Patrick Ruffini has a warning for obsessive poll watchers:
Right now, you are anchored in a poll-driven reality that it's going to be within a point in 3-4 states.
But mentally prepare yourself for the fact that it's highly likely to be something else.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 1, 2024
This is very true. Most political polls have a margin of error around ±3 percentage points, but that's just the potential sampling error. When you account for model error, weighting errors, differential response rates, and so forth, the real MOE is probably closer to ±5-6 points.
So if a poll shows a race tied, there's a roughly one-third chance that the winning candidate will win by three points or more.
In other words, we just don't know. Anybody could win and there's nothing more that polls can tell us at this point. It might not even be close once all the counting is done.
Four more days . . .
There's also the "herding effect" where pollsters don't want to be the outlier and model their polls to create a tie.
America isn’t perfect but there is no way a majority of voters will choose a racist, misogynistic, a-hole who wears bronzer and teases his hair to be president.
Let’s fck that guy.
One of the USA's imperfections is the Electoral College, which absolutely will choose a bronzed a-hole.
Twice?
I am kind of hoping for the unlikely result of Trump winning the popular vote but loosing the Electoral College. Oh, that would drive them crazy!
Oh that would be an ironic reversal wouldn't it?
The Junior Bush team reputedly had this one gamed out. If that happened, they were going to fight all the way to get "W" installed as President because of the popular vote.
Too bad for the United States that Al Gore, a Democrat, supported the Rule of Law. Too bad all the rest of us failed to rally against the Electoral College and push for amending the Constitution.
And don't tell me it's "impossible." That's what they said about women voting.
"There is no way"? I sure hope so, but Trump did become president once, and in any case he will get the votes of a huge number of Americans. Like you, I don't think of my country or indeed any country like that, thinking instead of armed uprisings as bringing dictators to Russia and Africa in the past, and I still can't reconcile it with the American dream and a democratic society. But it's real, and I'm just crossing my fingers.
The Times for tomorrow has one of its annoying articles about Trump's advantage with young men because he's "strong," a real man, meaning basically an unashamed *hole. This is so far from what I thought I knew about people, including myself as male, that I don't know what to say. Since when did being a man mean being an a*hole? And since when did strength and masculinity become embodied in an overweight, incoherent, burdensome old man, like one's worse fears for one's life as one's parents age? But I can still worry that it might be true.
Trump is nothing more than hype. An illusion. A weak man pretending to be strong, a dumb man pretending to be smart, a failure pretending to be successful and a coward pretending to be courageous.
A grifter pretending to be a billionaire. Good rundown!
+1
Thank you.
I wish I shared your confidence.
there is no way a majority of voters will choose a racist, misogynistic, a-hole who wears bronzer and teases his hair to be president.
"No way" strikes me as an overstatement. The possibility of Trump's winning the popular vote isn't zero.
That said, I do think Harris is a pretty strong favorite to win the popular vote, sure. I'd be be quite surprised if she doesn't. If we chose our presidents in this manner, we'd sleep more soundly.
I believe I predicted in these pages 51-45 Harris a couple months ago. I stand by that prediction. Current early voting data which factors women vote, partisan vote and cross voting combined with exit polling suggest all swing states will vote for Harris with the possible exception of Nevada, and even there I pick Nevada. Upset pick, Cruz loses. He barely beat Beto last time and demos have moved away from him.
A real upset, and a possible one, would be if Harris takes Texas.
Texas may turn blue some time in the future, but it's not even purple yet. It's not even really a red state, but one in which a lot of people don't vote, and those people, if they voted, would certainly turn it purple. R's in charge are working furiously to prevent that.
The R margin in 2020 was about 5%. In 2016 it was about 10% and in 2012 it was about 15%. Straight line extrapolation suggests that 2024 should be about tied.
A real upset, and a possible one, would be if Harris takes Texas.
I think Florida is more likely to go to Harris than Texas, mainly because Biden did better there in 2020 than he did in Texas. Also, Florida is home to large numbers of Haitian and Puerto Rican voters.'
Harris has only about a three point gap to make up (relative to 2020) in Florida, where it's about five points in Texas.
