biden should lead to a political reset, with much-needed younger blood rising to the top in both parties. Biden needs to announce he won’t run in 2024, either before the midterms or shortly thereafter. Dems need to select people other that Pelosi or Schumer as leader (probably minority leaders) after the midterms. I suspect Trump will revert to king-maker to maintain relevance and back DeSantis, claiming he made DeSantis what he is, and basking in that glory.
The problem is that the bench of GQP up-and-comers is populated with even crazier, and possibly more dangerous, nutjobs than Trump, while the Dems have a lot of good people, but who have little or no name recognition outside their districts/states/cable news shows.
Listen, dude, stop commenting & just focus on a way of buying Always On Camera's gameworn underclothes.
Biden needs to announce he won’t run in 2024, either before the midterms or shortly thereafter.
No, he doesn't "need" to do this. If the peace/prosperity index is strong in 2024, Joe will be fine. And moreover Democrats would be mad to throw away the advantage of incumbency (especially given the strong possibility that Kamala Harris—an Electoral College disaster waiting to happen if ever there was one—might well get the nomination).
If the peace/prosperity index isn't fine, Democrats will probably lose the White House no matter who is the nominee.
And if some Democrat is stupid enough to mount a nomination challenge to Joe in the primaries, well, DeSantis or Trump might as well start picking out West Wing stationery.
I do think if he secures a second term, Joe Biden should consider resigning after the 2026 midterms, though.
Actually, I believe that Gain Newsom could primary Joe Biden and win
He's NOT as liberal as many believe and runs a "semi" country given CA's GDP.
He just has to APPEAR as though he is moving to the center to get hesitant DEMs to vote for him
He's young, stylish, has the experience. Managed COVID as well as could be expected. He's already visited the border with Mexico I believe.
He could nominate either Kamala to serve as VP or my personal choice would be Katie Porter.
I just want a younger candidate and given a choice between a Gov of CA and a former VP (as in Harris) I'd take the Governor. I'm not thrilled with Harris but given the opportunity to shine, she seems to have withdrawn from public view. She needs to create and control her narrative.
I'd love to think the country is capable of electing a Kennedyesque blue state liberal as president. But I doubt the US of 2024 is that country. Stupidly, many up-for-grabs voters are turned off by what they perceive as "elitism" or an "out of touch" vibe. Maybe I'm judging Newsom (who I'm a big fan of) wrongly.* But I doubt it. I believe the same thing is true of Harris. And Hillary. And John Kerry. And Al Gore. And Michael Dukakis. Pelosi's numbers nationally are awful (unfairly in my view, but that's life). The presidency goes through the blue collarish suburbs in purple states. And those folks want a president they can have a beer with. And yes, again, that's stupid of them. But I don't make the rules. So please, no nominees from San Francisco or Boston, at least for a few cycles.
It's not really an ideological thing, either. Notice I don't put Bernie in the above category. He's got unkempt hair and a strong Brooklyn twang. People perceive he's real, and I think he likely would've beaten Trump. Fetterman's got that good vibe, too. So does NYC Mayor Adams. And Stacey Abrams. Obama had it, too, to a degree, and Bill Clinton did, too, hugely so. And Tammy Duckworth. And yes, Scranton Joe's got that common touch, as well. (I think it's possible AOC might have it, too).
Democrats have a strong bench.
*I loved that spot Newsom ran in Florida. Democrats are hungering for a fighter. For similar reasons Pete Buttigieg is likewise (in contrast to 2 years ago) getting strong reviews these days among a lot of lefties (he's goes on Fox and eviscerates those assholes). But lefties like me aren't the type of voters Democrats need to convince in 2024.
She's simply terrible in public, incapable of anything but prepared remarks.
Sure they disapprove: but will they vote for him against Biden? In a heartbeat. I feel polls are less than useless these days esp. so far out from the election AND primaries.
I don't get these types of stories. Just using the data in the NYT article:
1. Polls show Trump winning the primary by a landslide.
2. Article says "Among Republicans who said they plan to vote against Mr. Trump in a primary, 32 percent said the former president’s actions threatened American democracy." In other words, 84% of Republicans do not consider Trump a threat to democracy.
3. In fact, only "33 percent [of those who would vote against him in a primary] said they had an unfavorable view." So that same 84% view Trump favorably. (I'm going out on a limb here and assuming that believing a person to be a threat to democracy is considered an "unfavorable view" in the United States...so that these "32%" and "33%" groups are the same people.)
Sounds like overwhelming support to me, but the headline is "Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind" (and the webpage title is "Trump Loses Support of Half of GOP Voters") and even Kevin doesn't call BS
It's not that they don't view him as a threat to democracy, it's that they don't think destroying democracy is a bad thing, something older DC Democrats are congenitally incapable of understanding.
I don't think that's right. For 20 years, they've had their heads filled on a nightly basis with outrage over Democrats stealing elections, piped through Fox News. Keven has mentioned this often. The inevitable result is that they see actions like Trump's as stealing back democracy from the perfidious Democrats.
You can shout "no evidence" all you want. The vast majority of humans don't make decisions based on evidence. They make decisions based on tribal affiliation and then choose the evidence that fits. That's true for Progressives just as much as it is for Trumpists.
Nothing says democracy like preventing people from voting, which conservatives have done since the dawn of time.
Conservatism isn't a fluke of circumstances, it's an ecological niche based on injuring others in an indirect way you can say you aren't responsible for because you're serving a higher purpose.
"a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination."
I'll believe that when I see it. Around here, Republicans would vote for a doorknob before they'd vote for a Democrat.