Passage of the American Rescue Plan will be a great win for President Biden and for progressives in general. However, everyone realizes that this is it, right? There might be another reconciliation bill later in the year, but aside from that Republicans will not allow anything more to pass and Democrats will not be able to eliminate the filibuster.
It doesn't matter how important something is or how strongly we fight for it. It just doesn't matter. So please, no stories about the "difficult path ahead" or any of that nonsense. Nothing more will pass. Nothing. And we all know why.
(There's a limited amount Biden can do with executive orders and things like tariffs that are under the control of the executive. But that's mostly small potatoes.)
Maybe the Biden legislative agenda. Lotsa judges we need to get on the bench, federal lands to (re)-protect, hopefully a postmaster general to fire, etc.
Yup.
I assume at least a half dozen jurists are being moderately to heavily vetted, pending Brey-Brey hanging it up as a Supreme.
Unless the Democratic Congress significantly enlarges the federal judiciary, there aren’t really enough open spots to shift control of the court during our lifetimes. And that won’t happen as long as even a handful of Democratic senators hold the senate’s courtly traditions dear above all else.
So, as a practical matter, Kevin’s right that the Biden legislative agenda is done for the year. My own view is that both Democratic control of Congress is finished and probably so too is the Biden presidency.
[D] Party Death Spiral.
Wow. I thought I was hard on the establishment Dems. Ain’t over til it’s over. .... Obama’s biggest mistake was waiting too long to realize how much Republicans hated him, even when he accepted their health care plan. And now today’s Dems surely realize that a good number of Republicans would gladly pitch in to have them killed. If this isn’t a moment when Dems could agree to set aside the 60 vote filibuster for the most important bills, they deserve to be crushed by the Republican minority in 2 years. The gop wins cause it has no love for “rules” or the Constitution or democracy.
"they deserve to be crushed by the Republican minority in 2 years." No, they don't. This kind of sentiment is not accurate. Why? because the alternative, especially these days, isn't just worse: the alternative is, in fact, an existential threat to our democracy and a dire risk for all life on the planet. Seriously. So it's really time to just drop all talk of how the Dems need to meet all our expectations or else they deserve to lose. As long as the Repubs remain a lunatic fringe cult, every election will be a literal life and death struggle to keep the Dems in power.
Indeed.
Almost makes me think Bebop is a Nader-Stein-Hankins voter who has learned nothing but remembered everything.
(Is there a United Daughters of the Confederacy type group for the Green Party US?)
I think the point is not that the Democrats deserve to be wiped out because they’re not meeting unrealistic expectations. Rather it is that the Democrats will be wiped out in the 2022 midterms because they value courtly senatorial customs more highly than they value anything else, including the party’s agenda or even the survival of the republic.
There are 51 Democratic voters in the senate. Those Democratic senators and the Vice President need to decide what’s more important. If they choose the Senate’s Jim Crow traditions over they needs of the country, it’s hard to say that the Democrats won’t deserve to be wiped out in 2022 and 2024.
Got to agree with this. But I think Manchin has opened the door a crack for constraining the filibuster. Also, FY2022 appropriations are another opportunity to get things that Republicans oppose, but won’t risk getting blamed for a shutdown over.
It's hard to say where Manchin's going with this. It kind of looks like a political version of the "Dance of the Seven Veils" where he's mainly looking to delay having to actually do something until after the 2022 midterms.
I think from Manchin's perspective, it would be okay for the Democrats to lose control of Congress in 2022 or 2024 but disastrous if they pick up Senate seats in either election. So I think what he's angling for is a narrow loss for the Democrats in both elections.
Nonsense. If Democrats lose control of the Senate in 2022, Manchin will lose his influence even if he keeps his seat. If Democrats gain a few seats, there will still be Blue Dogs, and he will be the leader of the pack.
I’m not sure that influence is what Manchin is all about. He doesn’t seem to want anything for West Virginia and seems to enjoy preening and centrist posing more than life itself and he can continue doing it even after the Democrats are wiped out.
