The ruble is collapsing:
It recovered slightly yesterday when the Russian central bank intervened, but it's still down 30% since the war started and 20% over just the past couple of months. Western sanctions continue to tighten, driving the ruble ever downward.
That suggests a Trump based opportunity. Buy rubles betting that Trump will cut the sanctions in exchange for Peace in Ukraine. i.e. whatever Putin wants.
Remember this golden oldie from ten days ago:
https://jabberwocking.com/inflation-in-russia-is-kind-of-normal/
?
I understand contrarianism, Kevin! But you seem to be doing the same thing that the Republicans did in their worst Clinton Derangement Syndrome phase, just dismissing anything that seems to give the wrong vibes (maybe the point was raised by a non-Party member, or rhymes with an issue in the US about which we're supposed to pretend something different).
It's beneath you. The election is over, it's time to recalibrate which data sources served you well (or not) over the past three months, and time to be better.
Slowly the sanity is seeping back to some members of the D party (at least those who can be thrown out of their seats...)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/29/seth-moulton-trans-democrats-word-police/
I fully expect the Jabberwocking comments borg to be committed to 2+2=5 for many many years, but like I said, you, Kevin, are better than this.
The D party only returns to being the party of free speech and intellectual exploration if people like you speak up...
And until it does so, it will be the R's that have those votes, because without freedom of speech and freedom of thought, everything else the Ds claim to stand for is MEANINGLESS.
Were you the guy I saw on the subway the other day replying to his own comments?
Please don't feed the troll. It only leaves its droppings to get attention.
"Jabberwocking comments borg"
lol
Tell people you don't want to be taken seriously while...
2+2=4, dumbass.
I really don’t like Russians… every last one is a despicable POS. There are lots of people like that all over, but Russians are at the top of my list today. Trumpy republicans are second. Not that it matters.
So I’ll raise a glass to more Russian death and suffering. It really is long past time to expel all their staff from the US. Make them leave immediately.
Yes I know, trump will allow them back.
The problem with the Russian economy at this point is that it is basically producing nothing except military supplies for the war and even then they're still having to import tons of weapons and supplies from Iran and NK. Most Russians have seen a marked deterioration in their standard of living the past 2 years. Some 150,000 young men have been killed and hundreds of thousands more injured or disabled. There's a real possibility of a major economic-political crisis in Russia when the war ends and hundreds of thousands are thrown out of work or discharged from the army with no civilian economy to return to. A lot of foreign aid will pour in to reconstruct Ukraine, but Russia (and the eastern provinces it has annexed that have been turned into a moonscape) will get nothing and even if some sanctions are eased, things probably won't go back to anything resembling normal as long as Putin is in power.
It's producing natural gas, which apparently the developed world cannot, even if their children's lives depended on, do without.
But we have eventually arrived at the marrow...now we wait for the nukes.
You left out:
- The Central Bank has frozen until 2025 its buying of foreign currencies and is unloading the Yuan.
- The Central Bank's rate is 21% and is expected to go up to 23% by the end of this year.
- Weekly inflation is 0.4% according to Russia's own data.
- Real wages were up 8.4% in September according to Russia's own data.
Maybe that weekly inflation rate is temporary, but if it isn't, we're talking Argentina-level spiraling out of control inflation with an annualized rate of over 100%.
Maybe there's just enough luck on Ukraine's side that Russia's economy goes into a tailspin and forces Putin out, triggering a full pullout.
If that weekly inflation rate is true, and not temporary, the annual inflation rate isn't over 100%. It's over 700%.
I'd check the source for .4%, but I bet dollars to doughnuts that this is (annual_inflation / 52) so compounding is not appropriate.
The actual reason for my incorrect answer is that I dropped a digit, using 1.04 rather than 1.004.
Right? 1.004^52
Can't make a conclusion if it stays the same, is temporary, or is a sign of spiraling Argentina style inflation. But, as fewer men are available in the labor pool, wages will continue to increase. Note that real wages are up 8%. That's because the Russian military is competing with private sector on compensation.
