Needless to say, many people disagree with me about whether the Democratic Party is blowing it by moving too far to the left. And maybe they're right! Personally, I'd be thrilled to see the country become more of a European-style social democracy.
But I don't represent the median voter or anything close to it. The median voter, for better or worse, worries about the deficit, is troubled about wokeness, and doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone.
And speaking of giving money away, that's what Joe Biden's expanded child tax credit does: it gives families $3,600 per year for every child under the age of 6 and $3,000 per year for older children. It comes in the form of a monthly check, and it doesn't matter if you're working or even looking for a job. If you have kids, you get it.
This has been billed as the "largest anti-poverty measure ever," and perhaps it is. But consider for a minute how this comes across to many people. Here's the attack ad Republicans are likely to run:
OPEN ON SCENE OF WORKERS AT A FOOD BANK:
VO: Americans have always been generous to folks who are down on their luck.
RAPID MONTAGE OF ASSISTANCE TO THE LESS FORTUNATE:
Healthcare for kids.
Housing for the homeless.
Food and money for those out of work.
CUT TO BW FOOTAGE OF WHITE MOTHER IN FRONT OF MOBILE HOME AND HER FOUR SCROUNGY KIDS RUNNING AROUND:
But that's not enough for the militant "progressives" who run the Democratic Party these days. Nothing is ever enough for them. Last year they passed the biggest handout in American history.
They call it a "child tax credit," but not a single penny of it goes to kids. It goes to their parents, who get it whether they feel like working or not.
DOLLY IN ON MOTHER:
For her it means $13,000 a year in cash, no strings attached.
CUT TO MOTHER OPENING ENVELOPE WITH CHECK INSIDE:
They already get Medicaid. And food stamps. And welfare. Now Democrats are handing them even more. In cash. What do you think they'll spend it on?
CUT TO WHITE MAN IN HARD HAT WIPING BROW AT END OF DAY:
You work hard for your money. Is this how you want your tax dollars spent?
Paid for by Citizens for Common Sense.
Now, this is mostly just a standard anti-welfare ad. Republicans have been running stuff like this forever. So maybe it doesn't matter much what Democrats do.
Still, the Biden CTC is different. The very things that progressives like about it—it's cash, and everyone gets it, no questions asked—are precisely the things that moderates are most afraid of: It costs hundred of billions of dollars; it goes to the "undeserving" poor; and they figure it probably gets spent on booze and partying.
Again: I get that anti-welfare rhetoric is SOP for Republicans. But the Biden CTC really is designed like a cruise missile to hit all the things that moderates and conservatives hate the most about welfare programs. It will not help Democrats make inroads among swing voters who would otherwise be receptive to ditching the party of Donald Trump.
"But I don't represent the median voter or anything close to it. The median voter, for better or worse, worries about the deficit, is troubled about wokeness, and doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone."
Citation required.
Ain't that the truth. What Kevin describes isn't the "median voter." It's the GOP voter. Period.
Bingo
Looking around at his neighbors who also fly American flags and drive porsches?
I've no idea why Kevin suddenly considers himself an expert on what influences swing voters. I thought only wankers like David Brooks did that.
Wait - but the child tax credit is the piece of the reconciliation bill that actually goes to the middle class (along with the poor), which is why I would have thought that this was a part of the 350 billion a year bill that you'd be strongly in favor of? In addition to being an important long-term investment in the country - and in crime reduction, because better early nutrition presumably helps just like de-leading helps.
Kevin is adopting the kind of unreasoned made up crap we expect from every other pundit type.
He says things need to be done for the middle class. Then shits on things done for the middle class.
It’s a bad troll job or he’s losing his mind.
Incomprehensibly poor logic and poor judgment. Check the lead in his water supply?
"Who is eligible for Child Tax Credit?
To be eligible for this benefit program, the child you are claiming the credit for must be under the age of 17.
A qualifying child must be a son, daughter, foster child, brother, sister, stepbrother, stepsister, or a descendant of any of them (for example, your grandchild, niece, or nephew). An adopted child, lawfully placed with you for legal adoption, is always treated as your own child."
https://www.benefits.gov/benefit/938
Everyone who has a child under 17 will get this credit, including the famous middle class. What's to argue about?
Why, even the evil Republican middle class voter will get this credit. Are they going to refuse the money? I don't think so.
Refuse the money? No. Vote against distributing it? Very much yes.
Well, yes they voted for Republicans who voted against it, and will do so again. The cognitive dissonance is pretty impressive when you think about it.