Sorry, but many of those plans are not supported by the voters. A nostril grab would do you some good.
What plans are you referring to? It's my understanding that much of the Democratic agenda (e.g., voting rights, immigration reform, infrastructure investment, clean energy) is supported by large (i.e., over 60%) majorities of the electorate.
70% of America is not real: confirmed.
And what is it with wingnuts and violence? I mean, why stop at inflicting pain? Why not go with permanent maiming or crippling? Really, nothing shows you have the better argument than physically damaging the other person.
“Neanderthal” was far too kind to wingnuts and insulting to Neanderthals.
This is the agenda which the Democrats campaigned on in 2018 and 2020. If a majority of voters did not like that agenda one would suppose that Republicans would be returned to control of Congress and the White House. Yet, the Republicans retained only one branch of government, namely, the unelected judiciary.
^^^The gop wins cause it has no love for “rules” or the Constitution or democracy.^^^
It's been a few cycles since they've done all that much winning. Even 2016 wasn't all that fantastic for them in terms of down ticket races. In 2018 they got clobbered. And, modest House pickups aside, 2020 was a disaster for them with a capital D (you never want to give power to the other side when the economy is close to bottoming out). And needless to say their policy gains have been entirely unimpressive and probably ephemeral.
Meanwhile Joe No Malarkey Biden just presided over what looks very likely to be the one of the biggest expansions of the safety net in US history.
Democrats have their work cut out for them, but, honestly, I'm pleasantly surprised at how well things are going.
+1
Have you ever read the Constitution?
If it's an odd-numbered day, it means Kevin is in his hard-headed pessimism mood. I'd say at least 10 Republicans will vote for an increase in the minimum wage, although not to $15. Moreover 'filibuster yes or no' is a false dichotomy. It's quite plausible that all 50 Democrats could agree to pass selected bills with a simple majority while leaving the Senate rules intact.
Just curious: which 10 Republicans do you think will vote for, say, a $12 minimum wage?
(As for the filibuster, Manchin's comments over the weekend suggest the *possibility* of Democrats "reforming" the filibuster to make it more onerous for Republicans to use, and thereby being able to pass some additional legislation.)
Yes.
I think @kenalovell is correct; this isn't a binary yes/no choice. It is very easy to imagine that Manchin might vote to remove the filibuster from being used against voting rights bills. Or that the rules for a filibuster might be amended so that the speaker gets one shot at the filibuster, and has to physically speak continually during the filibuster.
It's all interesting speculation but time is tight. The Democrats need to have some solid accomplishment that will excite the base and drive them to the polls (especially African Americans) also impressed and solidify the party's hold over its newly acquired moderate, educated, suburban voters.
There's no time for Manchin to preen himself and perform his centrist "Dance of the Seven Veils". As the King says: "It's now or never!"
"If it's an odd-numbered day, it means Kevin is in his hard-headed pessimism mood."
Mood swings: check. Little-known fact: Kevin stopped being invited to weddings after writing notes to the bride and groom that said: "You'll never have another day as happy as this one. It's all downhill from here, bitches. Please don't think this is real life. The fantasy is over in five ... four ... three ...."
haha
Well then. Folding my tent until the next president...
And Drum shoots the 22 midterms in the head. Good God can you develop enotions someday, my dude?
Oh, I don't know. I'd say there's a fair amount of emotion buried in that post....
I don’t think it’s Kevin’s pessimism (or mine) that’s causing the 2022 midterms to be rapidly slipping away. As long as 60 votes are need to get anything done and the Republican parliamentarian remains, the odds of the Democrats keeping either house of Congress are slim and getting slimmer every day.
Tinkering around the edges of the filibuster just won’t be enough. It’s a binary choice between the senate’s courtly “Jim Crow” traditions and holding on to the Congress and the White House. It’s that simple.
Rapidly slipping away when they just passed a massive bill. Nothing is slipping away today.
