Over at Politico, Sam Stein warns that the big Democratic stimulus bill might not do Democrats any good:
That was the conclusion of a trio of political scientists after examining the electoral ripples of the Obama stimulus seven years after it passed. Katherine Levine Einstein of Boston University, Kris‐Stella Trump of the University of Memphis and Vanessa Williamson of Brookings looked at the political fallout of that bill and concluded that it was, in fact, “null” — overwhelmed by the massive tides of party polarization.
....“This finding suggests that highly politicized spending can actually be counterproductive for an incumbent Democrat,” the study read. “Rather than being ‘unresponsive,’ conservative counties punished Democrats for the spending they received from the stimulus.”
Generally speaking, I agree that individuals are unlikely to remember the bennies they got from this bill for more than the few months that seem to be the extent of the average American's attention span. But that's not the right way to look at the political consequences of the stimulus.
First and foremost, the effect of the American Rescue Act will be to stimulate the economy. The effects of this will fade out in 2022, but they won't fade out completely. The result will be strong recovery from the pandemic in 2021 followed by solid growth throughout 2022—as you can see in the latest forecast from Goldman Sachs. That makes for a happy electorate, which in turn helps the governing party.
Second, the bennies from this bill extend beyond this year. Will anyone remember the $1,400 checks? Maybe not. But how about the big child tax credit? Or the big subsidy increase for Obamacare? Those are things that lots of registered voters will take advantage of in early 2022, precisely when you want everyone to be happy and contented with how the majority party is running things.
Obviously, this only makes a difference if Democrats loudly and continuously predict boom times for the next 18 months so that everyone knows exactly who deserves the credit for this utopian paradise they're living in.
It also depends on what else is happening in the world in the summer of 2022, but there's nothing anyone can do about that. For now, keeping the economy humming and making sure that people know who to credit for it—that's the ticket for political victory. So far it seems to be going pretty well.
Looking good to me. I am enjoying having you here by the way. And I love the kitties.
Yeah this looks like BS to me. First off, there's a difference between "null" and "overwhelmed"; something may have a significant -- very much non-null -- effect and yet be overwhelmed. Second -- and more important -- it's almost undisputed that the Obama stimulus was (1) way too small (thanks to Republicans), which reduced its economic benefits and (2) badly undersold by the Dems, which reduced its political benefits. And third, as is carefully subsumed in the nice generic term "polarization," the Republican Party basically went out of its mind with racism-- anybody remember the Obama-as-witch-doctor pictures? Michelle's "gorilla arms"? etc., etc., etc. -- and that was especially true for the residents of "conservative counties." If they were "punishing" Obama for anything, it most certainly was not for spending money on them.
So yeah, I'm happy to call BS on the whole thing.
Yes. The 'people' elected Trump and almost re-elected him. Depending on the same people's judgment to appreciate what you do for them is not likely to be very fruitful. When you have the opportunity, do what you think is best for the country and let the chips fall where they may.
Thanks for your comment. There's a problem, politically speaking, with deciding to "let the chips fall where they may". Namely, that your political opponents will be busy working to make the chips fall so that they benefit.
It's political malpractice to "let the chips fall where they may". If Dems have passed a major economic recovery bill (against unanimous GOP opposition), then Dems have a political obligation to claim credit for it...and to do so in such a way that most of the electorate hears the message.
... and there's another important thing the Dems have to pound on for the next 18 months. Not only do they need to keep reminding everybody what a great thing this was, but they also need to keep reminding everybody who voted against it. Straight down the party line, the Republicans tried to keep this relief from passing.
Every candidate needs to pound that fact loudly and frequently:
"Senator John Smith, your Republican Senator, voted AGAINST the relief we so desperately needed. Is that who you want representing you. I think not."
The people did not elect Trump, he lost in 2016 by almost 3 million votes.
In 2020 he failed to even get 47% of the vote, thus failing to cross a bar that even Romney managed.
Trumps only path to victory was voter suppression. That's why he is so upset about mail-in-ballots.
Yes, a large number of people did vote for Trump. But not a majority, not even close.
It didn't matter in size, 2 trillion wasn't enough either. Credit damage was going to take years and a 5 trillion dollar stimulus simply wasn't happening. Heck, the transfer part of the Biden covid plan in a 22 trillion dollar economy isn't that much larger.
The difference today is that real personal debt is down and credit markets aren't damaged. Get rid of Covid junk, pretty fast recovery. 2ndly, as I repeatedly said a few times, the Obama led turn to health care reform was unpopular. For many wwc unionists and small town supporters, they left the party.
Fuck whitey.
Without whitey, you don't have a strong party. Deal and accept.
+1
Also, how did they define "highly politicized" spending? because despite universal GOP opposition in cogress, this package is extremely popular with voters and even i believe a strong majority of republicans, along with support from gop governors and other local officials. The idea this package is a net negative for democrats in 2022 seems highly unlikely to me.
And what part of the Obama stimulus was "highly politicized"? Other than by Republicans making false claims?
Cash 4 Clunkers? Solyndra?
the fact is obama's plan was never this popular and WAS highly politicized with voters. it only had about 50% approval when it passed, mostly on partisan lines, and in 2010 a gallup poll showed only 25% of people said it worked. this bill is far less politicized by the metric of actual voter support.
My concern is that democrats blow the messaging. For example, on NPR today we had a GOP House rep talking about how the relief bill took "$36 billion" from Medicare, and the journalist didn't ask any questions about it but let him say it three times. So I looked it up to see if it was right. It was, because of PAYGO regulation.
However, $36 billion was almost the exact amount that had to be cut from Medicare when they passed the Trump tax cuts in 2017, and by an amazing coincidence, Congress decided that they would simply pass a bill to make sure it didn't happen. Which they will do this time I'm sure. But again, there was no push back by the reporter in pointing out that the Trump tax cuts did the same. If the Democrats don't control the messaging it won't matter if the economy is doing well, people will only remember they cut one of the programs they rely on (overlooking that the GOP REALLY wants to gut them).
Give me a break. Just say the Republicans hate America, love rich foreigners and are flooding the US with illegal migrants for rich. That would be enough.
@starbird2005
I heard that guy, too, and I also looked up what it means. Apparently it means nothing, as Congress will pass a waiver so Medicare doesn't get hurt. Dems will probably attach the waiver to a must-pass bill, and Republicans can either vote for it or shut down the government...again.
But I have to hand it to the GOP message machine for finding that little talking point and phrasing it just so. I follow this stuff obsessively and I didn't know about it. I don't blame the NPR interviewer for not knowing about it and in any case it's not their job to argue with or correct their subjects.
That interview really annoyed me too, the NPR interviewer was letting the GOP guy spout all sorts of nonsense argle-bargle.
Fwiw, I have GDP at 8-9% this year and 3-4% next year.
Why?
I honestly can't believe that in my lifetime the GOP have let themselves become -- very publicly -- the party of cop-killing and defunding the family.
The people who vote for Republicans think it was Republicans who got them their Social Security and the health insurance they got from their state exchanges.
Democrats have to massively over-sell anything to make the least impression.
Did most voters remember that Obama rescued the country from the Great Republican Recession? Nah, he was punished for doing it (or voters forgot that he had). .... By the way , for those “deficit hawks” (har har) out there: somebody on the tee-vee noted yesterday that Trump’s tax cut for himself and his buddies increased the federal debt by ...... brace yourselves...... about $2 trillion. ..... Guess caring about the cost of a bill depends on how the money is spent, not the impact on the debt.
And what part of the Obama stimulus was "highly politicized"? Other than by Republicans making false claims?
An expert study quoted by Politico? Pardon me while I yawn...