Here is the latest release of the data on retail sales:
There's nothing much to report, literally. Retail sales growth has been almost completely flat since February and it continued that trend in August, rising only 0.7% from the previous month on an annualized basis.
This suggests that Americans are on a fairly even keel these days. They aren't worried enough about inflation to change their buying habits, but they aren't confident enough to go on a buying spree either.
But the Fed is not quite sure yet, of course.
I'm guessing this corpse, sorry, economy will take another 150 points before we're sure it is dead.
Actually real sales rose .6% which is pretty solid. I suspect real pce will have its best month since April.
I know Kevin and others insist that the stimulus/covid package in early 2021 is a significant cause of inflation 12 and even 18 months later, but I disagree. I remember in 1991, Bush got a stimulus package passed to help the economy and retail sales looked a lot like the chart above. Retail sails went up and then back down. And that was about all that happened.
Early 2021 was different in that a lot of people decided to put the epidemic behind them and start spending again, but I am not surprised that retail sales look like Kevin shows. There was blip and then everything was steady (in real terms).
I honestly don't think the current inflation has much to do with that stimulus. I don't even thing the inflation last fall had much to to with it. It was just CEOs showing that, in general, they have very little business acumen and closing lots of plants they shouldn't have.