This chart comes from Scott Hechinger, who got it from Bloomberg:
The rate of shootings has actually gone down a bit over the past year, but when Eric Adams took over as mayor (in January) media coverage of shootings suddenly skyrocketed. So now everyone is scared about their safety even though there's little reason to be.
But wait. "Little reason" doesn't mean no reason. According to the NYPD, murder is down but every single other category of major crime is skyrocketing:
The NYPD reports that incidents of major crime are up an incredible 37% through July of this year. The chart above is extrapolated from that.
But wait. (Yes, again.) This is wtf territory. In the past two decades, the city's biggest annual increases in major crimes were 4.2% in 2012 and 7.5% last year. What's more, the increase in minor crimes so far this year is only 13%. That's high but not unbelievable. Conversely, an increase of 37% is beyond eye popping. It's frankly hard to believe.
But if it's true, then (a) the media should be screaming about it, (b) people should be scared, and (c) we should be dispassionately trying to figure out what's going on.
Ha ha. Just kidding. What's really happening, as you'd expect, is the exact opposite of dispassionate. Politically, the crime surge is mostly being used as a crude cudgel in the fight over a bail reform law passed a couple of years ago. As near as I can tell, though, there's little evidence that bail reform has had much effect on crime in New York City:
This chart shows the number of people who committed any kind of new offense while on release awaiting trial. Among those who were released without bail, the number of re-offenses averaged about 1,900 per month in 2019 and went down to 1,700 in 2021-22. If you look only at felonies you get about the same rate of re-offending before and after bail reform (roughly 500 per month).
In other words, bail reform doesn't appear to be the problem. It certainly isn't the kind of thing that leads to a 37% increase in serious crime.
So what's going on in New York City? I don't know, but a farfetched increase in crime at precisely the time a new mayor enters office is damn fishy. And that's probably being unfair to fish.
I recommend reading the crime reports in the NY Post. They are hysterical. They also always have video of black people attacking someone else.
https://nypost.com/2022/07/29/horrifying-moment-man-stabs-fruit-store-worker-with-screwdriver/
https://nypost.com/2022/07/29/flashy-brooklyn-bishop-1m-heist-not-staged-for-insurance/
https://nypost.com/2022/07/29/teen-busted-in-brutal-nyc-assault-of-orthodox-man-in-front-of-5yo-son/
https://nypost.com/2022/07/28/recidivism-rates-for-burglars-and-thieves-soar-nypd-data/
It’s definitely doing a good job of framing this as crazy black criminals doing their thing every day.
"They also always have video of black people attacking someone else."
Hmmm. A "black" mayor? Is the Post racist?
Does a bear ______ in the woods?
Someone ought to check on how the Post covered Mayor David Dinkins, 1990-1993.
It wasn't pretty as I recall, fairly ugly and racist. The guy never caught a break.
I know people have repeatedly alleged that Seinfeld actually shot two versions of the frozen yogurt episode, depending on who won the mayoral election, but I still insist it is shameful how even supposed ((( liberal Democrats ))) otherized & tokenized & diminished a Black mayor.
Jerry Seinfeld is basically Paedarast Netanyahu.
And this is good conservative fodder too.
“Today, more black Americans are more likely to enter a church to attend a funeral than they are to celebrate a wedding. We are a community in crisis — with fatherless homes, near non-existent marriage rates and spiraling black-on-black crime challenging us to the core.”
https://nypost.com/2022/07/30/black-kids-deserve-better-than-fatherless-homes-low-expectations/
Of course, you know it’s all your fault. Systemic stuff and all.
Not everybody marries, but everybody dies.
Funerals have always been more numerous than weddings.
Adams thought being a cop would save him from being reduced to a shucking n' jiving caricature, like David Dinkins was.
He was wrong.
1. Some accused offenders out while waiting trial will commit crimes. If a bail reform package is passed, everyone of those crimes will be blamed on that package.
2. More mass shootings and coverage there of, so more reports on gun crime, even if it is not up in NYC.
3. Some places are having real increases in gun crimes, see Chicago.
4. With the pandemic, crime has moved to where the money is--so more car jackings in richer neighborhoods, even if overall crime in the area is not going up.
5. People still scared from the "flash mob" looting--though that seems to have waned.
6. I've come across arguments that trails are still backlogged. The courts have not recovered from the pandemic problems. More people out awaiting trial and many never getting punished.
7. Pandemic also stalled intervention and jobs for teens programs. They're just starting to be re-established.
Note: While overall numbers up ca. 37% from last year, they are still down ca. 37% from 2001.
Coverage of crime waxes and wanes to benefit conservatives and racists?
Oh, color me surprised.
(I am not surprised.)
Racists????? Please. The 37% is fictional. It's not actual raw numbers.
+1 California gun control law signed by Ronald Wilson Reagan, Sr.
Black gangs fighting over turf. Fed weapons by arms dealers and Republicans involved with drug trade. Nothing new here.
The new mayor is black.
That's literally all there is to it.