That said a huge part of 2010 was that they went small and Obama spent much of his time demoralizing activists.
This bill is not small, blacklisting of better dems is not official policy, and Biden has consistently nominated great people for positions (Lina Khan at FTC is a real hire) except for Tanden and a few others.
So far its a good job of keeping the base feeling good. It could definitely get worse but right now, today, it's good.
Tomorrow is just a day away. And it’s won’t take care of itself. This rescue package is good but if the Democrats don’t do anything else between now and the midterms they will probably lose the Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024.
Mr. Drum is just very wrong in these regards...there is an infrastructure bill that should be able to be crafted sufficient to pass with sufficient Republican support...and if not, Biden and the Dems have to hit the hustling hard and hang this failure around Republican necks.
This is doable and a reasonable goal and/or plan.
Now Then!!!!!!!!!!!!
More than anything, Voting Rights Act, HR1 or some variation must and will be passed. Machin seems open to a limited modification of the Filibuster...gotta stay on the floor of the Senate (great theater!!!!), or if not that, in the final extemis, kill dead the filibuster.
Kevin sounds like Mr. Obama....who lacked either the vision of fortitude to do what is necessary...Kevin is just wrongo, the VRA and Infrastructure bills will be passed and enacted because they must be....Thee is no Hamlet here!
Mr. Biden need not give these newly demanded news conferences...His only messaging should be....We are doing Good Government for the People....I'm not here to entertain like my predecessor....
(I have one caveat...to be successful, (and protect the dreamers), Mr Biden must be seen as getting the border under control...let people in, don't let people in doesn't matter...he needs to be seen the master of this situation...that is all...kind of his existential issue, without mastering this, the Biden Presidency will become a failure).
Best Wishes, Traveller
In one respect, I find Kevin's attitude a good reset: assume nothing more will get through, and everything that *does* make it through is then a pleasant surprise.
And in one respect, he is right that without filibuster reform (never mind getting rid of it) there will be no movement. The idea I like best is that instead of needing 60 votes to move forward, the opposition will need all 40 votes at all times to keep the foot on the brake. As soon as eleven Republicans take a potty break, then the filibuster is ended.
Expectations game is never won by the left. & certainly not the revolutionary fleft.
Yes. That, and make them stand up and speak to the issue. I want to hear them defend the idea that not everyone’s vote should count.
No, Obama wanted any type of health care reform so bad, he ignored his own party and pushed a weak plan despite health care reform not being high on the dockett, causing voters to leave the democratic party. It was all self hubris.
Thanks for your comment, but this is a misreading (or misremembering) of history.
1) Health care reform was #1 domestic priority for the Democratic party in 2007-2010. Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, and company spent much of the 2007-08 Congressional session lining up party support for major health care reform. Health care was the #1 issue in presidential primary; every major (and minor) candidate had a highly detailed health care proposal. (Obama's was generally agreed to be the weakest/most conservative.) It was also the #1 domestic issue for Democratic primary voters.
2) President Obama wanted and pushed for as liberal a plan as could get through Congress. The fact that it wasn't more liberal is a reflection of the fact that there weren't enough votes to pass a more liberal/expansive plan.
Well, Obama’s campaign healthcare proposal differed from Sen. Clinton’s mainly in the lack of an individual mandate, which ACA incorporated in the end, as every knowledgeable person knew it would. McCain’s plan was much more conservative, pretty much just a tax break for privately purchased insurance, and some mumbling about a fix for state high-risk pools, some of which were tanking.
No, Biden still has infrastructure and tax reform to pay for it. That will be a longer political journey, but likely done by the first quarter of next year at the latest. Finishing many promises.
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"...There might be another reconciliation bill later in the year..."
Kind of gliding over that, aren't you? "The Biden *legislative* agenda is *half* done for the year" doesn't have quite the same punch. And I expect the second reconciliation bill to be the one where a lot of interesting stuff happens, because they won't have to rush it out in the midst of a crisis.