The value finally corresponding to Putin's thoughts on Russian infantry?
I'm waiting for the NY Times to explain that, if Putin's been in power for so long, it's not because he's an autocrat. It's because Navalny and his allies didn't care about an ordinary Russian's economic anxiety.
All currency is a promise to pay you back with something that you will find valuable in the future.
You build an interstate highway for the government, and the government gives you "dollars", which you can then exchange for something of real value in the future.
Evidently, no one believes that Russia is going to have anything of value in the future to trade back for those promissory notes they call Rubles.
Trump will fix it!
The decline in the Ruble doesn't make sense after Putin's most valuable operative just got reelected. There will definitely be a cease fire arrangement during Il Duce's term that will be most favorable to Putin, plus the eliminations of sanctions (with a few new Trump hotels and golf courses to be built in Russia thrown in to grease the deal).
Il Duce will of course not be in office when the enviable full Russian takeover of Ukraine occurs, enabled by the Neville Chamberlain inspired "peace" deal he will impose on Ukraine.
There are other interests pulling the strings on the world stage though. Is China's Xi losing faith in Putin's misadventures?
Something is going on - Aleppo in Syria is now taken over by rebels and I saw a tweet that Bashir might be in Moscow?
"The decline in the Ruble doesn't make sense after Putin's most valuable operative just got reelected. "
It worth noting that Trump doesn't need Putin anymore, and normally he just stops paying at this point. I will not be surprised if he does the same to Putin, even though he used to admire him.
Putin can bribe the Orange High Chancellor with lucrative hotel and golf deals in Russia, and less not forget the "pee" videos he probably has (and perhaps even more embarrassing items the FSB has curated over the years).
Putin is an expert in developing assets, especially a dilutional malignant narcissist, who is so easily a manipulated with flattery and has no moral compass whatsoever.
"pee" video -
Alas, one minor detail in the Mueller Report was that the pee video was most likely mythical. Which rather disappoints me.
Not only is the P video probably mythical, but even if it isn't, its deterrent value is essentially nil, as the presumed existence of that video and its associated activities were covered so extensively in the press and on late night comedy shows that there's nothing more to be leveraged from it.
"Putin can bribe the Orange High Chancellor with lucrative hotel and golf deals in Russia"
If Trump feels he can benefit from being on Ukraine side, this will not be enough.
I am not predicting that it is going to happen, but it looks to me at least 30% chance that it will.
I agree with the bribing Trump on the upside of making Trump more money. But, do you think support for Trump would drop a point if that video came out?
That's not necessarily true.
Someone just needs to give him the idea that if Russia craters we can buy the whole thing cheap.
I don’t think Ukraine or the EU will agree to any phony cease fire. EU will also make up for any withdrawal of support from the US. After Ukraine finally wins the war, EU standing will be much higher, and US standing very much diminished.
That would be a great outcome. I doubt it will happen, but I'd celebrate it if it happens.
If you continue to fail to clearly define your vertical axes, your data geek card will be permanently revoked. There is no acceptable excuse.
And more specifically: Is this saying that from the Russian perspective, imports into Russia cost their citizens 20% more than a month ago, and exports from Russia cost other countries 20% less? (So Russian oil/gas is cheaper, perhaps benefiting Russian government (not sure how this plays out), and Russian consumers in Moscow/St.Petersberg are feeling pain?)
I think it's clear that the vertical axis is rubbles/dollar.
It still should be marked clearly and explicitly.
Wealthy Russian douchebags go on hunger strike to protest cruel fate,
Passengers told the Times they paid between £7,000 and £10,000 . . .
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/11/29/luxury-cruise-line-passengers-antarctica-hunger-strike/
to float around somewhere off the coast of Antarctica when the engine conked out so now they're not going to refuse food until it starts going again and they get to experience icy cold as some kind of expensive novelty.