It's a bit hard to know the depth of feelings once the results are in. I'll certainly be happy – in fact ecstatic – if Harris wins. If she wins big, that will be even better.
Now if Trump wins, the depth of feeling bad is hard to know. I will definitively feel very, very shitty and extremely disappointed. How could so many US voters be duped to such a degree by a viscous, narcissistic, wannabe authoritarian? And just as bad, how could so few Republicans be willing to stand up against Trump? All of this is simply not supposed to happen in the USA. Will the checks and balances hold and withstand Trump's destructive energy? I think so, given that Trump is so clueless and incompetent at most things, but who knows. Still, Trump could do a great deal of lasting damage to our institutions.
"How could so many US voters be duped to such a degree by a viscous, narcissistic, wannabe authoritarian?"
Because this county is chock full of morons, and as Hillary accurately spoke, that "his supporters belong in a basket of deplorables". Biden was also correct when he referred to Trump supporters as "garbage".
If he wins, I am literally checking out for the next 4 years, and only will be looking at the weather reports. When he royally fucks up this country, I do not want hear about it from anyone who voted or supported him, or anyone who did not vote for Harris.
Biden did not refer to Trump's supporters as garbage. He referred to Trump's supporters' garbage.
It was a typical Biden gaff, and either way, it doesn't sound good, and allowed Il Duce some relief in the media for his MSG Hate Fest.
Just because it is not smart for "normal" politicians to say stuff like that, does not mean its not true.
Calling them garbage would be letting them off way too easy.
Call them what they are: retarded scum with shit for brains.
If you’re gonna make them mad, why hold back?
It doesn't matter where the apostrophe was. It was an easy thing to be misconstrued. That's exactly what everyone did. He should have just sent out a statement.
Or Trump supporter's garbage, as in the guy who made the joke.
I am actually proud Biden did this.
There is that same segment of deplorable Hillary Clinton warned us about.
The intent is to shock, to discomfort, to insult with immunity.
It deplorably bad manners at heart.
And I know we're not supposed to say that, we're supposed to give all Trump voters the benefit of the doubt.
But some of them are white nationalists, misogynists, racists, and they claim they're pumped up and ready.
From the look of the people I see locally (Tucker Carlson's neighborhood in Maine,) it looks like a lot of steroid abuse.
Thick short necks and bad tempers.
If you think tens of millions of American voters are "garbage" human beings, perhaps this kind of thinking from many on the left is part of the reason they vote for a guy like Trump.
People on the left are often their own worst enemies when it comes to winning hearts in elections.
Instead we should call them enemies of the state and talk about sending the US military after them or shooting them. That would be a lot better. Good lord man.
I think that Biden guy should drop out.
Biden's remark reminds me of what some comedian (I can't remember which one) said about John Kerry a few elections ago after he messed up a joke about Iraq: He's the only one who could lose an election that he's not even in.
You obviously fail to acknowledge that your statement is far more accurately applied to today's "Republicans "
Both trump & Vance have used hideous language & lies about Democrats for years- do you think that they are winning our hearts & minds thereby, or are you honest enough to admit that the violent verbiage & threats are just designed to encourage more nasty rhetoric & violence by their supporters?
Perhaps you could research the number of victims of trump's stochastic terrorism - too bad that he can't be charged for instigating such crimes.
If there is one thing we know your party is good at, it's projection. Remember the voting violations by Republicans, not to mention the mob on January 6th.
Trump is not a conservative. He is a vile, despicable creature, a pathological liar, sexual predator, con man, who does not have an ounce of human decency, compassion, empathy or kindness. He doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself, and would burn this country to the ground if he could be king of the ashes. He is absolutely unamerican, and does not believe in the rule of law or the constitution.
That said, I would never call supporters of any other GOP presidential candidate a "garbage" human being, including those who voted for Goldwater or Nixon. And I did vote for Reagan (at least once) and George W (in 2000), since I thought he was less likely to get us into a foreign war (big mistake).
Compared to Trumps rhetoric? It's like the pot calling the kettle black when a Trump supporter complains about being called names. Did you see Trumps version of a Nuremberg rally at MSG? Trump and his supporters have called Democrats, and anyone that they want to demonize, far worse things, far more often and for far longer. Spare us all the lecture that we should be civil when our opponents have been uncivil since long before Trump.
