Issuing a permit is the very first step in residential construction. Everything else follows:
After the end of the 2022 housing boom, permit issuing settled in at 1.52 million for a while. Then there was something of a collapse in the winter of last year, and permits ever since have averaged about 50,000 less.
In January permits ticked down about 7% at an annual rate. That's not a big deal, but it does suggest we're not approaching any kind of recovery in the homebuilding market.
Wait till the tariffs on wood from Canada hit.
Tariffs on Candian wood will incetivize the growth of American MAGA forests!
I just realized that the next thing will be removing any regulations on clearcutting in National Forests. These lands (Agriculture Department, unlike National Park Service sites which are in the Interior Department) are administered to provide for resource extraction of various kinds, but this has been in increasingly science based sustainable ways over the years. Forget sustainable forest management. Take it all now!
And they will ignore or change the NPS mission statement putting conservation and preservation first so they can log there too.
A lot of American lumber is cut from yellow pine, a warm climate species that grows in the Southern states. Yellow pine lumber is brittle and splits easily when nails are pounded into it. Carpenters vastly prefer lumber from the northern spruce, pine and fir trees.
Why no linear fit starting May '24? Isn't that the way?
I'm at the International Builders Show right now. Talk of tariffs is muted but present every where. Much of this crowd is focused on the custom home market, but all the major producers are here. Drop in modulares are a hot ticket for Lady's.
"Drop in modulares are a hot ticket for Lady's."
Whut?
'Drop in modulares are a hot ticket' sounds interesting. Please explain.
There was a 2022 housing boom?
Without the benefit of actual research I'm guessing that the drop in the first months of 2024 was interest rate related.