And after that, it depends on what kind of filibuster reform we can coax out of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. I'm not super hopeful, but Manchin is at least making noises about it--and doing so in connection with HR1, which would mean a nationwide end to gerrymandering, which would be a big f**king deal.
Manchin likely wants HR1 passed into law so he can shoot it like skeet in his next reelection campaign ad.
Thanks for the rain on the parade.
Man Proposes, Manchin Disposes
Hey. You love a good graph. Who doesn't love a good graph?
Any chance you know where to find a chart comparing the economic impact by income group of Trump's 2017 tax cuts and Biden's Relief bill?
Both passed via reconciliation without support from the opposing party.
A picture/graph would help illustrate the very different impact distribution that the bills had (and would be helpful for those we know who won't read 800 words explaining how one bill helped the wealthy and one helps the lower income folks).
Not sure if this is was you're looking for, but just the other day I saw a Morning Joe segment with a guy specifically comparing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the American Rescue Plan, with charts and all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLb7DLSiXwA
Hi. This is great. The bar graph is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks for the tip.
Some people might be persuaded if they can be made to view the distributional differences - if they understand graphs. But most people will get actual checks, which they can't ignore.
Isn't there a debt ceiling vote coming up soon? Not sure what happened to that....
Biden will have to spend most of this year repairing governance and institutions anyway. Use that process to promote ideas for needed legislation. And move the FBI HQ so that land can be sold to a developer.
But definitely “ Give Manchin and Sinema a Break”.
Kevin do you ever suffer from whiplash? Because I'm truly amazed how easy you go from articles that some variation of
"Everything is amazing, people complain too much about things that aren't really that bad, so let's not worry"
to
"That's it, this is a catastrophe, a nightmare, nothing will be done or get fix"
Shit like this doesn't cut it anymore. Everyone knows that if Manchin wants it, he could get it. He just doesn't want it. But its more likely that the 8 Senators that voted against the min wage don't want it. I think Manchin would vote yes if he was the only guy.
We are going to find out the stuff that Dem Senators were saying that they supported but don't actually support this year. It's Obamacare repeal and replace all over again.
No. Biden is an institutionalist; he didn’t want to begin his Presidency overturning a ruling by the parliamentarian, so some of his friends with safe seats voted the amendment down. When he needs it, he’ll approve just enough filibuster reform to get important things done. But he won’t _end_ the filibuster.
(Reply to Summer)
The Biden Agenda Is Done For the Year? Not really. Manchin is setting up the GOPers to prove that they aren't serious about/capable of negotiating on voting rights, infrastructure, immigration reform, etc. Then, "more in sorrow than in anger", he'll come out in support of filibuster "reform", and keep moving Biden's agenda forward. Republican recalcitrance will make for some great campaign ads in 2022.
If the economy turns bad and Democrats are thrown out in 2024 Manchin and Sinema will probably go with them, so they don't have the interest in sabotaging things that Republicans do. If a measure will help the economy and is popular among Republicans as well as Democrats, they could vote for it. Of course they say they are for bipartisanship since they depend on Independent and even Republican votes, but the fact is that they voted for the stimulus bill when no Republicans did. There are ways that the filibuster could be evaded - nothing prevents Democrats from exempting any particular thing from it. Some infrastructure and some increase in the minimum wage (but not $15) are not impossible. Many voters' attitudes may change once they start getting checks.
Paraphrasing Kevin: "First!"
('Pay no attention to the future articles telling you about the long, hard road ahead because I'm telling you now the road ahead is long and hard.')
In 2017 Republicans got a huge tax cut. And that's about it for big legislation for years to come.
In 2021 Democrats will get a huge spending bill. And perhaps that's about it for big legislation for years to come.
You'd think we could do more. At least the Democratic spending bill has forecasts that show it actually boosting GDP growth rates. And people more in need get help. Trump's tax cuts appear to have done little but increase debt, and this Trump debt continues to get larger each year.
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