I'm still waiting for the principled Republican voter to refuse the many benefits they receive as a result for Democratic supported policies.
I don't think there will be ads like this at all.
Lots of poor parents who make so little they don't bother to file taxes have failed to get the benefit, while legions of conservative stay-at-home-moms have received the checks for their quiverfull of kids.
The GOP knows that their crowd has benefitted. If they start to go after the expanded credit, it might result in others going after the existing credit, and that won't go over well. They will let it expire and keep their mouths shut about it during the election.
My issue with it is it will be given for children beyond the first two. Grandfather-in those already born, but it should not be paid for a third or later child born nine to twelve months and on after the bill is passed/signed. With perhaps the highest per-capita emissions (bar a few) on the planet, the last thing we need is to increase this country's population.
The US birth rate is actually below replacement. The population continues to grow in part because previous population growth means that the age distribution is skewed young; a disproportionate fraction of the population is of childbearing age. This is a self-remedying condition.
However, by far the bigger part of population growth is immigration. In the absence of immigration, the US population growth rate would quite quickly go negative.
+1
Which is why I am also not in favor of expanding immigration. My quixotic thought is a world population drifting down to 2-4 billion where each country drifts down to its population when the world was last at 2-4 billion people. Make the ~21 gigatons of CO2e we might emit within absorption limits go around a bit more thickly.
Extrapolation of trends in birth rates suggest that the world population will peak at about 11 or 12 billion around the end of this century and then start to slowly drift downward. That is much too little and too late to address climate change. I think we're going to have to reduce per capita CO2 emissions, quickly and a lot.
Taking those figures, that is less than two tons (metric) per-person. Presently the US is at 16 and change.
Hi this is your Swedish friend
The biggest win of your Republicans (and “moderate”-right wing Democrats) was when they fooled Americans into believing all tax is theft never to be of any use for ordinary citizens.
When I am giving information on my Sweden is the usual answer:
Americans would never pay xx% in tax ( usually a vastly exaggerated figure)… and by doing so are they confirming my statement above.
The interesting question isn’t the % , it’s what you get for the money.
A family of average income in Sweden is much better of than their peers in USA and a low income family isn’t comparable whatsoever.
This is a list of some things you are lacking
It may sound jingoistic but that wasn’t really my purpose and this list could have been from many European countries.
... and I must have forgotten a lot of benefits you also are lacking
Paid parental leave 480 days ,
If a child younger than 12 is sick a parent stays home, 100% of salary
Subsidized childcare
Cash money disbursed if you are having kids
If you are sick 80% of salary (it’s an upper limit)
Unlimited healthcare, fees totally negligible.
Prescription drugs maximum $270/year
Free dental care until 24 years of age then subsidized
At least five weeks paid vacation/year
Livable pensions guaranteed (total sum dependent on income)
Guaranteed nursing home with your own room en suit and kitchenette (charge dependent on income)
All education free of charge and a small salary if you are post high school
Student loans provided by the government on reasonable terms
Isn’t this going to end up in national bankruptcy ?
Before the pandemic was our net national debt less than 30% of GDP
.... but Sweden is still having more billionaires per capita than USA and if you want to live the American dream you better move to one of those pesky Nordic countries because that dream is dead in America, statistically, but your chances are good over here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Progress_Index
Well said. But, the US doesn't want to "appear" socialistic. I was raised in Canada and am well versed in what the folks in the US call "socialism".
Senator Joseph Raymond "Joe" McCarthy is still very much alive and kicking “over there”
It’s a little amusing, my Sweden has been a favorite target in right leaning US propaganda.
It’s called “Sweden-bashing." Key themes in this genre include allegedly totalitarian tendencies in the Swedish welfare state as well as a supposedly anti-Western bias in Swedish Cold War neutrality.
Eisenhower was the first one out . In 1960 while addressing the Republican National Committee did Eisenhower describe Sweden as a cautionary tale about socialism and government intrusion into the affairs of individuals. He described Sweden as engaging in an "experiment of almost complete paternalism", and cited what he said were allegedly high rates of alcoholism, suicide, and divorce, as well as a "lack of ambition" due to socialism (quoting fake statistics)
We just don’t fit in their narrative, a country like Sweden just cannot exist according to Republicans (and “moderate” Democrats)
It is interesting, considering that Canada is the second biggest country in the world and is separated from the US only by "the world's longest undefended border", how little most Americans know about Canada.