Fuck you, moron
If he wins, his supporters, the gullible working class stiffs who support a con man and anti union scab hiring douchebag, will probably suffer more than most. A small consolation but I'll take it. Unfortunately his union member supporters probably won't. Atleast not my union. Although I wouldn't mind a bit of hardship if it means those assholes get some karma biting them on their ass.
When the Trump Reality bites them, they'll blame Biden. And Harris. And Democrats in general. That will be the Republican line, and the corporate media will dutifully amplify it.
+1
I hope they all die. However it is achieved, I’m good with it. The sooner the better. Before tomorrow would be really nice.
Pretty much this. I think we've hit the point that the election is going to tell us much more about the polls than the polls are currently telling us about the election. With early voting becoming more and more prevalent with each election (and the last election being the pandemic), how do you even model likely voters? Throw in the weird situation of both candidates being viewed as quasi-incumbents, but not really. The difficulties in reaching people to poll that only gets worse each election. Yeah, I can believe that it's possible that one side actually wins more comfortably than expected.
I make no prediction about which side that would be. I hope it's Harris, but I'm not counting on it.
I do hope that we are at that sweet spot in the polling vibes (if such a sweet spot exists) that, unlike 2016, people are too nervous to throw away their votes on Jill Stein or some other random protest vote, but aren't too dejected to think, "What's the bother?"
And I am bracing myself to believe that this isn't really over until someone puts their hand on a bible come Jan. 20, 2025.
I think I'd prefer that the person being sworn in take the oath of office with their hand on a copy of the Constitution.
Me too! To be honest I'm an atheist, so I might be biased. But I think it's far more appropriate to swear on the document that we base our Republic on rather than a religious document that's not relevant to everyone.
This election is super close only if the polls are super accurate.
In almost every race they show a general bias one way or another, so it probably isn't actually all that close. The problem is no one knows which way the error will fall. Will it follow 2016 / 2020? or 2018 / 2022? Did COVID throw everything off in 2020 in a way that misleads us now? Have pollsters overcompensated?
I suspect the models are off because this election is so unusual. We've never run a brilliant Black woman against a charismatic fascist with a cult following.
I'm with Kevin that Fox is a cancer that has metastasized and we cannot have a healthy democracy without common facts.
I'm sticking with my prediction that the results will be very close to the 2020 results. I can't see a significant number of Biden voters switching to Trump, nor a significant number of Trump voters from 2020 voting for Harris. There will be a few, but they will mostly cancel each other out.
I also think that the "unfavorables" will be decisive. It's hard to get someone to change their mind once they view you unfavorably. Trump's unfavorable is 53% while Harris is at 47%. Is it coincidence that those numbers add up to 100%. I think not. Everyone has made up their minds long ago.
My gut says that there will be a massive turnout of women anywhere reproductive rights are on the ballot and it will turn most of the swing states Harris. Young people don't answer their phones, so polls aren't capturing them. Young men might be energized by Trump, but their bodily autonomy isn't on the ballot.
Polls have largely moved past using phone calls to do polls, BTW. If you get the WaPo, there is an article on that...
"Young men might be energized by Trump, but their bodily autonomy isn't on the ballot." Racism and misogyny are powerful motivators as well. Trump appeals to both.
Trump will get about the same 70 million votes he got the last two times.
Whether that produces a win for him? Probably not. One could imagine, all things being equal that Harris could lose a few Dem votes vs. a dude, but one wonders how many with those voters knowing that not voting for Harris increases the chances of Trump as pres.
What I sense the most divisive factor is now is the fact that Trump has really done one thing well, which is advance the position that there should be no consequences for speech. That's why he has no problem in an interview musing about how Liz Cheney would feel in front of a firing squad. His supporters who love this are not going away, whether or not he wins or loses. He could die and it wouldn't matter.
England, Germany, Italy, New Zealand and probably a few I'm forgetting have all voted for women leaders. Are we so much more misogynistic than those countries that we have yet to do so ourselves?
