The New York Times reports that RFK Jr. is unlikely to qualify for the presidential debate later this month. However:
In at least one respect, Mr. Kennedy has reason for optimism. Recent polling has positioned Mr. Kennedy closer to qualifying for the debate stage than any third-party candidate in more than three decades. Mr. Kennedy must earn at least 15 percent support in four approved national polls by June 20 to qualify for the debate. He currently has three of those qualifying polls, one from CNN, one from Quinnipiac University and one from Marquette University Law School.
Seriously? Yes: These polls do indeed place RFK Jr. above 15%. CNN has him at 16% and the other two have him at 16% and 17%.
Is this nuts, or am I nuts?¹ RFK Jr. can't possibly be seriously supported by one out of six of Americans, can he? My favorite poll, YouGov, puts him at 4%. What accounts for such a huge difference?
The answer is surprising: According to a New York Times test, it depends on question order:
- If you ask first about Biden vs. Trump and then about all the other candidates, RFK Jr. does well.
- If you ask first about all the candidates together, RFK Jr. does poorly.
Strangely enough, this seems to be true. YouGov has a single question that asks about all the candidates and leaves it at that. The other three all ask about Biden vs. Trump first and only then ask about RFK Jr. and the others. This makes a difference of upwards of ten points in the results for RFK.
So what's the real number? No one knows. But the upshot is that people often support third-party contenders simply to show disgruntlement with the major party candidates. When Election Day rolls around, they've almost all settled down and end up voting for one of the main candidates. Historically, this has been almost universally true.
So the good news is that RFK Jr. probably doesn't really have much support, and the support he does have pulls votes away from Trump a little more than Biden. There's no need to panic.
¹These are not mutually exclusive, of course.
It's because a lot of people who grew up on Ratatouille think a brain worm sounds cool.
+1
Put some basil in that shit.
yeah well on the debate stage it will be two against one, with kennedy and trump going after biden. its gonna be a shitshow.
Do you seriously believe Trump will go through with debates?
Yeah, I'd put pretty good money on Trump pulling out for any number of excuses. I'm kinda surprised that isn't everyone's baseline assumption.
Biased moderator, rigged rules, Biden won't take a drug test, whatever.
If Kennedy qualifies, I assume Trump would be all in. Two people spewing lies and hatred, directed at Joe Biden. Trump isn’t missing that spectacle.
Does it matter? If RFK Jr's on stage, it'll look like your Average Everyday Joe next to two crazy men ranting about personal grievances and making bizarre claims.
At some point, the two crazy men start yelling at each other and lose it. After this, Biden's poll numbers will shoot up and Biden/Harris should just walk away from any other debates.
Like! I can't vouch for the plausibility, but it's a rosy scenario that I approve.
This has been today's "That Thing You're Worried About (RFK Jr. spoiling the election)? It's Not a Big Deal to Me, Kevin Drum".
It's as if acting as the 'net's "calm down. breathe!" site is something you disapprove of.
noooooo .... you really think rfk jr.'s internal polling showing that he's clearly the next president of the united states might be off a tad or two?
Would Trump make an obnoxious idiot of himself in a debate against Biden? Of course. Would this lose any support for him? No. He debated Hillary and the media mostly concluded that he lost badly but he still won the electoral college.
If moderators call out Trump's lies the result might be different, but that would be considered taking sides. So what will probably happen will be two sides making claims, which is what has been happening all along. Swing voters are evidently not capable of evaluating themselves what is true and what is not, as Kevin's examples in a previous post show. Trump will say inflation is 50% and many people will believe him - they already think this despite actual data.
To have a real debate both sides have to respect facts. That is not what Republicans do.
2024 Trump is not the same guy as 2016 Trump. Just saying, this guy is off the reservation crazy with no one to serve as guardrails and no ability to control himself. All of his legal cases reflect this: directing lawyers to do what he wants as opposed to what's in his best interests.
His VP choice is enamored with Tucker.
https://newrepublic.com/post/182215/robert-f-kennedy-jr-running-mate-nicole-shanahan-same-page-tucker-carlson
"When Election Day rolls around, they've almost all settled down and end up voting for one of the main candidates. Historically, this has been almost universally true."
Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992 and that was after he dropped out of the race for several months.
Yes, but he had polled at 39% in June, and after dropping out, he re-entered the race on October 1, and campaigned until the election a month later. The loss of about half of a third-party candidate's support over a campaign is about par for the course.
I think Kennedy's support is just a demonstration of how little attention people are paying to the election in June.
Were those three polls taken before or after we heard about the brain worm?