Thanks for demonstrating autofellatio to us Americans. The readers of this blog are very well aware that Sweden (and most of our wealthy peers) have far more benefits than we do. Not sure how to translate “rubbing it in our faces” into Swedish, but I can see you enjoy doing so.
You don’t need to translate it …
Social progress is a banned subject in your politics . If an elected representative is trying to raise the subject is name calling starting and the elite of the party is basically telling them to shut up and sit down. The main argument for not introducing benefits that is considered to be normal even in countries that sure don’t have your resources is that it is to expensive… in the richest country on this planet
One cannot find many “progressives” in your Congress simply because your archaic Constitution cannot handle a multiparty situation but the percentage of progressive voters is not insignificant. Check the success of Sanders in primaries even if the system is rigged against him . These voters are supposed to show up at elections and vote for a candidate they don’t endorse because the alternative is the abyss
I am not rubbing it in , I am just reminding you of what you are denied .
Your maternal and infant mortality will continue to be disastrous for lower and middle income groups if you don’t dare to start talking about it
“ The median voter, for better or worse, worries about the deficit, is troubled about wokeness, and doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone.”
That’s every voter. The difference is what they think woke, deficit, and giveaway mean. I don’t like the idea of just giving $4 billion to the rich in tax breaks; Republicans don’t seem to mind. They don’t think it’s a giveaway any more than I think childcare, vital to our economy and our future generations, is a giveaway.
The whole median voter idea is crap. It made sense in the 80s, when a mismatch of ideas and candidates made things like the third way work. But now? We’re 40% rabid Republicans, 50% rabid Dems, 2% truly undecided people, and 8% a group of distracted idiots who vote based on hair color or whatever. Figuring out what matters to them now, a year before the next election, is a fools journey.
(Those 8% are the median ONLY BECAUSE WE’RE NOT A DEMOCRACY.)
Pleasing the bitter old men who show up at Starbucks by 6am every weekday isn't going to get us a country worth living in.
You saw Kevin at Starbucks too? I thought that was him. 😊
Hey! I resemble that remark! But I'm the Beleagered Old Liberal to their Bitter Old White Men. Somebody's got to break into their echo chamber!
Actually, I'm an old pretty liberal person, even though I am registered as an Independent in CA. I like not be automatically pigeon-holed as a unthinking liberal vote.
I'm a white retired RN who is a native Californian and pretty proud of it.
Listening to the MSNBC news now, it seems the more progressive members are driving the discussion today.
No, voters don't worry about the deficit. If Republican voters did they wouldn't keep electing tax-cutting Republicans who have been blowing up deficits since 1981. Saying that they are concerned with deficits is something that Republicans, both pols and voters, do when a Democrat is President.
But the main purpose of the spending bills is not really to win voters over directly. Republicans are not campaigning on real issues anyway, they are campaigning on big lies about the stolen election and the microchips in vaccinations. They may run ads of the type that Kevin describes, but what they really rely on is not economic arguments, but inciting racism and religious bigotry. Since it is no longer socially acceptable to admit to being a racist, people who vote Republican have to give excuses, which include Hillary's emails and how Biden is really a Marxist (or a puppet in control of AOC). The claim that too much is given to moochers (really non-whites) is really part of this, not a fundamental opposition to welfare.
The main purpose of the bills is to get the economy going and keep it going through the 2022 and 2024 campaigns. If the economy turns bad the in party is usually out, no matter what their promises and policies. There are many things in the bills that do actually appeal to swing voters, whatever Kevin may say. Who knows more about this, Biden or Kevin? Democrats just have to keep emphasizing not only these, but how the economy has to be kept going. Also how Republicans offer nothing but hate.
+1
Quite possibly the most cynical thing I've ever seen Kevin write (or perhaps the only?). Imagine, just for a second, that progressives want to do this because it's the right thing to do rather than to simply get more votes.
Kevin needs to pull his head out of politics and charts every once in a while and examine his conscience. This sounds like something a democratic Matthew Dowd would write in a private memo.
"Quite possibly the most cynical thing I've ever seen Kevin write (or perhaps the only?)."
You must have missed when during the past campaign season he was telling Democrats to tolerate some degree of racism and racists, and stop hurting bigots sentiments by calling in their bigotry, because then maybe some of them could vote for Democrats that way.
It seems like snarky Kevin is being replaced by cranky Kevin.
But his analysis of the Republican ad is correct. But they'll run it anyway, regardless of which bills get passed or don't get passed. As Kevin noted earlier, the refundable tax credit has been around for a but--it's just a little larger now and is going out monthly.
