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Retail federation admits its shoplifting number was ridiculous

From Reuters:

The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that "organized retail crime" accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.

....The NRF's claim that organized retail crime accounted for "nearly half" of inventory losses was repeated in multiple media reports on the issue. The NRF has cited growing rates of crime in calls for Congress to pass new laws, including proposed legislation that would broaden the scope of offenses considered “organized” crime and increase potential penalties.

This was always laughably ridiculous. The NRF's own reports have consistently reported that all shoplifting is responsible for only about a third of inventory shrink. Organized gangs are responsible for a fraction of that. At a guess, they account for 2-3% of inventory shrink, a number that hasn't changed much over the past decade.

America is prone to periodic media-driven panics. Preschool satanic rituals. Frivolous lawsuits. Video games. Social media. CRT. Whenever one of them takes off, there's suddenly an explosion of evidence for it—and it's the same for shoplifting gangs. News networks play the same few video clips over and over. CEOs use it as a handy excuse for weak earnings reports. Experts are trotted out to "explain" what's happening. We're constantly reminded that most shoplifting isn't reported, as if that hasn't always been the case. And lobbying groups like the NRF cite transparently idiotic "facts" about the skyrocketing scope of the problem.

Eventually time passes and we all realize we overreacted. But while the panic is in high gear we're utterly convinced by the manufactured evidence tossed in our faces.

Shoplifting is a problem. Does anyone deny it? But it's been a problem for a long time and isn't much different today than it was a decade ago.

17 thoughts on “Retail federation admits its shoplifting number was ridiculous

  1. different_name

    But while the panic is in high gear we're utterly convinced by the manufactured evidence tossed in our faces.

    That's remarkably gentle.

    As I see it, an industry group lied their asses off to deflect blame in a politically charged way. Journalists are incapable of pushing back for multiple reasons, so the farce is uncritically vomited to the public. And whatever you can say about people's trust in the media, they're soaking in it, and people do believe it.

    If you want more honest news, just go direct to PRWire and skip the legacy media. You'll get the same lies, just not laundered through "professional journalists".

    1. ColBatGuano

      The media in my town used it as a cudgel to beat up on the city council for having the gall to pass a tax on big corporations.

    2. Salamander

      Yes, And it's not without consequences. Just last week, an apparent shoplifter was shot dead in Albuquerque. I don't think he was even black.

  2. dspcole

    If shoplifting accounts for only 1/3 of inventory shrink, what causes the other 2/3? Maybe I’m not familiar with the term.

  3. D_Ohrk_E1

    It was a convenient narrative for retailers whose CEOs made poor decisions or failed to understand and respond to the long-term market trends just at a time when BLM and antifa had gained national prominence. It's exactly what you'd expect from conservative business folks.

  4. stilesroasters

    I’m quite certain that all this is true, but why the heck are so many urban pharmacies turning into a collection of lockboxes?

    Perhaps it’s as simple as some combination of Covid and accountants led to lockboxes being preferable to additional staff/guards.

    1. Altoid

      On the evidence of a 10,000 sq ft Walgreens near me where the retail floor has at most 2 staff even available at any one time (doing a lot of running between the stock room and the registers), and the pharmacy seems to usually have one or two, I'd vote for the accountants having the say here. It's a quiet town, though, so the doors are actually unlocked and the shelves are stocked and open.

      Just yesterday, in a Canadian city, I needed to stop in at a cell phone/isp outlet and had to buzz in over the intercom so the agent could personally come down and open the door to let me in. That was common 3 years ago because of covid. But now it means that store too can stay open with one or maybe two staff there. I'd bet management is licking their chops thinking about those AI-enabled little R2D2s they're waiting for.

      1. TheMelancholyDonkey

        Stop blaming the accountants. We run the numbers, but are almost never the people who actually make decisions.

        1. Altoid

          Okay, but in context it meant "the suits," the way people will often point to "the bean-counters" to mean the same thing. Though that probably doesn't sit too well with you either. Anyway it's a figure of speech whose name I don't remember where one thing or group is used to represent another-- in this case, it's the group that the actual culprits will often point their fingers at when they need somebody to blame.

  5. Heysus

    My grocery store has security gates on all doors in and out and all the hard alcohol is locked up at all grocery stores. I feel like a thief when I go to the store and am almost afraid to touch the veg that I am going to buy. What have we come to???
    And, Walmart and the other grocery stores are adding almost all self check out.
    Weird and what I heard is that there is more theft with self check.... Go figure.

  6. peterlorre

    “Ms. Jones? Can you explain why Union Carbide is reporting a 10% revenue decline year over year?”

    “Sadly, one of the preschoolers in finance, is a satanist. All of that money was redirected from R&D directly to the Dark Lord himself. Our shareholders deserve a more concrete return than the abstract value added to the company for allying early with the Pale Fortress of Pandemonium.”

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