Sweden (Magdalena Andersson), Israel (Golda Meir), Pakistan (Benazir Bhutto), India (Indira Gandhi)… Iceland has had two female prime ministers…
When it comes to women in leadership, the US is far behind a lot of Third World countries. There is a Wikipedia page listing the 18 female prime ministers in African countries.
While we are at it, Germany has had TWO female Defense Ministers (Ursula von der Leyen under Merkel and Christine Lamprecht under Scholz), the EU is being headed by a woman (Roberta Metseola — not the first woman either)…. The list goes on.
It’s long past time for the US to catch up to the rest of the world.
Prime ministers are not elected by an electoral college; most prime ministers are not even elected by the public.
I am less sure that Americans are somehow more misogynistic than other humans than that we have a goofy system that gives outsized weight to rural cultural conservatives.
And Mexico - not only female but Jewish.
Have you interacted with the general public?
I do it every day.
I’m fairly convinced that most of them are functionally illiterate.
I’m positive that they’re dumb as fucking dirt.
All democracy does is give idiots and dipshits a say in how the rest of us get to live our lives.
Start making ppl pass a basic aptitude test in order to vote and this shit will be WILDLY different.
"the real MOE is probably closer to ±5-6 points."
And even that ignores the confidence level which is not at all the same as the margin of error. Stated completely, the polling sample results should say, "The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent with a confidence level of 90 percent (or 95 percent)."
What that means is that even if the sample is good and the model is good, there's still of 5 to 10 percent chance the actual result will be outside the margin or error.
I accept the fact that there are constant polls from multiple sources, but it is depressing that it is almost all that anyone talks about for the last two months of the campaign. We are just doing this democracy thing wrong.
It's easy for "reporters" to just get the numbers of the day and put some words around 'em. No need to interview people, do anything like research, read position papers or listen to speeches! Except by the Convicted Felon! Always good for some kind of clownish outrage, that can dominate Page One!
Almost no one picks up the phone to an unrecognized phone number. The response rate is in the ballpark of 1%.
Our guidance is the recent past. Post-Dobbs, abortion has carried the day in elections across the country. Thanks to Trump -- who has told women that he will do things against their will and claimed that killing Roe is what women wanted -- abortion will again be on the ballot.
Especially now, when everyone over 60 is being deluged with calls and robo-calls trying to sign them up for some damned "Medicare Advantage" program. I get a dozen or so per day.
The real t** in the punch bowl is Israel's genocidal and ever expanding war across the Middle East, and the official Democratic Party's total support and furtherance of it.
The terror of AIPAC and the fear of being declared anti-semites has twisted US policy in the middle east. Layer on several decades of hasbara about the founding of Israel (thanks so much, Mr Uris), and far too many elderly Americans think it's all about religion and those dirty, terrorist Ay-rabs hating "the Jews."
The Republican Party has squared the circle! They can be simultaneously anti-semitic AND rabidly zionist! But Democrats are just no good at doublethink, and too many find the Biden policies intolerable. They want to somehow protest -- but how?
Kevin offers the perfect explanation of why public polling is WORSE than USELESS. Note that when he says ±3 points, that means a 6-point gap. The plus/minus applies to BOTH candidates. So any margin of less than 6 points between the candidates is STILL within the margin of error! And if Kevin is correct, the real MOE is more like ±5 points.
If one candidate is ahead by 55 to 45 (which is 50±5), we would all know it without useless polls.
Public polling serves only one purpose: to give news writers something to write about. It does nothing to improve public understanding, and in fact probably HARMS it by crowding out more substantive reporting.
It should be banned.
How exactly would you know it? I’d say if it was like 66-33 or higher yeah you’d know. But anything less? Impossible to “just tell”.
I think Harris will win handily. The early vote is huge. Many more women than men are voting and women are voting Harris. Those deciding in the last weeks and new voters are favoring Harris.
We often wonder why people vote against their perceived best interests. Lawrence had an interesting guest. Isabel Wilkerson author of Cast. Thesis is that cast is most important to people and that is how they vote. More than economics. I got her book but haven’t started it yet.
While his post is accurate, it should also be said that Patrick Ruffini is as dishonest and craven as any of his Republican peers.