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The progressive era is over. Again.

What happened to the confident march of progressivism that inspired lefty politics for the past couple of decades? It seems to have died out, replaced by a budding rightward movement in American politics.

The explanation is simpler than most observers think: This is what always happens. Episodes of progressivism are rare in American history and usually produce a backlash after a decade or two because they overreach and finally get too far ahead of public opinion.

  • New Deal progressivism was weakened by the war and finally collapsed afterward thanks to perceptions of destructive union activism; softness on communism; and hardline desegregation.
  • The counterculture of the '60s eventually broke on the shoals of good intentions that went too far for most Americans: busing as a way of fighting racism; a continued obsession with "root causes" in the face of rising crime; and a humiliating retreat from Vietnam. Combined with a failing economy it killed progressivism for a generation.
  • The same thing has happened this time but with different issues: the transformation of anti-racism into wokeness; trans activism taken to extreme levels; "defund the police"; and immigration softness that's become indistinguishable from open borders.

The American public welcomes the thrill of progressivism every few decades—but only just so much and only for a short while. Then they retrench. But the good news is that progressive gains are generally permanent. Our most recent surge of progressivism was modest by historical standards but still produced Obamacare, gay marriage, marijuana legalization, and, with an assist from the Supreme Court, growing support for abortion.

Now we're suffering through the usual backlash and politics is moving slightly rightward. Mainstream Democrats can either fight this or accept it. The former guarantees irrelevance while the latter delivers public acceptance at a modest price—modest because the growing lunacy of the Republican Party means Democrats don't have to move far to still seem like a better choice.

It seems like the choice should be easy, right? But it never is.

126 thoughts on “The progressive era is over. Again.

  1. Chris

    Just because the Democratic Party has abandoned its 5-minute flirtation with progressivism and now finds itself in a coin-flip election against a criminally stupid fascist doesn't mean the public is reacting against anything. It just means Democrats are squeamish. The public at large still strongly supports abortion rights and is disgusted by Trump's anti-trans ads. Biden's conversion to Likud may end up costing Harris the election.

  2. jeffreycmcmahon

    Just checking in here to say that this is still a terribly embarrassing post and Kevin Drum doesn't know this because he doesn't read the comments and nobody in his real life bothers to read the blog.

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