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Russia wants a free path to Crimea

Published on 29 Comments on Russia wants a free path to Crimea

The Russians must think they're doing pretty well in their war for the Donbas region in Ukraine:

In recent months, Russian forces have concentrated their assault on eastern Ukraine, which by all indications Russia appears determined to annex as it did Crimea in 2014. But on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov told the Russian state news agency that Moscow was now casting its gaze on a swath of Ukraine’s south, as well, specifically naming the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as well as “a number of other territories.”

Here's a map:

Right now the Russian army is concentrated in the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, but Zaporizhia and Kherson are obvious targets that would allow Russia to control territory all the way down to Crimea.

As for "a number of other territories," I suppose it would make sense to keep moving west in order to completely control access to the Black Sea. Beyond that, who knows?

29 thoughts on “Russia wants a free path to Crimea”

  1. Anandakos

    WHY does the US Air Force not Yamamoto that imperialist pig when he leaves the country? As I understand it, we have missiles which can be launched from a "stand-off" platform as much as seventy or eighty miles from the target. I'll bet the F-35's could get that close to The Impaler's plane without the Russians having a clue. Fire from ahead to maximize the relative closing velocity and BOOM! No Vlad.

    2. rick_jones

      And where exactly might Putin travel overseas where he would be within plausible deniability range of an F-35? Which seventy to eighty mile range air to air missile can the F-35 carry internally and so maintain “stealth?”

    1. cld

      And paint the missiles black so no one can see them coming, then say it was a meteor. Russians are terrified of meteors.

  5. sturestahle

    Russian state controlled news agency RIA Novosti published an article April 4 by Timofej Sergejtsev a political ideologist close to Putin.
    The article equals all Ukrainians to Nazis claiming they have to be rooted out in order protect Russia and the Russian minority living in Ukraine.
    The article openly advocated ethnic cleansing and genocide. The plan is to split up Ukraine into a part engulfed by Russia cleansed from Ukrainians and a western part left to Ukrainians but “pacified” and controlled by Russia
    An article like this isn’t published in Russia if it isn’t approved by Putin
    You really need to read this one in order to understand what Ukrainians are up against. This narrative is approved by the majority in Russia
    https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

  6. TheMelancholyDonkey

    At the rate Russia's invasion is making progress, they'll have all of the territory sometime around 2032.

  7. D_Ohrk_E1

    All within the last few days, Ukraine has more or less made Antonovskiy Bridge impossible to use and are working on blocking access via Nova Kakhovka road over the dam, using HIMARS. Once both crossings are unusable, Russian logistics is jammed in a very big way. They do not control any overland area connected to the west side of the Dnipro River. The nearest crossing is at Zaporizhia and that's under control of Ukraine.

    Russians in and around the city of Kherson will be physically trapped. Russia has no means to "take the south", except for amphibious landings. Except of course, Russian navy is (rightfully so) scared shitless by HIMARS, M777s, Harpoons, and Neptunes. It would be suicide for the Russian navy to attempt such an attack via sea and I don't think they're that stupid.

    I'm sure Ukraine knows how important Zaporizhia is. It is their strategy, after all, to funnel Russian forces through Zaporizhia if they want to supply their forces in Kherson. Will Russia take the bait? I think they will sacrifice all of their cannon fodder for a first attempt.

  8. Justin

    Let’s not forget the real issue.

    Three Ukrainians were killed Wednesday during a Russian airstrike, including a 13-year-old boy who was seen in harrowing images dead on the ground as his father gripped his lifeless hand.

    Russians are worse than alqaeda, Isis, and any other country in the world. Pure evil.

  9. jvoe

    I would rephrase "Putin wants a war to distract his population from the disastrous state of his leadership. Russians go along because they tend toward war as an expression of nationalism, their media is completely controlled by Putin, or they are afraid to do anything to stop it."

    1. Bardi

      Putin has the American equivalent of QAnon and Faux without CNN and MSMBC. The average Russian only knows what they say.
      A wakeup call would be to re-sculpt the Moscow/Kremlin skyline, even in a small way.

  10. jte21

    Putin is essentially trying to re-annex portions of eastern Ukraine that Imperial Russia controlled between the 18th century and the Revolution, including Crimea and most of the Black Sea coastline, and reunite them with Belarus and the rest of Russia. He sees this as resurrecting, if not the glory of the USSR, then at least the glory of the Russian Empire in its 18th-19th heyday as a major European power.

    1. spatrick

      The map with this link shows a direct correlation between the predominate Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and what the Russians have conquered so far. Their aims should be obvious.

  12. Joseph Harbin

    The Russian military has performed terribly so far, but the good guys need to put more pressure on Putin. He needs to be on the defensive and paying a price for his disastrous invasion. The "long war" strategy works better for Putin, who is hoping for a change in leadership in the US. That could start after November. Already the GOP fifth column are talking about defunding support for Ukraine if the GOP takes Congress. America First really means Russia First.

    3. lawnorder

      Ukraine doesn't actually need the US. The countries of Western Europe (the EU and the UK) have a combined GDP more than ten times Russia's, and are firmly committed to supporting Ukraine for obvious selfish reasons. France and the UK by themselves can supply Ukraine with enough weaponry to bury the Russians, and neither country is dependent on Russian gas or oil..

  13. cld

    I have nothing to base this on but I have the impression Russia can keep this up through the end of August, or partly into September, then they start to crack up.

    Because their strategy is effectively human wave assaults and they'll start running out of humans.

    1. cld

      The Russian army is like something from five centuries ago, they are basically rounded up and whipped forward.

    2. lawnorder

      It also appears that they are using up both missiles and artillery shells faster than they can produce them.

  14. Donald Koelper

    In the face of misleading media headlines about Russian advances and occupation, I feel it's important to note that the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine actually peaked on March 24 and Ukrainian forces have since recaptured 40% of Russian-occupied territory. The recent Russian gains in the Donbas have been minimal and were achieved at great cost in men and material. And right now in southern Ukraine, well, a competent Russian commander would realize that he has at least 10 battalion tactical groups (10 BTGs = about 20,000 troops) in a terribly exposed position north of the Dnipro River in and around Kherson.

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