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The rise and fall of the DJT empire

What the hell has been going on with Truth Social stock?

DJT has been steadily rising since the end of last month, but then it suddenly spiked up nearly 50% starting last Thursday. Then it plunged back starting Tuesday.

DJT is basically a bet on whether Trump will win the election. But what happened on Thursday to make his fans suddenly think he was a sure winner? And what happened Tuesday to make them lose confidence?

22 thoughts on “The rise and fall of the DJT empire

  1. Dave_MB32

    It's a meme stock. There basically is no business. There are no fundamentals for the market to respond to. As far as I can tell it's whether someone wants to prop up the stock price on price run ups and whether people take profits on sell downs.

    There's not more to it than that.

  2. Chondrite23

    I’ve been watching this. The daily volume used to be about 8M then it jumped to about 20M and now it’s about 100M. The MAGA crowd doesn’t have this much money. I’m guessing some billionaires are buying shares to give Donald a chance to cash out.

    1. DaBunny

      Doesn't he have to report it if he's selling a significant chunk of his stock?

      Or at least...isn't that required by law as it applies to peons like me and thee? Learning that Trump's been neglecting reporting laws would be the least surprising thing ever. But even so, it's a publicly traded company. Seems like there's some chance that Kamala's people would detect him trading?

      1. Josef

        I doubt he will sell before he absolutely has to, and will do it as quietly and quickly as he can. His financial advisors probably already have a contingency plan for both outcomes of the election.

      2. FrankM

        Insiders have to report sales. I'm pretty sure Trump would be considered an insider, but there are no insider transaction reports I could find in the last month. There is a time period in which they have to report sales with the FTC (not sure how long that is), so it may be within that time period.

        Trading volume has indeed gone through the roof. There are a little more than 200 million shares existing, of which Trump owns about half. If he's not selling, that leaves 100 million shares to trade. Trading volume in the last week is about 100 million shares (160 million on 10/29). As Elmer Fudd might say, "There's something skwoowy going on here!". There are three possibilities:

        1. All the available shares are being traded every day (even this would not account for 10/29)
        2. Shares are changing hands many times per day,
        3. Trump is selling

        I'll leave you to guess which is the case.

    2. Art Eclectic

      I would hazard a guess that it's both billionaires propping him up AND a voter suppression effort - news of a surge in surety of a Trump victory based on bets placed helps depress the D turnout.

  3. Josef

    Come November 6th I hope to see and experience the start of the downfall of Donald J Trump! His candidacy, his stock and his wealth. No one is deserving of a healthy slice of humble pie more than Trump. Not that it would humble him in the least.

  4. realrobmac

    This looks like profit taking to me. If the stock really tanked I'd see that as a good sign that insiders really don't think he will win. But insiders don't really know more about what will happen than anyone else.

  5. ruralhobo

    Thursday there wasn't all that much trading, so it could be just buys by a few rich people and then others seeing the stock rise and getting in on the action. Tuesday looks more like lots of people cashing in while they still can. Maybe spooked by the fallout from Trump's MSG rally?

  6. x_minus_t

    I have no evidence of this, but I think that foreign wealthy individuals/governments were pouring money into the stock to drive it back up and then the cultists decided to bail out at $50.

  7. KenSchulz

    Billionaires can buoy the stock with big purchases, then accept shares as collateral for a loan? They’ll lose on both transactions, but the cash will end up in TFG’s pocket. If he gets elected, the fat cats will get their ‘investment’ back in tax cuts.

    1. lawnorder

      There is a lot of what Trump wants to do that depends on a compliant Congress. Even if the Rs end up with notional control of both Houses of Congress, their majorities will be at best slim, and some of the R congresspeople are sane enough not to vote for economically destructive policies and, in the Senate, for really unsuitable nominees like RFK. In other words, further tax cuts may be difficult to get through Congress.

      1. Batchman

        He doesn't need Congress to approve nominees for Cabinet positions. His plan is to fill all slots with "acting" personnel, who don't need confirmation.

  8. Doctor Jay

    Well, 100,000 shares would cost about 3.5 million bucks, and for some people that's not really big money, especially if they think they can create a stampede and recoup some, if not all.

    Furthermore, there are other trades that can be made with options to cut or limit the cost, and even make a profit on the volatility, rather than on the price.

    By that I mean, one makes money when the stock moves a lot, rather than betting on "up" or "down". These trades are well-understood by financial types.

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