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Russian AA probably brought down Azerbaijani airline

Apparently the Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed yesterday was the victim of Russian anti-aircraft fire. The flight was headed from Baku to Grozny—a milk run of about 30 minutes—when it entered an area of drone conflict. Russian air defense was busy shooting down Ukrainian drones and an errant shot hit the plane.

However, Grozny refused permission for landing, so instead the plane wobbled across the Caspian Sea to Aktau. It almost made it, but lost control a few miles from the airport and crashed.

Why did Grozny refuse permission for an emergency landing when that was the flight's scheduled destination anyway? We don't know that yet.

33 thoughts on “Russian AA probably brought down Azerbaijani airline

  1. Altoid

    So the Russian AA is what early reports said was a "possible bird strike"? I think those reports also said something about weather at Grozny. But everything about this is still very murky, isn't it.

      1. DudePlayingDudeDisguisedAsAnotherDude

        I've been attacked by redwing blackbirds on my bicycle on a few occasions. They are pretty damn aggressive. I didn't sustain any shrapnel holes though.

  2. J. Frank Parnell

    The aircraft apparently lost most of its flight control systems. Modern fly by wire aircraft have three redundant electrical//hydraulic fight control systems, but no manual back up. The pilots were controlling the plane (barely) by varying thrust from the engines. The plane may have headed for Aktau in part because it is a more open flatter less populated area. It is interesting how far in front of the MSM the specialist aviation websites are on this story.

        1. Crissa

          One needs to connect items across the aircraft, the other is in the center of the mass. Which do you think is more difficult to protect from shrapnel?

          Also, nearly all of those cameras have radios that can independently contact ground stations.

          1. rick_jones

            Which ground stations? Most if not nearly all of its time in distress was over the Caspian Sea no?

            That said, nothing in that plane was protected against shrapnel. It was a civilian airliner. The/any Internet on the plane was just lucky.

            I have to wonder if the E-190 will be found to have had an unfortunate design situation where the redundancy “met”. Perhaps not unlike the DC-10 and Sioux City…

  3. golack

    Not sure if all flights were being diverted, or only that one. If there is anti-aircraft fire in the area, then the airport should have been closed.

    I have serious doubts about any Russian investigation. The preliminary reports are still, well, preliminary, but is doesn't look good for the Russian military.

    What ever happened, the pilots were heroes to get that plane to land at all, and not just crash. I fear they'll be scapegoated.

  4. KJK

    While a handful of birds are capable of flying that high, a bird strike at 30,000 is very unlikely, and would not result in the shrapnel holes described (unless they were hit by something like "Rodan" , "Mothra", or "Drogon"). The likely spoofing or jamming of GPS in the area would also not be helpful for the crew tying to fly the jet to safety.

    Given the war zone risks, it is a good thing that most Western commercial flight avoid Russian / Ukrainian airspace.

    1. KJK

      The Couch Fucker and his Orange Deity will blame war mongering Ukraine for launching those nasty drones at our innocent Russian allies. Those pet eating Haitian immigrants in Springfield OH are always a reliable MAGA scapegoat to blame.

  5. J. Frank Parnell

    This comes only a few days after an A/F-18 in the landing pattern behind its carrier was shot down in the Red Sea by a missile from an escorting cruiser. The crew saw the missile coming and were able to eject. A second A/F-18 was narrowly missed by a second missile. It feels like Skynet is starting to flex its muscles.

    1. KJK

      Likely the AA battery operators will be blamed and sent off to a Siberian gulag, though its the people in charge who allowed the aircraft to fly into a hostile war zone are the ones to blame.

      1. AnotherKevin

        Flying in hostile war zones is a core part of the job of carrier pilots; blaming someone for allowing such a thing would be silly. The IFF electronics on the planes/carrier should have distinguished friend from foe. I don't know enough to conclude who screwed up - pilot or cruiser AA.

        1. KJK

          I was referring to Russia not the US Navy, for which the aircraft suppose to be operating in a war zone. You would think that the IFF systems should have precluded the missile launch, so its likely some form of human error, mechanical error, or procedural error.

  6. rick_jones

    “Errant” implies hitting something which wasn’t the target. We have nothing to suggest it was errant or if it was aimed at the aircraft deliberately, if perhaps mistakenly.

    I’m not certain but I’m reasonably certain this makes the Russians the world leader in shooting down civilian airliners. I think their tally is three. Two more and they will make “ace” …

    1. J. Frank Parnell

      By comparison, the US has only shot down one airliner, but also one helicopter full of peacekeepers and most recently one of its own $73.000,000 fighters.

  7. Jasper_in_Boston

    Fuck. I'm supposed to be flying over Russian airspace next month (cuts a couple of hours off a transpacific flight). Should I be worried?

    1. radu

      No, you shouldn't--Ukrainian drones have not crossed the Urals. But it would be safe to not fly into (or over) parts of Russia within 1000km of Ukraine's border. A few rare drone strikes have happened at 1500km, Moscow and St. Pete fall (as well as Tatarstan, caucasus region etc) within that radius, so if you want to be exceedingly cautious that may be a factor too.

      The mystery to me is how an huge passenger jet can be confused with a drone that weighs 100 to 1000x as little. The radar trajectory also should have shown that it wasn't coming from the direction of Ukraine either.

      1. radu

        With that in mind, the Korean Air shot down near the Russian Far East (Kamchatka if memory serves) 4 decades ago during the Cold War wasn't in an active war zone either. Just idiot Soviet AA operators thinking America was out to destroy them. If this goes on too much longer, Russian AA operators may become equally paranoid, no drone threat necessary.

        1. golack

          That said, the Soviets who did not fire saved the world.

          The sub commander during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
          The colonel (?) who did not report a launch detection from their early warning system (it was a glitch).

        2. OwnedByTwoCats

          KAL 007 was downed by a missile fired by an interceptor jet, not from ground-based Anti-Aircraft fire. KAL 007 was off course, and within restricted Soviet airspace, The interceptor pilot misidentified the airliner as a US Spy Plane.

      2. Jasper_in_Boston

        I'm flying Hainan Airlines Beijing to Boston. I made sure I paid the premium for cancel-ability and date flexibility. But no, I don't think I need to worry. If it's one think Ivan knows, it's not to cross Xi, and my flight will be entering Siberia from Chinese airspace. So I should be ok. But it does give one pause.

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