This seems like exactly the sort of non-means-tested stuff KD was just saying he wants more of the other day. This doesn't make sense.
The tax credit goes to every parent, not to the poor. Middle class families will like getting the money as much as anyone so I don't see the problem.
Technically the child tax credit is means tested too. If your household makes too much you don’t get the CTC. But the bar is set much higher than most means testing: at like $150k per parent.
I'm pretty sure you are wrong.
https://www.benefits.gov/benefit/938
Take a minute to read this.
"It costs hundred of billions of dollars; it goes to the "undeserving" poor; and they figure it probably gets spent on booze and partying."
Lately I've wondered if I'm reading the same KD who so profoundly affected my thinking about politics with his (to me) extremely persuasive pieces on the influence of lead on American brains, society, and politics.
I grew up in the 70s and 80s in the nice very-white suburbs of Washington, DC and the attitudes about the undeserving poor spending it all on booze and partying absolutely captures the view of the families and kids I was surrounded by.
But KD long ago convinced me that much of that attitude was shaped by the fact we had poisoned the brains of these "undeserving poor", saddling them with a lot of bad behavior which wasn't even really their choice.
And I think the younger generation these days does not share these attitudes at all. They think people work hard and deserve a chance to have a decent life.
I just don't think ads like the one described here have nearly the power they used to have. (Note I didn't say they have no power, I'm saying they are fading fast.)
True--it will depend on the demographic. But all the Republicans need are a few percentage points in key districts in a few states....and there goes the House, maybe the Senate and possibly the Presidency....
"But I don't represent the median voter or anything close to it. The median voter, for better or worse, worries about the deficit, is troubled about wokeness, and doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone."
What you are describing here isn't the median voter, it's the conservative voter as someone else mentioned above.
The actual numbers also disagree with you.
"The current expanded tax credit has proven popular, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, supported by 59% of U.S. adults including 75% of people who identified themselves as Democrats and 41% of people who identified as Republicans. The poll was conducted online Sept. 9-10, based on responses from 1,003 adults and with a credibility interval of 4 percentage points."
This poll has been debunked.
Fwiw, just cap child based part of it, it's pretty much irrelevant.
No, it's not. You just don't like the results. Really, please, just go away. As I learned a long time ago, don't go away mad, just go away. I'm all for that Spades - a -really- loser- POS- masquerading as an actual human being. Really, just go away.
Your a pos person who still doesn't get reality of the fact child poverty is very low.
What's the threshold? How low is it? Child poverty? And what would be low enough? You are so full of shit it leaks through your pours like sweat in the night.
Honestly, I think this might do really well among middle-class Catholics. Mormons, too, but I think Catholics are more reachable. I could be wrong.
You know, groups that are pro-large-family, and see the tax code as working against that rather than for it.
And those attack ads? Middle class Catholics could easily see that as a slur on them.
Given Biden is a Catholic, he might know what he's doing here. I'm not an expert on Catholic voters, but I think Biden might be.
Only maybe 20 percent or so of practicing Catholics have large families these days. A lot of devout Catholic couples quietly ignore church teaching on birth control even conservative ones. That said Catholics have a different mindset then Evangelicals they come from a Church that is supportive of immigrants and helping the poor.
I'm sure you're correct. But these days moving just a few points worth of voters can be very meaningful. And the sort of attacks imagined upstream is gonna drive a long-term grudge against the people who made them, it seems to me.
The schism in the Church is real - there's the US Bishops who want to deny communion to Democratic politicians and those who side with Pope Francis. The folks who side with Pope Francis and use birth control would be potential persuadables but the wingnut ones are a lost cause.
The US Conference of Bishops need to be replaced by the Nuns on a Bus.
My parents received a "child allowance" until I was 18 years of age. This was over 70 plus years ago, in Canada. What is wrong with Americans? Are they afraid to give parents a leg up? Maybe folks would be happier if there was an income limit before paying the parents.
What is wrong with Americans?
In my view it's their (our) constitution, mostly.
So what, Biden should kowtow to Republicans because they might say mean things about Democrats? As others have pointed out, the middle class benefits from the CTC. I'm an attorney and I'm getting $250 a month from the expanded CTC. i don't know anyone who is against it. Living in the Texas panhandle,I know plenty of people against Biden and every Democrat. Nothing is going to change their minds. Conservative Republicans don't care about policies. All they care about is gamesmanship and beating the Democrats.
And Republicans will ALWAYS say mean things about Dems. They'll use the standard attacks: SOCIALIST! TAX 'N' SPEND! GOODIES TO BUY VOTES! UNDESERVING POOR (aka BLACK!!)
