In the Washington Post today, David Lynch writes about the economic problems of Erie, Pennsylvania, a "left behind" community that's been devastated by the decline of the Rust Belt.
And make no mistake: Erie is a very poor area, with low incomes and high poverty rates. And yet, there's something interesting about it:
At its height, incomes in Erie were about the same as the national average. Its decline began in the Reagan era and then it was decimated in the aughts by the exit of manufacturing to China.
But more recently there's a surprise that doesn't quite fit the narrative: Erie has rebounded pretty strongly during the past decade. Over the past twelve years, the median household income has gone up 26% even after adjusting for inflation. That compares to 16% for the rest of the country.
This still leaves Erie pretty far behind the US average. Nevertheless, that rebound is surely worth taking note of. Sometimes the world is more complicated than a simple, phoned-in narrative can account for.
David Lynch? Eraserhead David Lynch?
Perhaps "at its height" and "decline began" is in the eye of the beholder. From a population standpoint, that would have been some time in the 1960s:
1950 130,803 11.8%
1960 138,440 5.8%
1970 129,231 −6.7%
1980 119,123 −7.8%
1990 108,718 −8.7%
2000 103,717 −4.6%
2010 101,786 −1.9%
2020 94,831 −6.8%
Great Lakes shipping has been dropping since the 1950's. Steel production in the US has been dropping for a long time.
Just checked what is done in Erie--currently they make locomotives and plastics is big.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Erie,_Pennsylvania
Similar demographics in other parts of PA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilkes-Barre,_Pennsylvania
That's typically led to cheaper housing costs and increases in minority and immigrant populations--hence the increase in population recently--which scares the locals. But the manufacturing jobs are gone--automation or shipped south/over seas.
Perhaps what we're seeing is a byproduct of the opioid epidemic killing off a lot of people on the lower end of the income scale, shifting the median upward.
No, the world is VERY simple. Hard-working middle-class White people like those in Erie, PA, are OPPRESSED at every turn by libruls, big gummint, eeleetist university professors, globalist bankers, job-stealing immigrants, lazy inner-city welfare queens, child-molesting transsexuals, and terrorist Muslims; therefore, they are not as well off as they SHOULD be and they should be VERY ANGRY about that and elect the Lord's Chosen Champion of the Working Class, the 34-times-convicted felon, fraudster, and serial sexual batterer who was born with a $500-million dollar gold spoon in his mouth. Because obviously.
There's also this from The Economist last week
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/08/04/can-kamala-harris-win-on-the-economy
A 21 percentile decrease between 2000 and 2010 is followed by a 9 percentile increase between 2010 and 2022. Isn't this what you would expect? After all Erie is still part of the US, and market forces looking for opportunities in depressed land values and cheap labor should be zeroing in on Erie.
I was up in Erie for the eclipse. And .. it's a nice area! The lake is massively more healthy than it used to be. Some good places to eat and everyone there was really nice and enthusiastic about the eclipse. Yeah, it feels poor and no one is going to mistake it for Pittsburgh. But right now, it has that feel of a former industrial city that is making its way back. I would not be surprised if it become a hot place to live in another 20 years.
A lot of places in the so-called Rust Belt are attracting newcomers or will start do do so soon, mainly because of housing prices. Remote work helps, too. I've been hearing Duluth has become hot. Oshkosh is one of the hottest real estate markets in the country. Milwaukee is experiencing gentrification. So is Buffalo. Even Detroit has finally bottomed out in population, I'm told. My own sister and brother-in-law recently moved to Cleveland. They were sick of Florida dysfunctionality, and scored a nice house for about a third of what it would cost in the Boston suburbs.
The Midwest is back.
James Fallows has been covering Erie, PA on and off for years....
https://www.google.com/search?q=james+fallows+erie+pa&udm=14
When you're at the bottom there's nowhere to go but up?