We know the drill. There is nothing that will change the stale GQP playbook. So ignore it, debunk it, ridicule it, show the need and the good that Democratic programs are doing.
The commenters don't like the post. The one thing I disagree with Kevin on is the "median voter". He should have specified it as "median voter" in swing districts, which is considerably to the right of the median voter nationally.
With Biden's favorable rating under water, the outlook for 2022 is poor, and the CTC won't help. It ought to, but won't.
Nope, don't agree. Biden's favorability rating is irrelevant right now and had been subdued by a surprisingly high Covid wave. Saying things look bad for 2022 when Republicans have a poor Senate map is just bad analysis. At least try. Things change fast. Wait when the reconciliation deal is reached. No rush there.
It's much the same with the so called "supply shortage". The analysis is poor right now based on Asian "junk". Of course the winter Olympics end, China ends its factory curbs, supply churns. We'll hear that the issue is ending dramatically.
You have to be careful guy, when doing analysis.
I'm concerned about the House, not the Senate, We've vulnerable seats in Virginia. Biden's coattails were nonexistent in 2020--I'm not sure what that means for 2022. Question is the big surge in turnout for both Trump and Biden--which set of voters stays involved.
Spend much more on weapons.
https://stephensemler.substack.com/p/per-year-the-pentagon-budget-is-more?utm_source=P%26S%3A+Drone+News+Roundup+—+All&utm_campaign=fba81e9e3b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_01_04_01_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_066db1cbcd-fba81e9e3b-391860565
Oops. Why not cut defense?
Drum: You need to help the middle class!
Biden: Gives middle class people cash for their kid
Drum: Middle class people care about a deficit not getting money!
👌👌👌
There's not much sense in winning elections unless you use the power you gain. I say Democrats should enact the biggest possible package—CRT included, hopefully*— and let the chips fall where they may. Also, has Kevin drilled down into the numbers when it comes to (the pretty small number of) swing voters. From what I understand they tend not to be disciples of right wing, supply-side economics. Hard core MAGA/GOP aren't going to vote Democrat unless Trump tells them to. And I doubt CRT is what motivates the modest number of persuadables one way or another.
*And honestly, I think it's probably the most important provision of the reconciliation bill. Child poverty in America is an absolute scandal. The CRT reduces it. By a lot. I'm personally more invested in the Obamacare subsidies measure (I could definitely see myself using that when I return to the US one day), but the CRT is more critical.
Winning elections? Why even make this assertion. Democrats edged out the election. It's part of the reason why the Trump term was as weak as it was in terms of legislation due to a narrow victory. Democrats had much more a mandate in 2008 and screwed up than now. Your trying way to hard.The
A good example is Mrs Unabomber whining over the 7 climate provisions and not realizing Manchin is the last FF Senator Dems have left. Your not going to get all 7 of those provisions. Period. He needs some cover there to go bigger in other key priorities. You keep on acting like Democrats have 59 Senators and 255 Congressional persons. They don't
Accept that and deal with that reality.
"The median voter, for better or worse, worries about the deficit, is troubled about wokeness, and doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone."
Actual people with real day-to-day lives, jobs and bills to pay don't give a shit about the deficit of the country. We certainly don't have time to be by wokeness. And honestly, who doesn't like the idea of just giving money away to everyone?
So, false, false, false. Empirically. And obviously. Median voters do not at all care about these things. Give them free money, now. Kids, parents, olds. All of us. Make rich people pay. The quicker the better. That's all the median voter cares about. The median voter has been starved for money that rich people stole from them, and if Democrats can deliver on that, it's all they'll care about going forward.
People who reproduce are destroying the planet. And so democrats want to pay them for the privilege? To heck with that green new deal!
Don’t have kids.
If there's going to be an ad, it's not going to be as you described. It will be like this:
"Are you wondering why schools are struggling to find bus drivers, serve meals to children, your favorite restaurants and movie theaters closed or no longer open on a regular basis? Can't find toys for Christmas? It's because Democrats are using your tax money to pay people not to work!"
Cynical though it may be that conservatives for years lamented the fact the nuclear family was undermined by women working from home or the fact they have no problems paying farmers tax money not to farm (!) they will have no qualm to use such rhetoric to try and exploit the labor crises now that cutting off unemployment benefits and rent protections hasn't exactly sent people streaming back into the labor market as they had foretold. What else are they going to blame it on? The only question is whether the CTC is middle class enough to make such ads and attacks useless.